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External factors to impact Naira next week Oil slips

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Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst at FXTM, comments on External factors to impact Naira next week Oil slips

Emerging market currencies like the Nigerian Naira are likely to seek direction from external factors next week, with emphasis likely to be placed on the breaking development that the United States and North Korea summit has been cancelled by President Trump.

Although North Korea has offered an olive branch to the US, it is still going to be interesting to monitor how investors react to this development.

If they adopt a cautious stance over the upcoming trading session, there is likely going to be less buying demand for emerging market currencies like the Naira. Alternatively, signs of de-escalating tensions between both sides could rekindle risk appetite consequently supporting EM currencies.

Sentiment mixed as North Korea offers olive branch

It’s remarkable that just hours after President Donald Trump suddenly axed his highly anticipated June summit with Kim Jong-Un in Singapore, North Korea unexpectedly offered an olive branch.

North Korea has stated that they remain open-minded in giving “time and opportunity” to the United States and are willing to meet Trump “at any time in any way”. With the nation also calling the planned summit “desperately necessary” to mend the US-North Korea relationship, the doors could still be open for a summit to take place. Markets will be paying very close attention to how the Trump administration responds to North Korea’s conciliatory stance. Any further signs of de-escalating tensions between the US and North Korea could revive risk sentiment.

Asian stocks were on the defensive during early trade, as North Korea’s measured response to the abrupt summit cancellation slightly soothed investor jitters.

European markets rebounded after the olive branch from North Korea and this improving sentiment could support Wall Street in the afternoon.

Sterling quivers as GDP disappoints

This hasalready been a terrible trading week for the Pound, as cooling inflation figures dented expectations over the Bank of England raising UK interest rates in August.

Matters worsened on Friday following reports that UK economic growth dropped to its lowest rate since 2012. UK GDP growth slowed to 0.1% in the first quarter of 2018 according to the second estimate, which immediately damaged buying sentiment towards the Pound. Today’s disappointing growth figures may weigh heavily on sentiment while also forcing investors to scale back bets on a BoE rate hike anytime soon.

Taking a look at the technical picture, the GBPUSD remains bearish on the daily charts as there have been consistently lower lows and lower highs. Repeated weakness below the 1.3400 level could invite a decline towards 1.3320 and 1.3250, respectively.

Dollar steady ahead of Powell speech

King Dollar was steady against a basket of major currencies this morning ahead of the upcoming speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

He will be addressing financial stability and central bank transparency before the Sveriges Riksbank Conference in Stockholm later today.

The Greenback could appreciate further is Powell sounds hawkish and offers fresh insight into the Fed’s monetary policy tightening path beyond June.

With the widening interest rate differential still favouring the Dollar and expectations elevated over an interest rate hike in June, Dollar strength is likely to remain a dominant market theme.

Taking a look at the technical picture, the Dollar Index remains heavily bullish on the daily charts. A decisive breakout above 94.00 could encourage an incline higher towards 94.20 and 94.50, respectively.

Is the Oil bull run over?

The prospect of OPEC and Russia easing supply curbs to counterbalance falling output from Venezuela and potential decline in Iranian exports has exposed oil to downside risks.

Price action suggests that bulls may be struggling to find support from geopolitical risk factors to sustain the current rally.

While initially speculation of tighter global supply was a theme that heavily supported oil, the fundamental drivers could change if OPEC and co. easesupply curbs. With the possibility of rising production from Russia, OPEC and US Shale renewing oversupply concerns, Oil remains exposed to downside risks.

In regard to the technical perspective, WTI Crude is at risk of sinking towards $68 if bulls are unable to maintain control above $70.

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Finance

Godwin Emefiele Disobeyed Direction Of Law With Intent To Harm The Public, He Printed ₦684.5M Using ₦18.9B Says EFCC in fresh charge

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The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission has filed a fresh charge at the High Court of the Federal Capital Territory against the embattled former governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Godwin Emefiele.

EFCC in the charge accused Emefiele of approving the printing of N684,590,000 at the rate of N18.96 billion.

EFCC also alleged that Emefiele broke the law with intent to harm the public during his implementation of the naira swap policy of the administration of former President Muhammadu Buhari.

The anti-graft agency also accused Emefiele of unlawfully approving the withdrawal of N124.8 billion from the Consolidated Revenue Fund of the Federation.

EFCC’s top prosecutor, Rotimi Oyedepo, SAN revealed that Emefiele will be arraigned on a new four-count charge before Justice Hamza Muazu

Counts one to four of the charge, read,

“STATEMENT OF OFFENCE: Public Servant disobeying direction of law with intent to cause injury to the public contrary to and punishable under Section 123 of the Penal Code Law, Cap. 89 Laws of the Federation, 1990.

“PARTICULARS OF THE OFFENCE: That you GODWIN IFEANYI EMEFIELE between the 19th day of October 2022 and 5th March 2023 in Abuja, knowingly disobeyed the direction of Section 19 of the CBN Act, 2007, by approving the printing of N375,520,000.00 pieces of colour swapped N1, 000, at the total cost of N11,052, 068,062 without the recommendation of the Board of Central Bank and the strict approval of the President, Federal Republic of Nigeria which conduct of yours caused injury to the public and you thereby committed an offence.”

This and three other charges were stated against him. They read;

“COUNT 2: “That you, GODWIN IFEANYI EMEFIELE, between the 19th of October 2022 and 5th March 2023 in Abuja, knowingly disobeyed the direction of Section 19 of the Central Bank of Nigeria Act, 2007, by approving the printing of 172,000,000 pieces of colour swapped N500 (Five Hundred Naira) Notes, at the total cost of N4, 471,066,040 without the recommendation of the Board of Central Bank and the strict approval of the President, Federal Republic of Nigeria which conduct of yours caused injury to the public and you thereby committed an offence.

“COUNT 3: “That you GODWIN IFEANYI EMEFIELE between the 19th day of October 2022 and 5th March 2023 in Abuja, knowingly disobeyed the direction of Section 19 of the CBN Act, 2007, by approving the printing of 137,070,000 pieces of colour swapped N200 (Two Hundred Naira) Note, at the total cost of N3, 441, 005, 280 without the recommendation of the Board of Central Bank and the strict approval of the President, Federal Republic of Nigeria which conduct of yours caused injury to the public and you thereby committed an offence.”

“COUNT 4: “That you, GODWIN IFEANYI EMEFIELE, on or about the 7th day of October 2020, in Abuja, within the jurisdiction of this Honorable Court, knowingly disobeyed the direction of Section 80 of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, 1999 (As Amended), by approving the withdrawal of the total sum of N124, 860, 227, 865.16 from the Consolidated Revenue Fund of the Federation in a manner not prescribed by the National Assembly, which conduct of yours caused injury to the public and you thereby committed an offence.”

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Transport

Federal Government To Launch Out 2700 CNG Buses, Tricycles Ahead Of First anniversary Of Tinubu’s Administration

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The Presidency on Sunday said it was ready to launch about 2,700 CNG-powered buses and tricycles before May 29 when President Bola Tinubu turns one year in office.

“All is now ready for delivery of the first set of critical assets for deployment and launch of the CNG initiative ahead of the first anniversary of the Tinubu administration on May 29.”

It said the Federal Government is set to deliver 100 conversion workshops and 60 refuelling sites spread across 18 states before the end of 2024.

The Special Adviser to the President on Information and Strategy, Mr. Bayo Onanuga, revealed this in a statement he signed Sunday titled ‘Presidential CNG initiative set for rollout.’

“From the end of May, Nigeria will take some baby steps to join such nations that already have large fleets of CNG vehicles.

The CNG tricycle
The CNG buses

“All is now ready for delivery of the first set of critical assets for deployment and launch of the CNG initiative ahead of the first anniversary of the Tinubu administration on May 29.

“About 2,500 of the tricycles will be ready before May 29, 2024…working towards delivering 200 units before the first anniversary of the Tinubu administration,” said the Presidency.

He also said that over 600 buses are targeted for production in the first phase which will be accomplished in 2024.

In October 2023, about five months after the removal of the petrol subsidy, President Tinubu launched the Presidential CNG Initiative to deliver cheaper, safer and more climate-friendly energy.

The CNG Initiative was designed to deliver compressed natural gas, especially for mass transit.

The Federal Government earmarked N100bn (part of the N500bn palliative budget) to purchase 5500 CNG vehicles (buses and tricycles), 100 Electric buses and over 20,000 CNG conversion kits, with plans to develop CNG refilling stations and electric charging stations nationwide.

The FG had said the initiative would ease the burden of the increased pump price on the masses.More information added that the creation of a new plant on the Lagos-Ibadan Expressway that will assemble the tricycles while Brilliant EV will assemble electric vehicles when it receives the Semi Knocked Down components.

The Presidency explained further, “The SKD parts manufactured by the Chinese company LUOJIA in partnership with its local partner to support the consortium of local suppliers of CNG tricycles are set for shipment to Nigeria and expected to arrive early in May.

It is expected that before 2027, There’ll be a considerable wave of these buses and tricycles in use.

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Finance

Immigration Office Place Ex Governor, Yahaya Bello On Watchlist While IG Of Police Withdraws All Police Officers Attached To Him

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The Inspector General of Police, Olukayode Egbetokun, has withdrawn all police officers attached to the embattled former Governor of Kogi State, Yahaya Bello.

The order for the withdrawal was contained in a police wireless message. The document with reference number:

“CB:4001/DOPS/PMF/FHQ/ABJ/VOL.48/ 34 reads in part;“IG has ordered the withdrawal of all policemen attached to His Excellency and former Executive Governor of Kogi State, Alhaji Yahaya Bello. Acknowledge compliance and treat with utmost importance.

Please, above, for your information and strict compliance.”

Meanwhile, the Nigerian Immigration Service has placed the former governor on its watchlist.

This comes after the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission on Thursday, April 18, declared him wanted in connection to an alleged case of money laundering to the tune of N80.2bn.

From EFCC

In a circular signed by an Assistant Comptroller of Immigration, DS Umar, for the Comptroller-General, Kemi Nandap, the NIS detailed the former governor’s name, nationality, and passport number.

From National Immigration Office

And read;

“I am directed to inform you that the above-named person has been placed on the watch list.

Suffice to mention that the subject is being prosecuted before the Federal High Court Abuja for conspiracy, breach of trust, and money laundering vide letter Ref; CR; 3000/EFCC/LS/EGCS.1/ TE/Vide/1/279 dated April 18, 2024.

If seen at any entry or exit point, he should be arrested and referred to the Director of Investigation or contact 08036226329/07039617304 for further action.” the circular reads in part.

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