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External factors to impact Naira next week Oil slips

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Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst at FXTM, comments on External factors to impact Naira next week Oil slips

Emerging market currencies like the Nigerian Naira are likely to seek direction from external factors next week, with emphasis likely to be placed on the breaking development that the United States and North Korea summit has been cancelled by President Trump.

Although North Korea has offered an olive branch to the US, it is still going to be interesting to monitor how investors react to this development.

If they adopt a cautious stance over the upcoming trading session, there is likely going to be less buying demand for emerging market currencies like the Naira. Alternatively, signs of de-escalating tensions between both sides could rekindle risk appetite consequently supporting EM currencies.

Sentiment mixed as North Korea offers olive branch

It’s remarkable that just hours after President Donald Trump suddenly axed his highly anticipated June summit with Kim Jong-Un in Singapore, North Korea unexpectedly offered an olive branch.

North Korea has stated that they remain open-minded in giving “time and opportunity” to the United States and are willing to meet Trump “at any time in any way”. With the nation also calling the planned summit “desperately necessary” to mend the US-North Korea relationship, the doors could still be open for a summit to take place. Markets will be paying very close attention to how the Trump administration responds to North Korea’s conciliatory stance. Any further signs of de-escalating tensions between the US and North Korea could revive risk sentiment.

Asian stocks were on the defensive during early trade, as North Korea’s measured response to the abrupt summit cancellation slightly soothed investor jitters.

European markets rebounded after the olive branch from North Korea and this improving sentiment could support Wall Street in the afternoon.

Sterling quivers as GDP disappoints

This hasalready been a terrible trading week for the Pound, as cooling inflation figures dented expectations over the Bank of England raising UK interest rates in August.

Matters worsened on Friday following reports that UK economic growth dropped to its lowest rate since 2012. UK GDP growth slowed to 0.1% in the first quarter of 2018 according to the second estimate, which immediately damaged buying sentiment towards the Pound. Today’s disappointing growth figures may weigh heavily on sentiment while also forcing investors to scale back bets on a BoE rate hike anytime soon.

Taking a look at the technical picture, the GBPUSD remains bearish on the daily charts as there have been consistently lower lows and lower highs. Repeated weakness below the 1.3400 level could invite a decline towards 1.3320 and 1.3250, respectively.

Dollar steady ahead of Powell speech

King Dollar was steady against a basket of major currencies this morning ahead of the upcoming speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

He will be addressing financial stability and central bank transparency before the Sveriges Riksbank Conference in Stockholm later today.

The Greenback could appreciate further is Powell sounds hawkish and offers fresh insight into the Fed’s monetary policy tightening path beyond June.

With the widening interest rate differential still favouring the Dollar and expectations elevated over an interest rate hike in June, Dollar strength is likely to remain a dominant market theme.

Taking a look at the technical picture, the Dollar Index remains heavily bullish on the daily charts. A decisive breakout above 94.00 could encourage an incline higher towards 94.20 and 94.50, respectively.

Is the Oil bull run over?

The prospect of OPEC and Russia easing supply curbs to counterbalance falling output from Venezuela and potential decline in Iranian exports has exposed oil to downside risks.

Price action suggests that bulls may be struggling to find support from geopolitical risk factors to sustain the current rally.

While initially speculation of tighter global supply was a theme that heavily supported oil, the fundamental drivers could change if OPEC and co. easesupply curbs. With the possibility of rising production from Russia, OPEC and US Shale renewing oversupply concerns, Oil remains exposed to downside risks.

In regard to the technical perspective, WTI Crude is at risk of sinking towards $68 if bulls are unable to maintain control above $70.

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Finance

Banks To Now Charge 0.5% Cybersecurity Levy As Directed By CBN; Netizens React

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The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has directed deposit money banks in the country to start charging 0.5% cybersecurity levy on some transactions done by their customers.

The apex bank gave the directive in a circular dated May 6, 2024 and sent to all commercial, merchant, non-interest and payment service banks as well as mobile money operators and payment service providers.

“Following the enactment of the Cybercrime (Prohibition, Prevention, etc) (amendment) Act 2024 and pursuant to the provision of Section 44 (2) (a) of the Act, ‘a levy of 0.5% (0.005) equivalent to a half percent of all electronic transactions value by the business specified in the Second Schedule of the Act’, is to be remitted to the National Cybersecurity Fund (NCF), which shall be administered by the Office of the National Security Adviser (ONSA),” the circular partly read.

The Cybersecurity Levy implementation notice

The apex bank said that the implementation of the levy would start two weeks from the date of the circular.

“The levy shall be applied at the point of electronic transfer origination, then deducted and remitted by the financial institution. The deducted amount shall be reflected in the customer’s account with the narration, ‘Cybersecurity Levy’. Deductions shall commence within two weeks from the date of this circular for all financial institutions and the monthly remittance of the levies collected in bulk to the NCF account domiciled at the CBN by the fifth business day of every subsequent month,” the circular said

The apex bank added that this new levy will not be applied on transactions such as loan disbursements and repayments, salary payments, intra-account transfers within the same bank or between different banks for the same customer, intra-bank transfers between customers of the same bank.

Also exempted from the levy were inter-branch transfers within a bank, cheque clearing and settlements, ⁠Letters of Credits, ⁠Banks’ recapitalisation-related funding only bulk funds movement from collection accounts, savings and deposits including transactions involving long-term investments, among others.

This current implementation however is not sitting well with some netizens as they reacted to the new development.

Here were some of their reactions from X.

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Finance

EFCC Chairman Tasks Nigerian Youths Against Crimes And Fraudulent Acts

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The Chairman of Economic Finance Crime Commission (EFCC), Ola Olukoyede, has stressed the need for Nigerian Youth to see themselves as agents of positive change that have a lot to contribute to the socioeconomic development of the Nation.

Speaking at the 2nd edition of a Leadership Trainings Programme in Abuja, Olukoyede, who was represented by the Head Enlightenment and Re-orientation unit, (EFCC), Aisha Mohammed, said the commission’s dream is to see the youth contribute meaningfully to the society, emphasizing on the need to work together in bringing positive change to society.

The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission Boss declared the readiness of his agency to work with all Stakeholders, including the youth towards changing the narrative and reposition the country to greater exploit.
Also speaking, the representative of the Executive Secretary of Tertiary Education Trust Fund (TETFUND), Sonny Echono, appealed to the youths is to eschew social vices that could deter their full potential in life.

Other speakers at the event, including the Chairperson, Zero Tolerance for Social Immoralities Initiative (ZEITI) Africa, Rasak Jeje called on all stakeholders to join hands in collective pursuit of empowering new generation of leaders to curb the rising tides of social Vice among Nigerian youths.

The Chairperson, Zero Tolerance for Social Immoralities Initiative (ZEITI) Africa, Rasak Jeje made the call while addressing journalists at the 2nd edition of it Leadership Trainings Programme in Abuja on Thursday.
He said the training was aimed to intimate students leaders with knowledge and insights that will help them drive positive change and become exemplary leaders in their respective spheres.

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Finance

AISA Has Refunded The Fees Paid By Yahaya Bello To EFCC

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The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) says the American International School Abuja (AISA) has refunded the fees paid by the immediate past governor of Kogi state, Yahaya Bello, for his children attending the school.

In response to a letter addressed to the Lagos zonal commander of the EFCC, the school said $845,852 was paid in tuition “since the 7th of September 2021 to date”.

AISA said the sum to be refunded is $760,910 because it had deducted educational services already rendered.

“Please forward to us an official written request, with the authentic banking details of the EFCC, for the refund of the above-mentioned funds as previously indicated as part of your investigation into the alleged money laundering activities by the Bello family.

Since the 7th September 2021 to date, $845,852.84 (Eight Hundred and Forty-Five Thousand, Eight Hundred and Fifty Two US Dollars and eighty four cents) in tuition and other fees has been deposited into our Bank account.

We have calculated the net amount to be transferred and refunded to the State, after deducting the educational services rendered as $760,910.84. (Seven Hundred and Sixty Thousand, Nine Hundred and Ten US Dollars and Eighty Four cents).

No further additional fees are expected in respect of tuition as the students’ fees have now been settled until they graduate from ASIA.”

In a chat with The Cable, the spokesperson of the EFCC, Dele Oyewale, confirmed that the school has refunded the money.

‘’The money has been paid into public account,” Dele Oyewale was quoted as saying

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