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Analysis: Nigeria’s economy under Buhari…for better or worse?

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Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst at FXTM, comments on Nigeria’s economy under Buhari…for better or worse?

It is quite thought-provoking how this month marks just over three years since President Muhammadu Buhari secured a historic victory in Nigeria’s state elections.

There was a high degree of optimism over Buhari changing Nigeria for the better by reviving economic growth and fighting corruption &insecurity.

Much has happened over the past few years under the Buhari regime, with the nation going through various trials and tribulations. Confidence over the health of Nigeria’s economy was dealt a painful blow after a currency crisis threatened to cripple the nation. Inflation skyrocketed to worrying levels as the Naira tumbled and economic growth slowedfor the first time in 25 years. While it could be easy to blame the APC for Nigeria’s woes, it must be kept in mind that falling oil prices may have played a leading role.

What remains highly worrying is that the National Assembly has just recently passed a record N9.2 trillion budget for 2018. Such a development could negatively impact confidence over the nation’s political landscape, especially when considering how this budget was the most delayed in 19 years. It is worth noting that the 2017 budget followed a similarly disappointing pattern of delays which could have negatively impacted economic growth.

Speaking about economic growth, for the first time in over two decades Nigeria experienced a recession thanks to the combination of falling oil prices, political uncertainty and a sharply depreciating local currency. A strong suspicion remains that Buhari’s six-month delay to select a cabinet after being sworn in as President on 29 May 2015 weighed heavily on the nation.

His refusal to allow the Central Bank of Nigeria to devalue the Naira when falling oil prices were eroding the nation’s external reserves compounded to Nigeria’s woes. When the CBN eventually de-pegged the Naira in June 2016, the local currency depreciated so badly that the economy and citizens felt the pain.

The ripple effect ultimately created restrictions on international payments while crippling liquidity and repelling foreign investors.

Focusing on the macro economics, Nigeria’s unemployment rate has jumped 18.8% over the past three years, while youth unemployment rate is currently around 33.1%. Inflation rose to gravity-defying levels, from 9.8% in May 2015 to a 12-year high of 18.72% in January 2017.

Although inflation has moderated, dropping to 12.5% April thanks to the CBN’s efforts to promote FX stability, the effects can still be felt on the economy. While the country displayed its resilience againstthe global arena by staging a rebound in 2017 thanks to higher oil prices, the latest GDP report for Q1 of 2018 disappointed, by sliding 0.16%.

The truth is, Nigeria needs to implement more fiscal and monetary measures with a strong focus on agricultural development to boost economic growth.

Today, the nation proudly boasts foreign exchange stability and moderating inflationary pressures;this could be off the back of recovering oil prices.

Painful lessons fromthe past regarding falling oil prices should act as a wake-up call for the nation to break away from oil reliance and diversify into a self-sustaining economy.

The World Bank Group has expressed satisfaction over the performance of the Nigerian economy, while Fitch Ratings has affirmed Nigeria’s long-term foreign currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at B+ with a negative outlook.

With the implementation of the new Economic Growth and Recovery Plan (EGRP) supporting trade and capital flows, the outlook for Nigeria remains encouraging.

The Central Bank of Nigeria has the ability to boost economic growth by cutting interest rates. With inflationary pressures slowly becoming a theme of the past and economic data improving, it becomes a matter of when, rather than if, interest rates are cut.

President Buhari will be seeking a second term in office in elections next year and it will be interesting to see if he secures another historic victory. Whatever the outcome of the election, the future remains bright for Nigeria.

GrassRoots.ng is on a critical mission; to objectively and honestly represent the voice of ‘grassrooters’ in International, Federal, State and Local Government fora; heralding the achievements of political and other leaders and investors alike, without discrimination. This daily, digital news publication platform serves as the leading source of up-to-date information on how people and events reflect on the global community. The pragmatic articles reflect on the life of the community people, covering news/current affairs, business, technology, culture and fashion, entertainment, sports, State, National and International issues that directly impact the locals.

Transport

CNG Price Increases to ₦450 as Market Pressures Mount

By ORJI ISRAEL

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CNG Bus

…FG Ends Subsidy Support

The federal government’s decision to remove subsidy support on Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) has triggered a sharp rise in pump prices, with motorists now paying as much as ₦450 per standard cubic metre (scm) across major cities.

For many Nigerians, the development is a fresh blow to household budgets already strained by high petrol and diesel costs.

Motorists and Transport Operators React

At a CNG refilling station in Lagos, commercial driver Ibrahim Yusuf expressed frustration:
“We switched to CNG because it was affordable after petrol subsidy was removed. Now at ₦450, it’s no longer the relief we hoped for.”

Transport unions are warning that fare adjustments may be inevitable as operators struggle with rising operating costs, a situation that could further fuel inflation in food and essential goods.

Why the Price Jumped

According to industry experts, the spike in CNG prices is driven by several key factors:

Subsidy Removal: Government’s withdrawal of support has exposed consumers to full market pricing.

Rising Distribution Costs: Inadequate infrastructure and high logistics expenses for transporting gas have pushed prices upward.

Exchange Rate Pressures: The weaker naira continues to inflate the cost of equipment and technology used in gas processing and distribution.

Growing Demand: With thousands of vehicles converting from petrol to CNG, demand has quickly outpaced supply.

Government’s Position

Officials say the subsidy removal is part of broader reforms to reduce fiscal pressure and encourage private investment in the gas value chain.

The Presidential CNG Initiative (PCNGI) has promised to accelerate the rollout of new refilling stations and conversion workshops nationwide to ease supply constraints and stabilize prices.

Energy policy analyst Dr. Amina Adediran noted:
“In the short term, consumers will feel the pinch, but if government delivers on infrastructure expansion, CNG could still become a cheaper and cleaner alternative to petrol.”

What Lies Ahead

As CNG prices climb, Nigerians brace for higher transport fares and ripple effects across the economy. Analysts warn that unless urgent investments are made in infrastructure and distribution, the government’s clean energy transition plan could lose public support.

For now, commuters and businesses must adjust to the new reality, where the promise of cheaper CNG fuel faces its toughest test yet.

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Energy

Nigeria Loses Billions to Gas Flaring: Expert Urges Adoption of Global Best Practices

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Nigeria loses billions to Gas Flaring

Nigeria continues to grapple with the economic, environmental, and social costs of gas flaring despite its status as one of Africa’s top producers of natural gas.

Recent data reveals that in 2024 alone, the country flared natural gas valued at $1.05 billion, equivalent to electricity generation potential of 30.1 thousand GigaWatt hours, enough to drastically reduce the nation’s chronic power shortages.

The penalties associated with gas flaring, estimated at $602 million, remain largely unenforced, raising concerns about regulatory weakness and ineffective oversight.

The Nigerian government has introduced several policies, including the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) and the Gas Flaring, Venting & Methane Emissions (Prevention of Waste and Pollution) Regulations, 2023, aimed at tackling this menace. Additionally, the Nigerian Gas Flare Commercialization Project (NGFCP) was launched as a market-based solution to allocate flared gas to third-party investors for industrial and power sector use. Yet, implementation challenges have stifled progress.

In an exclusive commentary on the issue, Dr. Saheed Abudu, a researcher and lawyer specializing in Energy and Natural Resources Law and International Investment Law, and former researcher at the Tulane Center for Energy Law, described gas flaring as a symptom of Nigeria’s regulatory inertia. “If Nigeria is to truly end this wasteful practice, it must look beyond its borders and learn from the successful blueprints of other oil and gas powerhouses. The framework of the NGFCP is theoretically sound, but without strong enforcement and political determination, it risks becoming another unfulfilled policy,” Dr. Abudu said.

He noted that the persistent lack of political will, overreliance on International Oil Companies (IOCs), and repeated shifting of flare-out deadlines undermine Nigeria’s credibility. “The continuous revisions of flare-out deadlines—from 2025 now extended to 2030—together with the reluctance of producers to pay fines, underscore a regulatory environment that has failed to hold operators accountable. These delays communicate that compliance is optional,” he emphasized.

Dr. Abudu further highlighted deep-rooted institutional problems. “Significant bottlenecks persist, including administrative delays, overlapping regulatory mandates, and above all, resistance from producers who see flare gas utilization as disruptive to their core oil operations. Inadequate infrastructure for gas gathering and distribution compounds the problem, making many flare sites commercially unviable without massive upfront investments,” he explained.

Drawing comparisons with other resource-rich nations, Dr. Abudu argued that Nigeria must adopt proven strategies. He explained that Norway adopted a top-down approach where no gas utilization plan meant no project approval, and combined this with a stringent carbon tax that forced companies to innovate and invest in capture technologies. Saudi Arabia, through its state-owned oil giant Saudi Aramco, pursued a national strategy that treated gas as a resource, not waste. With a master gas gathering plan and billions invested in infrastructure, flaring was phased out, reflecting the level of corporate-level commitment Nigeria has lacked. Angola, he added, offers the most relevant case for Nigeria. After decades of flaring, Angola rolled out its National Gas Master Plan, partnered with international investors, and, with World Bank support, built the infrastructure needed to monetize gas. Their progress, he said, proves that resource stewardship is possible with political will and foreign partnerships.

Dr. Abudu outlined a roadmap Nigeria could adopt to reverse its losses and position itself as a competitive gas economy. “Nigeria must transition to stricter enforcement of regulations, making flare penalties genuinely punitive rather than symbolic. No new oil project should proceed without a credible gas utilization plan. The government must also act as a catalyst, as Angola did, by incentivizing investment in gas infrastructure and ensuring that producers cannot simply evade their obligations,” he stressed.

He added that empowering third-party investors to participate in gas commercialization is key, but this requires deliberate policies to strengthen the domestic gas market. “The government must make the Nigerian gas market more competitive and attractive for investors. Incentives, security of investments, and legal certainty are crucial. Without these, potential investors will continue to shy away, leaving the problem unresolved,” he said.

Experts agree that ending gas flaring is not just about environmental sustainability but also about unlocking economic potential. If properly harnessed, flared gas could power industries, create jobs, and generate billions in revenue. Dr. Abudu concluded with a stark warning: “The flames burning across the Niger Delta are not merely an environmental hazard; they represent wasted economic opportunities and human development potential. Nigeria cannot afford to treat gas flaring as business as usual. It must move from rhetoric to decisive action.”

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Transport

We Are Saddened by the Passing of Ruth Otabor – Dangote

Ruth was hit by a Dangote Cement truck on August 13, 205 close to her school, Auchi Polytechnic.

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dangote trucks

The management of Dangote Cement Plc has said that it is saddened by the passing this evening of Ruth Otabor, who was injured in a recent road incident involving one of its trucks in Auchi, Edo State.

Ruth was hit by a Dangote Cement truck on August 13, 205 close to her school, Auchi Polytechnic.

In a statement issued this evening in Lagos, the management of Dangote Cement said “on behalf of the entire Dangote Group, we extend our heartfelt condolences to her family, friends and loved ones at this difficult time”.

Throwing some light on what the company has been doing to save the life of Ruth, the management said that “since the accident, our officials and insurance partners have been by her side, covering all financial and medical costs and supporting her family”.

It disclosed that arrangement had been made for her to be flown to India for advanced treatment pending medical clearance by her doctors, but regretted that “despite these efforts and Ruth’s brave fight to live, we lost her today”.

The management said: “At Dangote Group, safety, accountability, and compassion remain at the core of our operations”, adding that “we remain committed to strengthening our safety systems and supporting those affected in moment of tragedy”.

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