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Analysis: Will China’s Renminbi ring the alarm bell?

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Hussein Sayed, Chief Market Strategist at FXTM, comments on the sharp depreciation of the Renminbi.

The slight gains in U.S. equities on Monday failed to influence Asian investors as trade fears and the Renminbi’s slide continued to drive risk aversion.

This sharp depreciation in the Chinese currency is worrying investors. In August 2015, USDCNY appreciated from 6.21 to 6.44, a two-day gain of 3.85%. As a result, global stock markets sold off sharply as investors feared the beginning of a currency war.

With trade tensions increasing day by day, Beijing might be playing this game as a tool in its trade war with the U.S. However, such a strategy will be a double-edged sword as it might also lead to a flight of capital which the PBoC is well aware of.

Although the Chinese currency depreciated 3.23% in June, it didn’t sound quite so alarming, given that the Dollar appreciated against most major currencies in May and June.

Going forward it’s going to be about the pace and magnitude of the currency moves that will drive equity markets. CNYUSD traded at 6.70 at the time of writing and will keep a close eye on 6.96, the lowest level reached in January 2017.

Caution is warranted at this current stage, as the ongoing trade dispute moves from announcements to implementations. Canada confirmed over the weekend that it had imposed tariffs on U.S. exports worth 16.6 billion CAD.

The U.S. is set to impose a 25% tariff on up to $34 billion of Chinese products on Friday. Meanwhile, there are reports that the European Commission will impose tariffs on nearly $300 billion on U.S. products if President Trump targets the European auto industry. This sounds like a serious trade war!

Major currency markets were steady early Tuesday with the Euro, Pound, and Yen trading in narrow ranges against the dollar.

The economic calendar doesn’t hold tier one data today, but it’s worth watching the Eurozone retail sales figures after consumer confidence dipped to its lowest level since last October and Oil prices are making another attempt to reach $80.

Oil bulls seem to have returned after Libya suspended Oil exports from two key ports. If Libya’s Oil doesn’t return fast to the market it will be an important test to OPEC’s spare capacity, especially given that output from Venezuela and Iran is expected to fall significantly in the next couple of months.

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Transport

Federal Government To Launch Out 2700 CNG Buses, Tricycles Ahead Of First anniversary Of Tinubu’s Administration

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The Presidency on Sunday said it was ready to launch about 2,700 CNG-powered buses and tricycles before May 29 when President Bola Tinubu turns one year in office.

“All is now ready for delivery of the first set of critical assets for deployment and launch of the CNG initiative ahead of the first anniversary of the Tinubu administration on May 29.”

It said the Federal Government is set to deliver 100 conversion workshops and 60 refuelling sites spread across 18 states before the end of 2024.

The Special Adviser to the President on Information and Strategy, Mr. Bayo Onanuga, revealed this in a statement he signed Sunday titled ‘Presidential CNG initiative set for rollout.’

“From the end of May, Nigeria will take some baby steps to join such nations that already have large fleets of CNG vehicles.

The CNG tricycle
The CNG buses

“All is now ready for delivery of the first set of critical assets for deployment and launch of the CNG initiative ahead of the first anniversary of the Tinubu administration on May 29.

“About 2,500 of the tricycles will be ready before May 29, 2024…working towards delivering 200 units before the first anniversary of the Tinubu administration,” said the Presidency.

He also said that over 600 buses are targeted for production in the first phase which will be accomplished in 2024.

In October 2023, about five months after the removal of the petrol subsidy, President Tinubu launched the Presidential CNG Initiative to deliver cheaper, safer and more climate-friendly energy.

The CNG Initiative was designed to deliver compressed natural gas, especially for mass transit.

The Federal Government earmarked N100bn (part of the N500bn palliative budget) to purchase 5500 CNG vehicles (buses and tricycles), 100 Electric buses and over 20,000 CNG conversion kits, with plans to develop CNG refilling stations and electric charging stations nationwide.

The FG had said the initiative would ease the burden of the increased pump price on the masses.More information added that the creation of a new plant on the Lagos-Ibadan Expressway that will assemble the tricycles while Brilliant EV will assemble electric vehicles when it receives the Semi Knocked Down components.

The Presidency explained further, “The SKD parts manufactured by the Chinese company LUOJIA in partnership with its local partner to support the consortium of local suppliers of CNG tricycles are set for shipment to Nigeria and expected to arrive early in May.

It is expected that before 2027, There’ll be a considerable wave of these buses and tricycles in use.

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Finance

Immigration Office Place Ex Governor, Yahaya Bello On Watchlist While IG Of Police Withdraws All Police Officers Attached To Him

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The Inspector General of Police, Olukayode Egbetokun, has withdrawn all police officers attached to the embattled former Governor of Kogi State, Yahaya Bello.

The order for the withdrawal was contained in a police wireless message. The document with reference number:

“CB:4001/DOPS/PMF/FHQ/ABJ/VOL.48/ 34 reads in part;“IG has ordered the withdrawal of all policemen attached to His Excellency and former Executive Governor of Kogi State, Alhaji Yahaya Bello. Acknowledge compliance and treat with utmost importance.

Please, above, for your information and strict compliance.”

Meanwhile, the Nigerian Immigration Service has placed the former governor on its watchlist.

This comes after the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission on Thursday, April 18, declared him wanted in connection to an alleged case of money laundering to the tune of N80.2bn.

From EFCC

In a circular signed by an Assistant Comptroller of Immigration, DS Umar, for the Comptroller-General, Kemi Nandap, the NIS detailed the former governor’s name, nationality, and passport number.

From National Immigration Office

And read;

“I am directed to inform you that the above-named person has been placed on the watch list.

Suffice to mention that the subject is being prosecuted before the Federal High Court Abuja for conspiracy, breach of trust, and money laundering vide letter Ref; CR; 3000/EFCC/LS/EGCS.1/ TE/Vide/1/279 dated April 18, 2024.

If seen at any entry or exit point, he should be arrested and referred to the Director of Investigation or contact 08036226329/07039617304 for further action.” the circular reads in part.

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Finance

BREAKING: EFCC Declares Former Kogi State’s Governor, Yahaya Bello Wanted

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The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission has declared a former governor of Kogi State, Yahaya Bello, wanted for offences relating to economic and financial crimes.

This was contained in a notice posted on the commission’s official Facebook page on Thursday.

The notice read, “The public is hereby notified that Yahaya Adoza Bello (former Governor of Kogi State), whose photograph appears above is wanted by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission in connection with alleged case of Money Laundering to the tune of N80,246,470,089.88

“Bello, a 48-year-old Ebira man, is a native of Okenne Local Government of Kogi State.

“His last known address is: 9, Benghazi Street, Wuse Zone 4, Abuja.”

The notice asked anybody with useful information about the former governor’s whereabouts to contact any of the commission’s offices across the country.

The anti-graft commission had earlier stated that it would, on Thursday (today), arraign the former governor before a Federal High Court sitting in Abuja.

This was after the EFCC was granted a warrant of arrest by the Federal High Court in Abuja to apprehend the former governor.

Punch reported that The agency’s team of lawyers, led by Kemi Pinheiro, SAN, during the proceedings on Thursday, said that EFCC operatives were prepared to carry out the arrest warrant for the former governor, even if it requires the use of force.

Bello and three other suspects, Ali Bello, Dauda Suliman, and Abdulsalam Hudu, will be arraigned before Justice Emeka Nwite.

They face 19 counts related to money laundering to the tune of N80,246,470,088.88.

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