GRBusiness
Is Nigeria exposed to the Emerging Market chaos?
Written by Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst at FXTM
It has certainly been an explosively volatile trading quarter thus far as investors juggled with global trade tensions, Dollar strength and chaos across emerging markets.
The simmering trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies fuelled global risk aversion while a brutal sell-off in the EM space rattled investor confidence.
With fears mounting over a full-blown trade war triggering global instability and negatively impacting growth, emerging markets especially remain under extreme pressure. Fears remain elevated over the turmoil in Turkey and Argentina spreading like a virus across developing and developed nations. With the South African economy already descending into a recession, will Nigeria be the next economy to take a hit?
Throughout the third quarter of 2018, Nigeria has kept afloat with GDP expanding 1.5% during Q2 and inflation easing 11.14%.
Although the nation’s external reserve dropped to the lowest since March to $45 billion, it still remains at manageable levels. With oil prices somewhat supported by geopolitics and the Naira displaying a degree of stability against the Dollar, the outlook looks somewhat encouraging.
However, external risks in the form of an appreciating Dollar, prospects of higher interest rates and trade tensions could cripple Nigeria’s fragile recovery.
Contagion fears stemming from the EM selloff may force investors to scale back on investing in emerging markets, including Nigeria, while capital outflows could complicate the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)’s effort to defend the Naira. Although expectations were initially elevated over the CBN cutting interest rates in the second half of 2018 to stimulate growth, the current global and domestic economic landscape could force the central bank to maintain the status quo.
A CBN rate cut will widen the interest rate differential with the Federal Reserve, ultimately accelerating capital outflows and threating price stability. With inflation also expected to rebound thanks to election spending, some even feel the CBN may end up hiking rates instead.
Referring to price stability, the Naira, like most other emerging market currencies, remains impacted by external forces. Although the local currency has barely budged against the Dollar, this is based on the CBN’s repeated intervention in the FX markets.
While this strategy could ensure the local currency remains supported in the short term, Nigeria’s external reserves are already feeling the pressure. On the plus side, with Nigeria achieving a current account surplus, the Naira’s punishment may not be as severe as those currencies belonging to markets with a high account deficit.
Although Nigeria’s economic prospects remain tied to Oil prices, the upcoming presidential elections could play a leading role in determining if the nation is able to conclude this year on a firm footing.
The increased spending ahead of the February elections will most likely be a welcome development for economic growth. If Oil prices remain at current levels and support both government revenue and consumption, this may stimulate the recovery further.
The largest economy in Africa still has the ability to shock the world stage this year. While it is widely known that the cure to Nigeria’s illness – Oil dependency – can be found in economic diversification, the correct steps must be taken while the conditions are still accommodative.
As the third trading quarter of 2018 slowly comes to an end, global sentiment is likely to remain heavily influenced by U.S.-China trade tensions and the emerging market rout. With the U.S. Federal Reserve expected to raise interest rates this month, the CBN’s effort to defend the Naira may be obstructed.
Energy
NNPC Ltd Set to Supply 100mmscf/d Gas to Dangote Refinery
…10-year Deal to Boost Local Production, Revamp Industrial Growth, reports Ikenna Oluka
The NNPC Gas Marketing Limited (NGML), a subsidiary of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited, has successfully executed a Gas Sale and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) with Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals FZE.
The agreement, signed by the Managing Director, NGML, Barr. Justin Ezeala and the President/CEO of the Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote on Tuesday at the Corporate Head Office of Dangote in Falomo, Lagos State, outlines the supply of natural gas for power generation and feedstock at the Dangote Refinery, in Ibeju-Lekki, Lagos State.
This major milestone is in line with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s policy of utilizing Nigeria’s abundant gas resources towards revamping the nation’s industrial growth and kickstarting its economic prosperity.
This development, which sees a huge investment of this nature penned with zero capital expenditure (CAPEX) outlay, has been described by many as unprecedented in the history of NGML or any gas Local Distribution Company (LDC) in the country.
Under the terms of the agreement, NGML will supply 100 million standard cubic feet per day (MMSCF/D), 50MMSCF/D being firm supply and the rest 50MMSCF/D interruptible natural gas supply to the refinery for an initial period of 10 years, with options for renewal and growth.
This collaboration is a significant step toward ensuring the operational success of the Dangote Refinery and enhancing Nigeria’s domestic gas utilization.
NNPC Ltd, through NGML, its gas marketing subsidiary, continues to lead efforts in promoting the use of domestic gas to support industries and businesses nationwide.
The agreement represents a milestone for both NNPC Ltd and Dangote Refinery, aligning with their shared commitment to boosting local production and providing vital products for the benefit of all Nigerians.
It is also a further proof of NGML’s unwavering commitment to business excellence and fulfilling NNPC Ltd’s core mandate of ensuring Nigeria’s energy security through the execution of strategic gas projects across the country.
Women in Maritime Africa (WIMAfrica), in a significant step forward for female representation in the Maritime field, held a strategic meeting with SIFAX Group at the SIFAX headquarters on November 12th, 2023.
The two organizations aim to foster mentorship, sponsorship, and skills development programs that will empower women to pursue and excel in maritime careers, where female representation remains below 1%. Key figures from WIMAfrica, including Continental Vice President Mrs. Carolyn Ufere and Nigeria’s President Mrs. Rollens Macfoy, emphasized the need for corporate partnerships to expand access to training and professional networks for women. SIFAX’s Coordinating Director, Mrs. Wunmi Eniola-Jegede, expressed the Group’s commitment to gender inclusivity and highlighted the presence of women in leadership roles across its various sectors.
In closing, WIMAfrica extended an invitation for SIFAX Group to support its upcoming conference in Lagos, themed “New Economy and Moving Forward for the Next Generation,” which seeks to inspire young women to explore maritime career paths like engineering and marine security. The collaboration between WIMAfrica and SIFAX Group marks a crucial move toward an inclusive future in Africa’s maritime industry.
… Mbah is godsent to Nsukka zone- Igwe Asadu
… You’ve proven yourself more Nsukka than any Nsukka man- Ezenta Ezeani
… Enugu has suddenly become a reference point for transformational projects – Dennis Agbo
… We’ll deliver on schedule and quality – Contractor
Governor of Enugu State, Dr. Peter Mbah, has flagged-off the construction and dualisation of the 43.7km Penoks-Abakpa Nike-Ugwogo-Nike-Opi Nsukka Road with streetlights and 18-month completion timeframe in line with his administration’s vision to make the state the premier destination for investment, business, tourism, and living.
Speaking during the flag-off ceremony at Opi attended by political heavy weights and leaders of Nsukka Zone, Mbah stressed that the the project, which includes straightening the of many bends, would drastically reduce accidents and criminality on the road.
“In the build-up to the election and in my acceptance speech after my election, we made a pledge that we are going to dualise the Penoks-Abakpa-Ugwogo-Opi-Nsukka Road because . we realised from the outset that if we had to grow this economy to an exponential height, no section of this state should be left behind, more so an economic hub like Nsukka Zone. So, all we are doing here today is connecting those dots,” he said.
Mbah regretted that a trip from Enugu to Nsukka presently takes over an hour, hence the decision to do the 3.6km from the Penoks Junction all the way to the T-Junction flyover in addition to the 41km Abakpa Nike-Opi Nsukka Road to reduce travel time to about 30 minutes and make it possible for the people to comfortably live and work in Enugu and vice versa.
He also noted that his administration’s grassroot-based development and economic model placed the Enugu North Zone at an advantage.
“We are doing projects based on electoral wards. Guess who are the greatest beneficiaries of this model? It is the Nsukka zone. You have 102 electoral wards. That means you will end up with 102 smart schools, 102 Type 2 Primary Healthcare Centres, over 1,000km of roads based since we are additionally going to do at least 10km of roads per ward,” he remarked.
In his remark, the traditional ruler of Edem-Ani and Chairman, Enugu State Traditional Rulers Council, Igwe Samuel Asadu, said, “The people of Nsukka cultural zone and Enugu North Senatorial District never imagined the possibility of this life-time project. The only way we can pay you back is that you do not need to come to campaign here for your second tenure because we are all going to do that for you. You are Godsent to the people of Nsukka, Enugu State and Nigeria at large.”
Also speaking, the Deputy Speaker of the Enugu State House of Assembly, Hon. Ezeani Ezenta, noted that the governor had shut the mouths of naysayers.
“I feel emotional because a lot of things were said during the election. But today, by your good work, you have proved yourself even more Nsukka than any other Nsukka man,” he emphasised.
On his part, former Deputy Governor of Enugu State, Chief Okechukwu Itanyi, described the project as “gigantic, huge, unbelievable and marvelous,” noting that it would open Nsukka Zone and the state to the world.
“This is a legacy project. Your name will never die. Your spirit shall never die. We will continue to give you support,” he added.
Other speakers, including the Chairman of Nsukka Nsukka LGA, Hon. Jude Asogwa, former Secretaries to the State Government, Dr. Dan Shere and Prof. Simon Ortuanya, among others extolled the initiative.
Significantly, in a press statement he personally issued on Monday, Member representing Igboeze North/Udenu Federal Constituency on the platform of the Labour Party, Hon. Dennis Agbo, described the road as “a transformational project, which will greatly facilitate commerce, ease mass transit and evacuation of farm produce by our hard working farmers as well as fight crime and criminality.“
“Our governor has clearly demonstrated his uncanny ability to see and unleash the enormous potential of our dear state and people. It is heartwarming to note that Enugu has suddenly become a frontline state and a reference point for transformational project initiatives,” he stated.
The Member representing Nkanu East/Nkanu West Federal Constituency and Leader of the Enugu State Caucus of the National Assembly, Hon
Nnoli Nnaji, expressed the total delight of the federal lawmakers at the governor’s development initiatives and pledged their total support for him to move the state forward.
Meanwhile the CEO of COMAG Construction Company, Cosmas Agu pledged to deliver a high quality project and on schedule.
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