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Nigeria ends 2018 on a cautious note; 2019 elections in focus

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It has been another monumental year for the Nigerian economy which continued to display resilience against domestic and external headwinds.

The healthy combination of easing inflationary pressures, foreign exchange stability and rising commodity prices initially stabilized Nigeria’s macro fundamentals.

With domestic conditions clearly improving and foreign investor appetite increasing, expectations were elevated over the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) cutting interest rates to stimulate further growth.

The outlook for Nigeria looked highly encouraging up until mid Q2 2018 when economic growth slowed for the first time since the end of the recession. The deceleration in growth acted as a critical wakeup call to speed up efforts in diversifying away from oil reliance.

However, sentiment was dented further by the repeated delay of the 2018 budget which was finally passed in June 2018. Although Nigeria managed to hold its ground during the first half of 2018, it must be kept in mind that the nation found itself vulnerable to external shocks – namely an appreciating Dollar and oil price volatility. An appreciating Dollar, global trade tensions and prospects of higher US interest rates punished many emerging markets in 2018 with Nigeria falling into the category. Although the Naira witnessed stability despite an appreciating Dollar, this came at a heavy price to the CBN in the form of falling external reserves.

Global trade tensions presented a significant risk to Nigeria, especially when considering how the United States and China remain its biggest trading partners. With a trade war threatening global economic growth and demand for commodities, this presented challenges to Nigeria which remained heavily depended on earnings from oil exports. While there was scope for the CBN to cut interest rates to boost growth, this window of opportunity was missed when inflationary pressures returned.

Focusing on macro fundamentals, the picture looks somewhat encouraging with GDP expected to rise 2% in 2018. Signs of Non-Oil sectors contributing to growth will be a welcome development that highlights how Nigeria remains on a quest to break away from oil reliance.

With Nigeria’s economic resilience potentially stimulating investor risk appetite, the Nigerian Stock Exchange has the opportunity to rebound in 2019.

Although manufacturing production decreased 1.7% in September, a rebound could be in the cards as increased government spending ahead of the presidential elections boosts economic growth.

In regards to CBN policy, falling oil prices are seen weighing on the Naira’s peg against the Dollar on the official exchange. This may complicate the CBN’s effort to defend the Naira on the parallel markets in 2019. While a weaker Dollar could limit capital outflows, falling oil prices are poised to shave government revenues.

Focusing on oil prices, the outlook remains tilted to the downside amid oversupply fears and concerns over weaker oil demand. With markets struggling to find signs of the oil market rebalancing following OPEC and Russia’s deal to cut production by 1.2 million barrels per day and global growth fears fuelling concerns over falling demand, oil prices remain fundamentally bearish. Severely depressed oil prices have raised concerns over Nigeria’s ability to move forward with the 2019 budget which pegged oil prices at $60 per barrel. With falling oil prices eroding government revenues, Nigeria’s Excess Crude Account (ECA), which has already depleted by roughly 73% in three weeks, is seen falling further.

Although the short-term outlook paints a gloomy picture, as we enter the New Year there is still some light at the end of the tunnel. With diversification in motion, government spending expected to increase and infrastructure developments in the pipeline, the longer-term outlook remains bright.

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Tinubu Launches Personal Income Tax Calculator to Improve Compliance, Fairness

By ORJI ISRAEL

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Bola Ahmed Tinubu
President Bola Tinubu

President Bola Tinubu has launched a Personal Income Tax Calculator to help Nigerians work out their tax obligations under the new tax law.

The tool is expected to make compliance easier and improve transparency in the system.

In a post on his X page, the president said the calculator shows how the recent reforms protect low-income earners while ensuring fairness.

“A fair tax system must never punish poverty or weigh down the most vulnerable. With the new tax laws I recently signed, taking effect from January 2026, we have lifted this burden and created a path of equity, fairness, and true redistribution in our economy,” Tinubu said.

Some months ago, he signed four major tax bills into law to bring Nigeria’s scattered tax system under one framework. These include the Nigeria Tax Administration Law, which sets out a uniform process for tax administration across federal, state, and local governments; the Nigeria Revenue Service (Establishment) Bill, which replaces the current Federal Inland Revenue Service Act with a stronger, more independent revenue agency; and the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) and Joint Revenue Board (Establishment) Bill, which creates a formal structure for cooperation between revenue bodies at all levels.

The introduction of the tax calculator, together with these reforms, is expected to reduce confusion for both individuals and businesses, while also making it easier for them to meet their obligations and contribute to national growth.

Tinubu added that the reforms are part of building renewed hope for the economy and urged Nigerians to trust in the country’s future for themselves and their families.

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FIRS e-Invoicing Hits 20% Adoption in Two Weeks

Reporter: SANDRA ANI

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VAT controversy | FIRS e-Invoicing

The Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) says that no fewer than 1,000 companies, representing 20% of total eligible firms, have begun integrating its newly launched electronic invoicing  (e-invoicing) system less than two weeks after it went live.

The FIRS e-invoicing platform, which went live on August 1, 2025, after a successful pilot phase that began in November 2024, was designed to modernise Nigeria’s tax administration, curb evasion, and enhance transparency in revenue generation. It also provides the FIRS with real-time visibility into commercial transactions, ensuring authenticity and completeness of invoices.

According to a statement by Dare Adekanmbi, special adviser on Media to FIRS Chairman Zacch Adedeji, at least 1,000 companies, representing 20% of more than 5,000 eligible firms, have already adopted the system and begun integrating with the FIRS platform.

Adekanmbi noted that the initiative, also known as the Merchant-Buyer Model, will be rolled out in phases. “Large taxpayers, which are companies with annual turnover of N5 billion and more, are expected to be the first to be onboarded on the platform,” he said.

FIRS revealed that MTN Nigeria was the first taxpayer to transmit live electronic invoices to the platform, while Huawei Nigeria and IHS Nigeria have concluded test transmissions and are expected to go live soon.

The agency added that the initial compliance deadline of August 1, 2025, has been extended by three months to accommodate companies currently facing onboarding challenges. The new deadline is now November 1, 2025.

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NGX Boss, Umaru Kwairanga, to Chair Business Journal Fintech Roundtable 2025

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NGX Boss, Umaru Kwairanga
NGX Boss, Umaru Kwairanga

Dr. Umaru Kwairanga, Group Chairman, Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX) will Chair the 2nd Business Journal Fintech & Financial Inclusion Roundtable 2025 scheduled for Friday, August 29, 2025 at Oriental Hotel, Lekki, Lagos. Time is 10-am prompt.

The theme of the Roundtable is: Fintech & Financial Inclusion: The Opportunities & Challenges for Nigeria.

In a statement, Prince Cookey, Publisher/Editor-in-Chief of Business Journal Media Group said the choice of Umaru Kwairanga to chair the event is a reflection of his immense and chequered journey in the Nigerian economic system over the years.

“Dr. Umaru Kwairanga is a noted player in the Nigerian economy and financial services sector. Over the years, he has carved a positive niche in driving the narrative in national policy formulation, implementation and review. He remains a worthy point of reference and role model to current and future players in the Nigerian economy.”

Alhaji (Dr.) Umaru Kwairanga, Sarkin Fulani Gombe and Group Chairman, Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX), is a notable player in the Nigerian corporate world, a thorough-bred professional and a prominent community leader in Gombe State and the North East region.

He has served at the highest levels of the banking, pension, investment, manufacturing and commercial sectors of Nigeria’s economy. He is the current Chairman of the Nigerian Exchange Group Plc, Nigeria’ oldest stock exchange and also Chairman of Tangerine General Insurance Limited.

The NGX Chairman is also a Director on the Boards of First Bank Senegal Limited, Tangerine Apt Pensions Limited and the Group Managing Director of Finmal Finance Services Limited.  

He is a past Chairman of Ashaka Cement plc and previously served on the Boards of Jaiz Bank Plc, Central Securities Clearing System Plc, Lafarge Africa Plc and First Bank Mortgages Limited to mention a few.

Professionally, Alhaji Kwairanga is a Fellow of the Chartered Institute of Stockbrokers, Chartered Institute of Directors of Nigeria, the Certified Pension Institute of Nigeria and the Abuja Commodities and Securities Exchange.

He is also a Council Member of the Chartered Institute of Stockbrokers; the Chartered Institute of Directors and he is the current President of the Certified Pensions Institute of Nigeria.

Kwairanga is a holder of the prominent traditional title of Sarkin Fulani Gombe and has led several initiatives for peace and development in Gombe State and the North East region in general.

He has also been involved in policy and strategy formulation in the public sector as a Member of the Vision 2020 Committee, the Presidential Advisory Committee on the Nigerian Industrial Revolution Plan and several committees of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

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