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OPINION: CBN retains 14% interest rates, IMF downgrades growth

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Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst at FXTM, comments on CBN leaves rates unchanged as IMF downgrades growth

In a widely expected move, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has left interest rates unchanged at 14% for January.

Signs of rising inflationary pressures are likely to fuel speculation over the central bank tightening monetary policy, especially as government spending increases ahead of the presidential elections. With rising inflation in Nigeria seen threatening the Naira exchange and economic stability, the CBN may be forced to act quicker than expected. 

However, with the IMF lowering Nigeria’s growth projection for 2019 to 2% due to a change in oil’s outlook and weakening global expansion, the CBN may now be in a tricky position.

While a rate hike will tame inflationary pressures, it may end up impacting growth by discouraging consumer borrowing and businesses to reduce investments.

Will Nigeria’s economy expand by 2.28% in 2019 as the CBN predicts or closer to the IMF’s 2% projection?

While it is widely known that Nigeria remains on a mission to diversify away from oil reliance, the nation’s short-medium term outlook hangs on oil’s performance.

Risk sentiment hit by IMF pessimism

A wave of risk aversion swept across financial markets today with global equities retreating as pessimism over global growth sapped risk sentiment.

The International Monetary Fund’s recent gloomy global growth outlook left a bitter aftertaste while Brexit-related uncertainty and a prolonged US government shutdown drained investor confidence.

With investors clearly keeping a safe distance from riskier assets amid the general gloom, Asian stocks closed in the red territory while European shares traded modestly lower.

The declines witnessed across global stocks continue to highlight how fragile market sentiment remains. With geopolitical risk factors and global growth fears seen stimulating risk aversion, Wall Street is likely to open in a depressed fashion this afternoon.

UK jobs data offers temporary distraction from Brexit

The British Pound edged higher earlier today after encouraging jobs data offered investors a short-term distraction away from the Brexit chaos and political drama in Westminster.

With wage growth in the UK hitting a new 10-year high at 3.4% and employment growing more than expected in the three months to November, this certainly suggests that the labour markets remain resilient despite Brexit.

However, this strong jobs data is destined to be overshadowed by Brexit developments.

In the latest episode to the Brexit saga, Theresa May has unveiled her ‘Plan B’ to Parliament. With MP’s describing ‘Plan A’ as ‘Plan B’ in disguise, nothing new has been brought to the table.

Will the Prime Minister’s Brexit ‘Plan B’ be able to win the Commons over at the Parliamentary debate and vote on January 29th?

This is a question on the mind of many investors. Whatever the outcome of the vote, it will play a role in how or if the UK departs from the European Union.

Commodity spotlight – Gold

Gold bounced back from multi-week lows on Tuesday as concerns over slowing global growth sent investors rushing to safe-haven assets.

Geopolitical risks in the form of Brexit drama, US-China trade developments, and a government shutdown in the United States boosted the metal’s allure with prices trading around $1,283 as of writing. Gold is likely to receive further support from growing speculation over the US Federal Reserve taking a pause on rate hikes this year.

In regards to the technical picture, Gold remains in a bullish channel on the daily charts.

There have been consistently higher highs and higher lows with the MACD pointing to the upside.

An intraday breakout above $1,286 is likely to open a path towards $1,295 and $1,300, respectively.

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Dangote Cement Pays Over N3.3 Trillion in Dividends to Shareholders in 15 Years

…Vows to transform Africa by making it self-sufficient in cement, clinker

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Dangote Cement

Shareholders of Dangote Cement Plc have received over N3.3 trillion in dividends over the last 15 years. Aside from this impressive dividend payout, the shareholders have also significantly benefited from the capital appreciation of the cement stock.

The benefits to the shareholders were disclosed on the floor of the Nigerian Exchange last Wednesday during the “Facts Behind the Figure” presentation, by the Management and Board of Dangote Cement, which was ably led by the new Chairman, Mr. Emmanuel Ikazoboh.

Ikazobor who just assumed the position of the chairman from Aliko Dangote, thanked the shareholders for standing by the company, while also assuring them of consistent good returns on their investments.

He said Dangote Cement remains resolute in transforming Africa by creating sustainable value for all its stakeholders, as it will do all to achieve its vision of making Africa self-sufficient in cement and clinker. 

He stated that: “To our investors, you have my unwavering commitment to safeguarding and growing your investment. To our regulators and market operators, you have my pledge of continued partnership and adherence to governance standards that lead rather than follow. To our employees and partners, you have my gratitude and my assurance that our collective strength will propel us to achievements we haven’t yet imagined.”

Speaking further on the future of the company, the Chief Executive of the company, Arvind Pathak, said: “We aim to expand installed capacity to 66.4Mta by 2030, supporting our long-term vision of making Africa self-sufficient in cement and clinker production. This growth will be driven by a mix of greenfield and brownfield projects.”

He revealed that the company has commissioned the first phase (1.5Mta) of its 3Mta Côte d’Ivoire plant, while construction of the 6Mta integrated Itori Plant continues to advance steadily. In addition, the company, according to him, has announced a $400 million investment to double its production capacity in Ethiopia.

He added that: “Over the past 15 years, DCP has committed more than $8.5 billion in capital investments across Africa, underscoring our long-term confidence in the region’s growth prospects.”

The Group Chairman of the Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX Group), Alhaji (Dr.) Umaru Kwairanga, praised the President/Chief Executive, Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, for his substantial contributions to the Nigerian capital market and private sector development. He said the former Chairman of Dangote Cement, who is also his mentor, has clearly shown that wealth can be created but also transferred to the public through the capital market.

Group Managing Director and Chief Executive of the Nigerian Exchange Group, Temi Popoola, also lauded the new Management and Board of Dangote Cement, noting that with Mr. Ikazoboh as the Chairman, the shareholders will surely be happy.

It would be recalled that the shareholders of the company, in its last Annual General Meeting (AGM) for the year 2024, were full of praise for the Board, Management, and staff of the company after approving a dividend payout of N502.6 billion, which translated to N30 kobo per share. 

The company, in the same vein, also significantly increased its social investments by 469.8 per cent to N3.2 billion. The corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities were in education, healthcare, agriculture, infrastructure, and economic empowerment. 

President of the Association for the Advancement of Rights of Nigerian Shareholders (AARNS), Faruk Umar, said the shareholders were pleased with Aliko Dangote and his team. He said that for the company to still pay a robust dividend despite the obvious economic challenges, which also affected their operations, shows the doggedness and fighting entrepreneurial spirit of the management of the company. 

According to him: “We are happy with this result. The year 2024 was very challenging due to the fluctuations in the foreign exchange market and the company’s expansion programme. But despite all these challenges, the company was still able to pay us a very good dividend and even gave us hope of better returns on our investments in the years to come. This is very commendable, and it is only a company like Dangote Cement that can achieve this laudable feat.”

Chairperson of the Pragmatic Shareholders Association of Nigeria, Bisi Bakare, also commended the company’s consistent dividend payment, noting that the company is moving in the best way of corporate governance. He stated that: “As a shareholder and an active investor of this company, I am very happy and pleased with the performance of our company so far. The earnings are not even up to N30 per share, and for the company to still declare N30 per share dividend speaks volumes of the quality of leadership that we are lucky to have in Dangote Cement. It should also be noted that Dangote Cement is the only manufacturing company that paid the highest dividend in the year under review. So, we are happy and very proud to be part of this company.”

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Expert: Fintech, Financial Inclusion Critical for Sustainable Growth of Nigerian Economy

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Dr. Biodun Adedipe, CEO, B. Adedipe & Associates Limited
Dr. Biodun Adedipe, CEO, B. Adedipe & Associates Limited

A renowned economist, Dr. Biodun Adedipe, the Chief Consultant/CEO, B. Adedipe & Associates Limited, says fintech and financial inclusion are not only contemporary in the Nigerian financial ecosystem, they also hold exciting promises in the transition of the Nigerian economy from jobless growth of over two decades now, to inclusive and sustainable growth that assures shared prosperity for all stakeholders.

Adedipe added that over $2 billion were invested in fintech and startups by over 50 angel investors and venture capitalists in 2024.

Delivering the keynote paper at the 2nd Business Journal Fintech & Financial Inclusion Roundtable 2025 in Lagos, Adedipe described financial inclusion as a critical driver of economic growth and poverty alleviation.

“This makes financial inclusion critical to developing economies, especially those like Nigeria that have been experiencing jobless growth in the last 20 years thereabout and also deep in multi-dimensional poverty. The real challenge resides at the bottom of the pyramid where there is not only poor access to finance but also lack of the basic elements that define good quality of life.”

In its 2023 survey, EFInA reported 64% financial inclusion in Nigeria, driven by marginal growth in the banked population and major gains in non-bank formal adoption.

He listed the opportunities of both fintech and financial inclusion in Nigeria to include youthful and tech savvy population, increasing demand for financial services, unbanked and under-served population, significant informal economy estimated at 54% to 58% of Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and necessity-based entrepreneurship, which is a rampant phenomenon in fragile economies where informal economic activities and low income are pervasive.

Adedipe said the challenges facing the Nigerian economy in terms of fintech and financial inclusion include the ability and capacity of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in promoting and regulating the two concepts effectively.

He listed past and current CBN interventions as the National Financial Inclusion Strategy, National FinTech Strategy, Strategy for Leveraging Agent Networks to Drive Women’s Financial Inclusion and Payment System Vision 2025.

Other key pitfalls to avoid are measuring, identifying and filling gaps, consumer protection and awareness, cost and affordability, technology and infrastructure.

The economist added that both regulators and operators also face significant risks – market, structural, strategic, cybersecurity and operational, as well cultural barriers and gender bias, and credit assessment and KYC.

“If Nigeria (or any developing country for that matter) will maximally benefit from financial inclusion and the deep role that fintech plays in that process, there must be a balance of interests. That balance will be effective only if all stakeholders collaborate (no one seeking to take advantage of the other) and maintain tight focus on the over-arching purpose of inclusive growth and shared prosperity.”

He said for Nigeria to have an inclusive financial system, policies, regulations, products, services, technology and infrastructure must be inclusive by design.

Other factors include integrated system, safe and efficient digital payment/finance ecosystem, economically sustainable and commercially viable market infrastructure, robust data information system and effective regulation.

According to Remita “as Nigeria continues to embrace digital transformation and foster innovation in the financial sector, the role of fintech in empowering SMEs will only grow in significance. With a young and dynamic entrepreneurial ecosystem, the demand for fintech solutions tailored for SMEs is expected to soar, driving further innovation and competition in the market.”

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Tinubu Launches Personal Income Tax Calculator to Improve Compliance, Fairness

By ORJI ISRAEL

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Bola Ahmed Tinubu
President Bola Tinubu

President Bola Tinubu has launched a Personal Income Tax Calculator to help Nigerians work out their tax obligations under the new tax law.

The tool is expected to make compliance easier and improve transparency in the system.

In a post on his X page, the president said the calculator shows how the recent reforms protect low-income earners while ensuring fairness.

“A fair tax system must never punish poverty or weigh down the most vulnerable. With the new tax laws I recently signed, taking effect from January 2026, we have lifted this burden and created a path of equity, fairness, and true redistribution in our economy,” Tinubu said.

Some months ago, he signed four major tax bills into law to bring Nigeria’s scattered tax system under one framework. These include the Nigeria Tax Administration Law, which sets out a uniform process for tax administration across federal, state, and local governments; the Nigeria Revenue Service (Establishment) Bill, which replaces the current Federal Inland Revenue Service Act with a stronger, more independent revenue agency; and the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) and Joint Revenue Board (Establishment) Bill, which creates a formal structure for cooperation between revenue bodies at all levels.

The introduction of the tax calculator, together with these reforms, is expected to reduce confusion for both individuals and businesses, while also making it easier for them to meet their obligations and contribute to national growth.

Tinubu added that the reforms are part of building renewed hope for the economy and urged Nigerians to trust in the country’s future for themselves and their families.

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