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OPINION: CBN retains 14% interest rates, IMF downgrades growth

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Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst at FXTM, comments on CBN leaves rates unchanged as IMF downgrades growth

In a widely expected move, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has left interest rates unchanged at 14% for January.

Signs of rising inflationary pressures are likely to fuel speculation over the central bank tightening monetary policy, especially as government spending increases ahead of the presidential elections. With rising inflation in Nigeria seen threatening the Naira exchange and economic stability, the CBN may be forced to act quicker than expected. 

However, with the IMF lowering Nigeria’s growth projection for 2019 to 2% due to a change in oil’s outlook and weakening global expansion, the CBN may now be in a tricky position.

While a rate hike will tame inflationary pressures, it may end up impacting growth by discouraging consumer borrowing and businesses to reduce investments.

Will Nigeria’s economy expand by 2.28% in 2019 as the CBN predicts or closer to the IMF’s 2% projection?

While it is widely known that Nigeria remains on a mission to diversify away from oil reliance, the nation’s short-medium term outlook hangs on oil’s performance.

Risk sentiment hit by IMF pessimism

A wave of risk aversion swept across financial markets today with global equities retreating as pessimism over global growth sapped risk sentiment.

The International Monetary Fund’s recent gloomy global growth outlook left a bitter aftertaste while Brexit-related uncertainty and a prolonged US government shutdown drained investor confidence.

With investors clearly keeping a safe distance from riskier assets amid the general gloom, Asian stocks closed in the red territory while European shares traded modestly lower.

The declines witnessed across global stocks continue to highlight how fragile market sentiment remains. With geopolitical risk factors and global growth fears seen stimulating risk aversion, Wall Street is likely to open in a depressed fashion this afternoon.

UK jobs data offers temporary distraction from Brexit

The British Pound edged higher earlier today after encouraging jobs data offered investors a short-term distraction away from the Brexit chaos and political drama in Westminster.

With wage growth in the UK hitting a new 10-year high at 3.4% and employment growing more than expected in the three months to November, this certainly suggests that the labour markets remain resilient despite Brexit.

However, this strong jobs data is destined to be overshadowed by Brexit developments.

In the latest episode to the Brexit saga, Theresa May has unveiled her ‘Plan B’ to Parliament. With MP’s describing ‘Plan A’ as ‘Plan B’ in disguise, nothing new has been brought to the table.

Will the Prime Minister’s Brexit ‘Plan B’ be able to win the Commons over at the Parliamentary debate and vote on January 29th?

This is a question on the mind of many investors. Whatever the outcome of the vote, it will play a role in how or if the UK departs from the European Union.

Commodity spotlight – Gold

Gold bounced back from multi-week lows on Tuesday as concerns over slowing global growth sent investors rushing to safe-haven assets.

Geopolitical risks in the form of Brexit drama, US-China trade developments, and a government shutdown in the United States boosted the metal’s allure with prices trading around $1,283 as of writing. Gold is likely to receive further support from growing speculation over the US Federal Reserve taking a pause on rate hikes this year.

In regards to the technical picture, Gold remains in a bullish channel on the daily charts.

There have been consistently higher highs and higher lows with the MACD pointing to the upside.

An intraday breakout above $1,286 is likely to open a path towards $1,295 and $1,300, respectively.

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Godwin Emefiele Disobeyed Direction Of Law With Intent To Harm The Public, He Printed ₦684.5M Using ₦18.9B Says EFCC in fresh charge

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April 23, 2024

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The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission has filed a fresh charge at the High Court of the Federal Capital Territory against the embattled former governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Godwin Emefiele.

EFCC in the charge accused Emefiele of approving the printing of N684,590,000 at the rate of N18.96 billion.

EFCC also alleged that Emefiele broke the law with intent to harm the public during his implementation of the naira swap policy of the administration of former President Muhammadu Buhari.

The anti-graft agency also accused Emefiele of unlawfully approving the withdrawal of N124.8 billion from the Consolidated Revenue Fund of the Federation.

EFCC’s top prosecutor, Rotimi Oyedepo, SAN revealed that Emefiele will be arraigned on a new four-count charge before Justice Hamza Muazu

Counts one to four of the charge, read,

“STATEMENT OF OFFENCE: Public Servant disobeying direction of law with intent to cause injury to the public contrary to and punishable under Section 123 of the Penal Code Law, Cap. 89 Laws of the Federation, 1990.

“PARTICULARS OF THE OFFENCE: That you GODWIN IFEANYI EMEFIELE between the 19th day of October 2022 and 5th March 2023 in Abuja, knowingly disobeyed the direction of Section 19 of the CBN Act, 2007, by approving the printing of N375,520,000.00 pieces of colour swapped N1, 000, at the total cost of N11,052, 068,062 without the recommendation of the Board of Central Bank and the strict approval of the President, Federal Republic of Nigeria which conduct of yours caused injury to the public and you thereby committed an offence.”

This and three other charges were stated against him. They read;

“COUNT 2: “That you, GODWIN IFEANYI EMEFIELE, between the 19th of October 2022 and 5th March 2023 in Abuja, knowingly disobeyed the direction of Section 19 of the Central Bank of Nigeria Act, 2007, by approving the printing of 172,000,000 pieces of colour swapped N500 (Five Hundred Naira) Notes, at the total cost of N4, 471,066,040 without the recommendation of the Board of Central Bank and the strict approval of the President, Federal Republic of Nigeria which conduct of yours caused injury to the public and you thereby committed an offence.

“COUNT 3: “That you GODWIN IFEANYI EMEFIELE between the 19th day of October 2022 and 5th March 2023 in Abuja, knowingly disobeyed the direction of Section 19 of the CBN Act, 2007, by approving the printing of 137,070,000 pieces of colour swapped N200 (Two Hundred Naira) Note, at the total cost of N3, 441, 005, 280 without the recommendation of the Board of Central Bank and the strict approval of the President, Federal Republic of Nigeria which conduct of yours caused injury to the public and you thereby committed an offence.”

“COUNT 4: “That you, GODWIN IFEANYI EMEFIELE, on or about the 7th day of October 2020, in Abuja, within the jurisdiction of this Honorable Court, knowingly disobeyed the direction of Section 80 of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, 1999 (As Amended), by approving the withdrawal of the total sum of N124, 860, 227, 865.16 from the Consolidated Revenue Fund of the Federation in a manner not prescribed by the National Assembly, which conduct of yours caused injury to the public and you thereby committed an offence.”

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Immigration Office Place Ex Governor, Yahaya Bello On Watchlist While IG Of Police Withdraws All Police Officers Attached To Him

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April 19, 2024

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The Inspector General of Police, Olukayode Egbetokun, has withdrawn all police officers attached to the embattled former Governor of Kogi State, Yahaya Bello.

The order for the withdrawal was contained in a police wireless message. The document with reference number:

“CB:4001/DOPS/PMF/FHQ/ABJ/VOL.48/ 34 reads in part;“IG has ordered the withdrawal of all policemen attached to His Excellency and former Executive Governor of Kogi State, Alhaji Yahaya Bello. Acknowledge compliance and treat with utmost importance.

Please, above, for your information and strict compliance.”

Meanwhile, the Nigerian Immigration Service has placed the former governor on its watchlist.

This comes after the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission on Thursday, April 18, declared him wanted in connection to an alleged case of money laundering to the tune of N80.2bn.

From EFCC

In a circular signed by an Assistant Comptroller of Immigration, DS Umar, for the Comptroller-General, Kemi Nandap, the NIS detailed the former governor’s name, nationality, and passport number.

From National Immigration Office

And read;

“I am directed to inform you that the above-named person has been placed on the watch list.

Suffice to mention that the subject is being prosecuted before the Federal High Court Abuja for conspiracy, breach of trust, and money laundering vide letter Ref; CR; 3000/EFCC/LS/EGCS.1/ TE/Vide/1/279 dated April 18, 2024.

If seen at any entry or exit point, he should be arrested and referred to the Director of Investigation or contact 08036226329/07039617304 for further action.” the circular reads in part.

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BREAKING: EFCC Declares Former Kogi State’s Governor, Yahaya Bello Wanted

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April 18, 2024

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The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission has declared a former governor of Kogi State, Yahaya Bello, wanted for offences relating to economic and financial crimes.

This was contained in a notice posted on the commission’s official Facebook page on Thursday.

The notice read, “The public is hereby notified that Yahaya Adoza Bello (former Governor of Kogi State), whose photograph appears above is wanted by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission in connection with alleged case of Money Laundering to the tune of N80,246,470,089.88

“Bello, a 48-year-old Ebira man, is a native of Okenne Local Government of Kogi State.

“His last known address is: 9, Benghazi Street, Wuse Zone 4, Abuja.”

The notice asked anybody with useful information about the former governor’s whereabouts to contact any of the commission’s offices across the country.

The anti-graft commission had earlier stated that it would, on Thursday (today), arraign the former governor before a Federal High Court sitting in Abuja.

This was after the EFCC was granted a warrant of arrest by the Federal High Court in Abuja to apprehend the former governor.

Punch reported that The agency’s team of lawyers, led by Kemi Pinheiro, SAN, during the proceedings on Thursday, said that EFCC operatives were prepared to carry out the arrest warrant for the former governor, even if it requires the use of force.

Bello and three other suspects, Ali Bello, Dauda Suliman, and Abdulsalam Hudu, will be arraigned before Justice Emeka Nwite.

They face 19 counts related to money laundering to the tune of N80,246,470,088.88.

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