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Q2 Outlook for Oil and what this means for the Nigerian economy

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BY: Lukman Otunuga, FXTM Research Analyst

Q2 Outlook – WTI Oil: Near 30% rally in Oil so far this year unjustifiable

The near 30% rally in WTI Oil during the first quarter of 2019 is difficult to justify when taking into account the progressive concerns that are mounting regarding a global economic downturn.

The rally has been supported by improved market confidence that efforts from OPEC+ have tightened the supply in the market, but whether this encouraging sentiment can continue would likely depend on whether Russia continues to support production cuts.

As such, a result to an unprecedented 30% rally over the last quarter, the commodity is going to enter the new quarter as a prime contender to suffer from a market correction. The probability is high that fears over a deceleration in world economic momentum will only get louder as the year progresses, meaning Oil investors will need to re-assess into expectations what impact a global slowdown will have on future demand.

A plethora of evidence through data releases from different economies across the globe has already pointed out that a downturn in growth is impending – if the slowdown hasn’t already arrived.

Market perception is that OPEC cuts are working but demand outlook at risk

One of the major risks for the price of Oil in the second quarter is the increased probability that world economic forecasts for 2019 will be revised lower. While a great volume of noise in the Oil atmosphere is created around headlines involving production, OPEC or even more recently OPEC+, it often gets underlooked just how important Oil demand is for its valuation.

Reduced demand is a negative for Oil price and the prospect of further lower demand on global economic health fears will risk re-igniting oversupply concerns that have dominated headlines since the spectacular price crash first occurred in 2014, despite repeated measures and attempts by OPEC and co to rebalance the market.

Iran waivers a wildcard, Saudi Arabia to remain committed to output cuts

If you were to take the contrarian view, there are a few reasons to remain optimistic that Oil can resume its price rebound in Q2.

This would however, include some unpredictable risk elements around politics for a commodity that has historically behaved with an extreme level of sensitivity to politics.

Waivers on Iranian sanctions are set to expire over the coming months and if President Trump adopts a hardline approach that results in the taps for Iranian Oil supply being turned off, the subsequent change in the production outlook would prove tempting for potential buyers.

Venezuela is another market that has come under the threat of sanctions following recent domestic unrest, while suspicions remain that Saudi Arabia will maintain its underlying commitment towards tightening the available supply of Oil to achieve stronger valuations to help the Kingdom achieve its fiscal targets.

Do not underestimate risk Trump speaking against Oil rally will have on future outlook

Another factor that needs to be taken into account when factoring in potential risks that can swing the hammer of the Oil price in either direction is President Trump.

The President of the United States has made it perfectly clear on numerous occasions that his desire is for Oil prices to return to lower levels for a prolonged period. He has already commented via social media feeds that the Oil price is too high and while he might not be President of a nation that is either a traditional member of OPEC nor OPEC+, he carries the ability to influence world financial markets. 

When it comes to President Trump’s influence on financial markets it is never an occasion that investors can prepare for when it will happen, but Trump has proven in office that he has a tendency of getting his way in the end, and I would personally not want to be on the wrong side of the trade when the President of the United States is demanding for lower Oil valuations.

What does this all mean for the Nigerian economy?

Although Nigeria remains on a quest to diversify away from Oil reliance, a handsome chunk of the nation’s export earnings is from Oil sales. While rising Oil prices will boost government revenues, provide foreign exchange stability and support economic growth, it leaves the country vulnerable to external shocks.

With robust production from US Shale stimulating oversupply concerns and fears around slowing global growth potentially impacting demand, Oil’s upside seems limited. If Oil prices end up depreciating back below $60 in Q2, this will not only impact growth prospects but also Nigeria’s efforts to support its 2019 budget.

The ramifications of such a development will most likely complicate the Central Bank of Nigeria’s efforts to cut rates further in an effort to boost economic growth. However, further signs of Nigeria breaking away from Oil reliance to other sustainable sources of growth such as agriculture have the potential to limit shocks created from Oil volatility.

WTI knocking on the door at $60, but is anyone home?

Focusing on the technical picture, WTI Crude has reached tough resistance on the monthly charts with $60 acting as a barrier for bulls preventing prices by being pushed higher.

The $60 level ironically also reflects the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the October – December 2018 downtrend, which helps explain why we are noticing a trend of selling pressure jumping back in the market close to $60.

Until Oil is able to secure a decisive monthly close above $60, it looks like a ceiling is in place for Oil bulls and selling rallies below this level is going to remain as a tempting strategy for bearish investors.

A weekly close below $56 will act as a signal for further downside with $52, $50 and $47.80 acting as key points of interest.

If prices are able to conquer $60, Oil has scope to challenge $65.

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Tinubu Launches Personal Income Tax Calculator to Improve Compliance, Fairness

By ORJI ISRAEL

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Bola Ahmed Tinubu
President Bola Tinubu

President Bola Tinubu has launched a Personal Income Tax Calculator to help Nigerians work out their tax obligations under the new tax law.

The tool is expected to make compliance easier and improve transparency in the system.

In a post on his X page, the president said the calculator shows how the recent reforms protect low-income earners while ensuring fairness.

“A fair tax system must never punish poverty or weigh down the most vulnerable. With the new tax laws I recently signed, taking effect from January 2026, we have lifted this burden and created a path of equity, fairness, and true redistribution in our economy,” Tinubu said.

Some months ago, he signed four major tax bills into law to bring Nigeria’s scattered tax system under one framework. These include the Nigeria Tax Administration Law, which sets out a uniform process for tax administration across federal, state, and local governments; the Nigeria Revenue Service (Establishment) Bill, which replaces the current Federal Inland Revenue Service Act with a stronger, more independent revenue agency; and the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) and Joint Revenue Board (Establishment) Bill, which creates a formal structure for cooperation between revenue bodies at all levels.

The introduction of the tax calculator, together with these reforms, is expected to reduce confusion for both individuals and businesses, while also making it easier for them to meet their obligations and contribute to national growth.

Tinubu added that the reforms are part of building renewed hope for the economy and urged Nigerians to trust in the country’s future for themselves and their families.

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FIRS e-Invoicing Hits 20% Adoption in Two Weeks

Reporter: SANDRA ANI

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VAT controversy | FIRS e-Invoicing

The Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) says that no fewer than 1,000 companies, representing 20% of total eligible firms, have begun integrating its newly launched electronic invoicing  (e-invoicing) system less than two weeks after it went live.

The FIRS e-invoicing platform, which went live on August 1, 2025, after a successful pilot phase that began in November 2024, was designed to modernise Nigeria’s tax administration, curb evasion, and enhance transparency in revenue generation. It also provides the FIRS with real-time visibility into commercial transactions, ensuring authenticity and completeness of invoices.

According to a statement by Dare Adekanmbi, special adviser on Media to FIRS Chairman Zacch Adedeji, at least 1,000 companies, representing 20% of more than 5,000 eligible firms, have already adopted the system and begun integrating with the FIRS platform.

Adekanmbi noted that the initiative, also known as the Merchant-Buyer Model, will be rolled out in phases. “Large taxpayers, which are companies with annual turnover of N5 billion and more, are expected to be the first to be onboarded on the platform,” he said.

FIRS revealed that MTN Nigeria was the first taxpayer to transmit live electronic invoices to the platform, while Huawei Nigeria and IHS Nigeria have concluded test transmissions and are expected to go live soon.

The agency added that the initial compliance deadline of August 1, 2025, has been extended by three months to accommodate companies currently facing onboarding challenges. The new deadline is now November 1, 2025.

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NGX Boss, Umaru Kwairanga, to Chair Business Journal Fintech Roundtable 2025

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NGX Boss, Umaru Kwairanga
NGX Boss, Umaru Kwairanga

Dr. Umaru Kwairanga, Group Chairman, Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX) will Chair the 2nd Business Journal Fintech & Financial Inclusion Roundtable 2025 scheduled for Friday, August 29, 2025 at Oriental Hotel, Lekki, Lagos. Time is 10-am prompt.

The theme of the Roundtable is: Fintech & Financial Inclusion: The Opportunities & Challenges for Nigeria.

In a statement, Prince Cookey, Publisher/Editor-in-Chief of Business Journal Media Group said the choice of Umaru Kwairanga to chair the event is a reflection of his immense and chequered journey in the Nigerian economic system over the years.

“Dr. Umaru Kwairanga is a noted player in the Nigerian economy and financial services sector. Over the years, he has carved a positive niche in driving the narrative in national policy formulation, implementation and review. He remains a worthy point of reference and role model to current and future players in the Nigerian economy.”

Alhaji (Dr.) Umaru Kwairanga, Sarkin Fulani Gombe and Group Chairman, Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX), is a notable player in the Nigerian corporate world, a thorough-bred professional and a prominent community leader in Gombe State and the North East region.

He has served at the highest levels of the banking, pension, investment, manufacturing and commercial sectors of Nigeria’s economy. He is the current Chairman of the Nigerian Exchange Group Plc, Nigeria’ oldest stock exchange and also Chairman of Tangerine General Insurance Limited.

The NGX Chairman is also a Director on the Boards of First Bank Senegal Limited, Tangerine Apt Pensions Limited and the Group Managing Director of Finmal Finance Services Limited.  

He is a past Chairman of Ashaka Cement plc and previously served on the Boards of Jaiz Bank Plc, Central Securities Clearing System Plc, Lafarge Africa Plc and First Bank Mortgages Limited to mention a few.

Professionally, Alhaji Kwairanga is a Fellow of the Chartered Institute of Stockbrokers, Chartered Institute of Directors of Nigeria, the Certified Pension Institute of Nigeria and the Abuja Commodities and Securities Exchange.

He is also a Council Member of the Chartered Institute of Stockbrokers; the Chartered Institute of Directors and he is the current President of the Certified Pensions Institute of Nigeria.

Kwairanga is a holder of the prominent traditional title of Sarkin Fulani Gombe and has led several initiatives for peace and development in Gombe State and the North East region in general.

He has also been involved in policy and strategy formulation in the public sector as a Member of the Vision 2020 Committee, the Presidential Advisory Committee on the Nigerian Industrial Revolution Plan and several committees of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

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