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Q2 Outlook for Oil and what this means for the Nigerian economy

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BY: Lukman Otunuga, FXTM Research Analyst

Q2 Outlook – WTI Oil: Near 30% rally in Oil so far this year unjustifiable

The near 30% rally in WTI Oil during the first quarter of 2019 is difficult to justify when taking into account the progressive concerns that are mounting regarding a global economic downturn.

The rally has been supported by improved market confidence that efforts from OPEC+ have tightened the supply in the market, but whether this encouraging sentiment can continue would likely depend on whether Russia continues to support production cuts.

As such, a result to an unprecedented 30% rally over the last quarter, the commodity is going to enter the new quarter as a prime contender to suffer from a market correction. The probability is high that fears over a deceleration in world economic momentum will only get louder as the year progresses, meaning Oil investors will need to re-assess into expectations what impact a global slowdown will have on future demand.

A plethora of evidence through data releases from different economies across the globe has already pointed out that a downturn in growth is impending – if the slowdown hasn’t already arrived.

Market perception is that OPEC cuts are working but demand outlook at risk

One of the major risks for the price of Oil in the second quarter is the increased probability that world economic forecasts for 2019 will be revised lower. While a great volume of noise in the Oil atmosphere is created around headlines involving production, OPEC or even more recently OPEC+, it often gets underlooked just how important Oil demand is for its valuation.

Reduced demand is a negative for Oil price and the prospect of further lower demand on global economic health fears will risk re-igniting oversupply concerns that have dominated headlines since the spectacular price crash first occurred in 2014, despite repeated measures and attempts by OPEC and co to rebalance the market.

Iran waivers a wildcard, Saudi Arabia to remain committed to output cuts

If you were to take the contrarian view, there are a few reasons to remain optimistic that Oil can resume its price rebound in Q2.

This would however, include some unpredictable risk elements around politics for a commodity that has historically behaved with an extreme level of sensitivity to politics.

Waivers on Iranian sanctions are set to expire over the coming months and if President Trump adopts a hardline approach that results in the taps for Iranian Oil supply being turned off, the subsequent change in the production outlook would prove tempting for potential buyers.

Venezuela is another market that has come under the threat of sanctions following recent domestic unrest, while suspicions remain that Saudi Arabia will maintain its underlying commitment towards tightening the available supply of Oil to achieve stronger valuations to help the Kingdom achieve its fiscal targets.

Do not underestimate risk Trump speaking against Oil rally will have on future outlook

Another factor that needs to be taken into account when factoring in potential risks that can swing the hammer of the Oil price in either direction is President Trump.

The President of the United States has made it perfectly clear on numerous occasions that his desire is for Oil prices to return to lower levels for a prolonged period. He has already commented via social media feeds that the Oil price is too high and while he might not be President of a nation that is either a traditional member of OPEC nor OPEC+, he carries the ability to influence world financial markets. 

When it comes to President Trump’s influence on financial markets it is never an occasion that investors can prepare for when it will happen, but Trump has proven in office that he has a tendency of getting his way in the end, and I would personally not want to be on the wrong side of the trade when the President of the United States is demanding for lower Oil valuations.

What does this all mean for the Nigerian economy?

Although Nigeria remains on a quest to diversify away from Oil reliance, a handsome chunk of the nation’s export earnings is from Oil sales. While rising Oil prices will boost government revenues, provide foreign exchange stability and support economic growth, it leaves the country vulnerable to external shocks.

With robust production from US Shale stimulating oversupply concerns and fears around slowing global growth potentially impacting demand, Oil’s upside seems limited. If Oil prices end up depreciating back below $60 in Q2, this will not only impact growth prospects but also Nigeria’s efforts to support its 2019 budget.

The ramifications of such a development will most likely complicate the Central Bank of Nigeria’s efforts to cut rates further in an effort to boost economic growth. However, further signs of Nigeria breaking away from Oil reliance to other sustainable sources of growth such as agriculture have the potential to limit shocks created from Oil volatility.

WTI knocking on the door at $60, but is anyone home?

Focusing on the technical picture, WTI Crude has reached tough resistance on the monthly charts with $60 acting as a barrier for bulls preventing prices by being pushed higher.

The $60 level ironically also reflects the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the October – December 2018 downtrend, which helps explain why we are noticing a trend of selling pressure jumping back in the market close to $60.

Until Oil is able to secure a decisive monthly close above $60, it looks like a ceiling is in place for Oil bulls and selling rallies below this level is going to remain as a tempting strategy for bearish investors.

A weekly close below $56 will act as a signal for further downside with $52, $50 and $47.80 acting as key points of interest.

If prices are able to conquer $60, Oil has scope to challenge $65.

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PAFON 2.0: Experts Highlight Ingredients for Accelerated Financial Inclusion in Nigeria

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PAFON 2.0
L-r: Peter Oluka, co-convener, Payments Forum Nigeria (PAFON); Ibirogba Oluwagunwa, chairman, Lagos State Chapter of the Association of Mobile Money & Bank Agents in Nigeria (AMMBAN); Mrs. Uche Uzoebo, MD/CEO, Shared Agent Network Expansion Facilities Limited (SANEF) Limited; Chika Nwosu, managing director of PalmPay; Happiness Ohioha, CEO, Tizel Cybersecurity, and Chike Onwuegbuchi, co-convener, Payments Forum Nigeria (PAFON), at PAFON 2.0 held in Lagos, recently.

Improved efforts at collaboration among financial service providers, telecommunication operators, and tech Startups, with conscious effort geared at consumer awareness, have been proffered as key remedies to the challenge of financial inclusion in the country.

This is the viewpoint of stakeholders that gathered for the second edition of Payment Forum Nigeria (PAFON 2.0) held recently in Lagos.

PAFON 2.0
L-r: Munachi Duru, Head of Innovation and partnership at AfriGoPay Financial Services Limited; Oluwabunmi Ogunyemi, customer support lead at Moniepoint MFB; Chika Nwosu, managing director of PalmPay, and Mrs. Uche Uzoebo, MD/CEO, Shared Agent Network Expansion Facilities Limited (SANEF) Limited, at PAFON 2.0 held in Lagos, recently.

Delivering a keynote address on the theme, “Bridging the Customer Experience Gap for Financial Inclusion Using AI”, Ebehijie Momoh (Mrs.), the managing director and chief executive officer of AfriGoPay Financial Services Limited, said that with 64% of Nigerian adults being financial included the country has made immense progress in that regards.

She said that between 2012 till date, the country has recorded robust regulatory reforms, especially the launch of the Bank Verification Number (BVN) in 2014 making it easier to identify and track customers across different banks.

“This initiative enhanced the credibility of the financial sector and increased confidence in formal banking systems.

The growth in adoption of smartphones has also helped the financial sector to leapfrog financial inclusion. Nigeria has 142.16 mobile internet subscriptions with an average consumption of ~7.04GB / month as of January 2025. If you juxtapose it to the 15.9% decline in shipments of feature phones to 18.8 million units in Africa as at Q1 2024, you will understand that the uptake in smartphones has helped us a great deal.

Mrs. Momoh who spoke through Mr. Munachi Duru, the head of Innovation and Strategic Partnership at AfriGoPay, said the adoption of artificial intelligence banking gave birth to solutions like smile identity, a leading KYC verification provider launches facial recognition capabilities in Nigeria as neobanks and commercial banks are deploying AI-based KYC verification tools, enabling cheaper and efficient customer acquisition and servicing.

In her goodwill message, Mrs. Uche Uzoebo, MD/CEO, Shared Agent Network Expansion Facilities Limited (SANEF) Limited said that with progress made in accelerating financial inclusion to unbanked and underbanked communities in Nigeria, SANEF has leveraged Artificial Intelligence (AI) as the next step to advancement in financial services in the country.

She noted that as technology evolves rapidly within the financial ecosystem, Financial Inclusion must continue to be at the center of the nation’s progress.

PAFON 2.0
L-r: Peter Oluka, co-convener, Payments Forum Nigeria (PAFON); Ibirogba Oluwagunwa, chairman, Lagos State Chapter of the Association of Mobile Money & Bank Agents in Nigeria (AMMBAN); Mrs. Uche Uzoebo, MD/CEO, Shared Agent Network Expansion Facilities Limited (SANEF) Limited; Chika Nwosu, managing director of PalmPay; Happiness Ohioha, CEO, Tizel Cybersecurity, and Chike Onwuegbuchi, co-convener, Payments Forum Nigeria (PAFON), at PAFON 2.0 held in Lagos, recently.

According to her, agent banking has been a game-changer in expanding financial inclusion across Nigeria. “By deploying agents in underserved areas, we have brought financial services and banking products such as account opening, cash in, cash out, bill payment, transfers and other services closer to the unbanked and underserved.”

Speaking during a panel session, Mr. Ibirogba Oluwagunwa, chairman, Lagos State Chapter of the Association of Mobile Money & Bank Agents in Nigeria (AMMBAN), spoke of lack of collaboration and slow institutional drive towards AI as key barriers hindering digital inclusion.

He harped on the need for information sharing among fintech operators, and improved free flow of information to consumers. “The human barrier angle needs to be addressed. Fintechs need to be pushed to move forward, AI cannot operate itself.”

In his contribution, Mr. Chika Nwosu, managing director of PalmPay, reiterated the need to reach the consumers with simple format communication and education style.

He said operators should create awareness and design consumer​-centric approach in developing any products. This will not only draw the consumers towards the product, but also generate trust and ease the use of such products.

Focusing on the use of AI to ensure reach, inclusion and security, Azure Application and AI Specialist at Microsoft UK, Olusoji Solomon Adeyemo, spoke on the need for AI and Blockchain in the bid to extend services to rural communities and the unbanked.

PAFON 2.0
PANELISTS: L-r: Chike Onwuegbuchi, co-convener, Payments Forum Nigeria (PAFON); Chika Nwosu, managing director of PalmPay; Oluwabunmi Ogunyemi, customer support lead at Moniepoint MFB; Mrs. Uche Uzoebo, MD/CEO, Shared Agent Network Expansion Facilities Limited (SANEF) Limited; Ibirogba Oluwagunwa, chairman, Lagos State Chapter of the Association of Mobile Money & Bank Agents in Nigeria (AMMBAN),and Joan Aimuengheuwa, assistant editor, Techeconomy; Virtual panelsts: Olusoji Solomon Adeyemo, Azure Application and AI Specialist, Microsoft UK, and Olusegun Gabriel Afolabi, co-founder and chief innovation architect, Face Technologies UK Ltd., at PAFON 2.0 held in Lagos, recently.

According to him, “AI, Blockchain and CBDs are shaping the future of payment, and there is a serious need for education. We need to align with global trends in new tech adoption.”

While noting that AI can ensure reach, Adeyomo said blockchain will also create digital identity that is exclusive and will promote digital financial inclusion.

In her position, Oluwabunmi Ogunyemi, the customer support lead at Moniepoint MFB, proffered physical and digital meet with customers, even in rural areas, as a viable means of inclusivity.

Also speaking, Olusegun Afolabi, the co-founder of Face Technologies UK Ltd., called for improved collaborations among stakeholders in the financial sector.

According to him, the fintech companies must also embrace effective identification solutions, focusing on biometrics and card technologies to ensure topnotch security for users.

Earlier in his opening remarks, Mr. Peter Oluka, co-Convener of the Forum, noted that the financial inclusion journey in the country has come to a crucial juncture where over 30 million adults are still financially excluded, many of whom reside in rural areas or belong to vulnerable demographics.

He noted that despite 12% growth in access to formal financial services between 2020 and 2023, as recorded by the EFInA Access to Financial Services Survey 2023, challenges still exist that hinders the unlocking of the potentials of digital payments to drive inclusive growth in Nigeria.

He further posited: “As digital infrastructure grows and fintech innovation accelerates, we must channel these advancements toward building a more inclusive, secure, and trusted financial ecosystem. This is not just about transactions — it’s about empowerment, opportunity, and economic participation for all.

Payments Forum Nigeria
Panel session led by Chukwuemeka Mbaebie, convener of Lagos Blockchain Week.

Nodding in agreement, Mr. Chike Onwuegbuchi, co-Convener, PAFON, reiterated the need for all stakeholders in the financial payment industry, including regulators, to participate in forums as PAFON, to map out, growth strategies with consumers and other strata of the ecosystem.

PAFON 2.0
A cross section of participants at Payments Forum Nigeria – PAFON 2.0 held in Lagos, recently.

He promised to invite security stakeholders, such as the EFCC and others in subsequent editions of the event. This will help give insight into security concerns in deployment of products and services in rural and unbanked communities.

Payments Forum Nigeria (PAFON) is a platform dedicated to shaping the future of digital payments and financial services in our country.

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Flutterwave Powers Local Businesses in Ghana Through Pay With Bank Transfer

Reporter: Ikenna Ugwu

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Flutterwave Ghana
Flutterwave Ghana

Flutterwave, a leading payments technology company in Africa, has broadened its reach in Ghana through the integration of Pay With Bank Transfer, done in partnership with Affinity Bank.

With over 115 million bank transfer payments recorded in Ghana in 2023, this move will ensure that Flutterwave businesses in Ghana can now receive payments seamlessly and securely through a rapidly growing payment method. While Mobile Money leads as the preferred payment type for everyday transactions in Ghana, the recent growth in transactions for Pay With Bank Transfer symbolizes the expanding payment options available for Ghanaian businesses.  

Flutterwave has a track record of driving innovation in the African finance ecosystem, and this new development promises versatility, thereby expanding the pool of customers available to businesses. As a preferred payment method, it also promises faster payments while providing access to a more secure process of transacting which benefits both the sender and the receiver (business).

We are excited to extend our services to the Ghanaian market” says Olugbenga Agboola, Flutterwave Founder & CEOAt Flutterwave, we are driven by the vision of building Africa’s economy. By making payment options like Pay With Bank Transfer available for everyday use, we are expanding access to payments and enabling local businesses to thrive in the economy”

By establishing this strategic partnership,  Flutterwave aims to drive the adoption of the Pay With Bank Transfer option in Ghana, using virtual accounts to allow for secure and transparent payments. This will provide enterprises and small businesses with a simpler way to receive payments and give their customers a seamless process of making payments.

Geoffrey Fiador, Manager, Country Operations and Partnerships, at Flutterwave stated: “By delivering essential payment options like Pay With Bank Transfer for businesses in Ghana, we’re providing an easy way for them to increase their revenue opportunities to grow their businesses. ”

This announcement comes at the heels of Flutterwave’s recent approval by the Bank of Ghana to provide inward remittance services. With a track record of success across Africa, Flutterwave continues to be a trusted partner for businesses in over 34 countries, providing the tools and expertise necessary for success in the dynamic African market.

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Stanbic IBTC Capital leads Presco PLC’s ₦82.9 Billion Bond Issuance to drive West African market growth

Reporter: SANDRA ANI

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Presco and Stanbic Capital
L-r: Oladele Sotubo, Chief Executive, Stanbic IBTC Capital; Kenneth Ugo, Investor Relations Manager, Presco PLC; Olaronke Arigbede, Group Treasurer, SIAT Group; Reji George, Managing Director/CEO, Presco PLC; Felix Nwabuko, Group CEO, SIAT Group and Bayo Ajayi, Chief Executive Officer, Rand Merchant Bank Nigeria Limited, during the signing ceremony of Presco PLC’s ₦82.9 billion 7-year 23.75% Series I Bond held recently in Lagos.

Presco PLC (Presco or the “Company”), has achieved a significant milestone with the successful issuance of its ₦82,896,000,000 7-year 23.75% senior unsecured fixed rate Series I Bonds under its ₦150 billion bond issuance programme (the “Transaction”) with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). Stanbic IBTC Capital Limited (“Stanbic IBTC Capital”) acted as the Lead Issuing House on the Programme.

The proceeds from the Transaction will enable the Company fund its acquisition of a 100% equity stake in Ghana Oil Palm Development Company (GOPDC), further supporting its strategic expansion objectives.

Speaking on the transaction registration, Mr Reji George, Managing Director / CEO, Presco PLC commented:

“The successful completion of our Series 1 Bond issuance solidifies Presco’s foundation for continued growth and expansion. Aligned with our strategic objectives of increasing our planted area of palm oil and, to lead Africa in the fully integrated edible oil and fats business in the nearest future, the proceeds from this issuance will be primarily directed towards the acquisition of a majority equity stake in the Ghana Oil Palm Development Company (GOPDC).

This not only enhances our operational efficiencies, It also solidifies our market presence and competitive advantage in the palm oil sector beyond Nigeria. Most importantly, this will enable us to better serve our valued customers and deliver sustainable value to our shareholders. We extend our sincere gratitude to Stanbic IBTC Capital and all our advisors for their support throughout this process.”

Also speaking on the transaction registration, Oladele Sotubo, Chief Executive, Stanbic IBTC Capital, said:

“Stanbic IBTC Capital is proud to have advised Presco PLC on the successful issuance of its ₦82.9 billion Series 1 bond. As the largest local currency corporate bond issuance in the Nigerian market in recent years, this milestone underscores our deep expertise in capital markets and our commitment to delivering innovative, high-impact financial solutions.

Beyond reinforcing Presco’s strategic growth, this transaction enhances funding diversification within the agricultural sector, driving sustainable industry expansion. We appreciate Presco PLC’s trust in Stanbic IBTC Capital and the consortium of advisors who contributed to the successful execution of this landmark deal.

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