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Naira steady as IMF upgrades Nigeria’s growth outlook

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Lukman Otunuga, FXTM Research Analyst comment on Naira steady as IMF upgrades Nigeria’s growth outlook

A sense of caution lingered across financial markets after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its global economic growth projection for 2019, to 3.3% from 3.5%.

Risks revolving around US-China trade talks and Brexit have played a leading role in the IMF’s decision to downgrade growth forecasts to their lowest rate since the financial crisis of 2008. Growth forecasts for sub-Saharan Africa this year were also trimmed, to 3.5% from the 3.8% set last October.

Interestingly, the IMF upgraded Nigeria’s growth forecast this year, to 2.1% from the 2.0% forecast made in January. With the nation on a mission to diversify away from Oil reliance and macroeconomic conditions stabilizing, the outlook remains encouraging. With no major economic reports expected from Nigeria this week, the Naira and local stock markets may be influenced by external drivers.

A busy day ahead for the Dollar

The US Dollar may react to some near-term catalysts in the form of the pending March US inflation print, the minutes from last month’s surprisingly dovish Fed meeting that are scheduled for release later today, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speeches over the next three days.

Should any of these events support expectations of a Fed rate cut, with the Fed Funds Futures already expecting a 55 percent chance of a cut by December, that could see the Dollar Index (DXY) sink back towards 96.80. However, any drop would likely be mitigated by the worsening global outlook, which is offering support for the Greenback.

Euro awaits ECB decision…

EURUSD bounced off the 1.12 support level in the lead up to the European Central Bank’s latest monetary policy decision that is due on Wednesday.

Mario Draghi and his fellow policymakers are expected to sit on their hands this month, with little room to maneuver amid significant headwinds. While political tensions in France and Brexit uncertainties are beyond the central bank’s control, these factors have been highlighted by the IMF as putting downward pressure on growth, leaving the ECB to bide for time and watch how these risks manifest themselves in the real economy.

Taking a look at the technical picture, the EURUSD remains in a bearish trend on the weekly charts. There have been consistently lower lows and lower highs while the Moving Average Convergence / Divergence (MACD) trades to the downside. A solid breakdown below 1.120 has the potential to encourage a move lower towards 1.113 and 1.100, respectively. If 1.120 proves to be a reliable support, the technical bounce is seen taking prices back towards 1.135.

Pound complacent even as Brexit summit looms

Pound traders have narrowed the trading range for GBPUSD to between 1.30 and 1.31, even as markets remain on tenterhooks awaiting the next developments surrounding Brexit. The EU is set to hold an emergency Brexit summit on Wednesday, amid expectations that the UK will be told to delay its exit by up to a year.

It remains to be seen whether such a demand is palatable for UK lawmakers and Prime Minister Theresa May, whose request for a short extension to the June 30 was rejected. While a longer extension may avoid stringing markets along with a series of cliff-edge dates, it still doesn’t remove the overall uncertainty as to how and when the UK will exit from the European Union. This implies that the dark clouds of Brexit won’t be clearing up anytime soon, which should continue weighing on the Pound throughout the rest of 2019.

Focusing on the technical picture, the GBPUSD is struggling to keep above 1.3000 on the weekly timeframe. A decisive breakdown and weekly close below this point are likely to open the gates towards 1.2800 in the short to medium term.

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Dangote Cement Pays Over N3.3 Trillion in Dividends to Shareholders in 15 Years

…Vows to transform Africa by making it self-sufficient in cement, clinker

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Dangote Cement

Shareholders of Dangote Cement Plc have received over N3.3 trillion in dividends over the last 15 years. Aside from this impressive dividend payout, the shareholders have also significantly benefited from the capital appreciation of the cement stock.

The benefits to the shareholders were disclosed on the floor of the Nigerian Exchange last Wednesday during the “Facts Behind the Figure” presentation, by the Management and Board of Dangote Cement, which was ably led by the new Chairman, Mr. Emmanuel Ikazoboh.

Ikazobor who just assumed the position of the chairman from Aliko Dangote, thanked the shareholders for standing by the company, while also assuring them of consistent good returns on their investments.

He said Dangote Cement remains resolute in transforming Africa by creating sustainable value for all its stakeholders, as it will do all to achieve its vision of making Africa self-sufficient in cement and clinker. 

He stated that: “To our investors, you have my unwavering commitment to safeguarding and growing your investment. To our regulators and market operators, you have my pledge of continued partnership and adherence to governance standards that lead rather than follow. To our employees and partners, you have my gratitude and my assurance that our collective strength will propel us to achievements we haven’t yet imagined.”

Speaking further on the future of the company, the Chief Executive of the company, Arvind Pathak, said: “We aim to expand installed capacity to 66.4Mta by 2030, supporting our long-term vision of making Africa self-sufficient in cement and clinker production. This growth will be driven by a mix of greenfield and brownfield projects.”

He revealed that the company has commissioned the first phase (1.5Mta) of its 3Mta Côte d’Ivoire plant, while construction of the 6Mta integrated Itori Plant continues to advance steadily. In addition, the company, according to him, has announced a $400 million investment to double its production capacity in Ethiopia.

He added that: “Over the past 15 years, DCP has committed more than $8.5 billion in capital investments across Africa, underscoring our long-term confidence in the region’s growth prospects.”

The Group Chairman of the Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX Group), Alhaji (Dr.) Umaru Kwairanga, praised the President/Chief Executive, Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, for his substantial contributions to the Nigerian capital market and private sector development. He said the former Chairman of Dangote Cement, who is also his mentor, has clearly shown that wealth can be created but also transferred to the public through the capital market.

Group Managing Director and Chief Executive of the Nigerian Exchange Group, Temi Popoola, also lauded the new Management and Board of Dangote Cement, noting that with Mr. Ikazoboh as the Chairman, the shareholders will surely be happy.

It would be recalled that the shareholders of the company, in its last Annual General Meeting (AGM) for the year 2024, were full of praise for the Board, Management, and staff of the company after approving a dividend payout of N502.6 billion, which translated to N30 kobo per share. 

The company, in the same vein, also significantly increased its social investments by 469.8 per cent to N3.2 billion. The corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities were in education, healthcare, agriculture, infrastructure, and economic empowerment. 

President of the Association for the Advancement of Rights of Nigerian Shareholders (AARNS), Faruk Umar, said the shareholders were pleased with Aliko Dangote and his team. He said that for the company to still pay a robust dividend despite the obvious economic challenges, which also affected their operations, shows the doggedness and fighting entrepreneurial spirit of the management of the company. 

According to him: “We are happy with this result. The year 2024 was very challenging due to the fluctuations in the foreign exchange market and the company’s expansion programme. But despite all these challenges, the company was still able to pay us a very good dividend and even gave us hope of better returns on our investments in the years to come. This is very commendable, and it is only a company like Dangote Cement that can achieve this laudable feat.”

Chairperson of the Pragmatic Shareholders Association of Nigeria, Bisi Bakare, also commended the company’s consistent dividend payment, noting that the company is moving in the best way of corporate governance. He stated that: “As a shareholder and an active investor of this company, I am very happy and pleased with the performance of our company so far. The earnings are not even up to N30 per share, and for the company to still declare N30 per share dividend speaks volumes of the quality of leadership that we are lucky to have in Dangote Cement. It should also be noted that Dangote Cement is the only manufacturing company that paid the highest dividend in the year under review. So, we are happy and very proud to be part of this company.”

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Expert: Fintech, Financial Inclusion Critical for Sustainable Growth of Nigerian Economy

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Dr. Biodun Adedipe, CEO, B. Adedipe & Associates Limited
Dr. Biodun Adedipe, CEO, B. Adedipe & Associates Limited

A renowned economist, Dr. Biodun Adedipe, the Chief Consultant/CEO, B. Adedipe & Associates Limited, says fintech and financial inclusion are not only contemporary in the Nigerian financial ecosystem, they also hold exciting promises in the transition of the Nigerian economy from jobless growth of over two decades now, to inclusive and sustainable growth that assures shared prosperity for all stakeholders.

Adedipe added that over $2 billion were invested in fintech and startups by over 50 angel investors and venture capitalists in 2024.

Delivering the keynote paper at the 2nd Business Journal Fintech & Financial Inclusion Roundtable 2025 in Lagos, Adedipe described financial inclusion as a critical driver of economic growth and poverty alleviation.

“This makes financial inclusion critical to developing economies, especially those like Nigeria that have been experiencing jobless growth in the last 20 years thereabout and also deep in multi-dimensional poverty. The real challenge resides at the bottom of the pyramid where there is not only poor access to finance but also lack of the basic elements that define good quality of life.”

In its 2023 survey, EFInA reported 64% financial inclusion in Nigeria, driven by marginal growth in the banked population and major gains in non-bank formal adoption.

He listed the opportunities of both fintech and financial inclusion in Nigeria to include youthful and tech savvy population, increasing demand for financial services, unbanked and under-served population, significant informal economy estimated at 54% to 58% of Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and necessity-based entrepreneurship, which is a rampant phenomenon in fragile economies where informal economic activities and low income are pervasive.

Adedipe said the challenges facing the Nigerian economy in terms of fintech and financial inclusion include the ability and capacity of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in promoting and regulating the two concepts effectively.

He listed past and current CBN interventions as the National Financial Inclusion Strategy, National FinTech Strategy, Strategy for Leveraging Agent Networks to Drive Women’s Financial Inclusion and Payment System Vision 2025.

Other key pitfalls to avoid are measuring, identifying and filling gaps, consumer protection and awareness, cost and affordability, technology and infrastructure.

The economist added that both regulators and operators also face significant risks – market, structural, strategic, cybersecurity and operational, as well cultural barriers and gender bias, and credit assessment and KYC.

“If Nigeria (or any developing country for that matter) will maximally benefit from financial inclusion and the deep role that fintech plays in that process, there must be a balance of interests. That balance will be effective only if all stakeholders collaborate (no one seeking to take advantage of the other) and maintain tight focus on the over-arching purpose of inclusive growth and shared prosperity.”

He said for Nigeria to have an inclusive financial system, policies, regulations, products, services, technology and infrastructure must be inclusive by design.

Other factors include integrated system, safe and efficient digital payment/finance ecosystem, economically sustainable and commercially viable market infrastructure, robust data information system and effective regulation.

According to Remita “as Nigeria continues to embrace digital transformation and foster innovation in the financial sector, the role of fintech in empowering SMEs will only grow in significance. With a young and dynamic entrepreneurial ecosystem, the demand for fintech solutions tailored for SMEs is expected to soar, driving further innovation and competition in the market.”

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Tinubu Launches Personal Income Tax Calculator to Improve Compliance, Fairness

By ORJI ISRAEL

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Bola Ahmed Tinubu
President Bola Tinubu

President Bola Tinubu has launched a Personal Income Tax Calculator to help Nigerians work out their tax obligations under the new tax law.

The tool is expected to make compliance easier and improve transparency in the system.

In a post on his X page, the president said the calculator shows how the recent reforms protect low-income earners while ensuring fairness.

“A fair tax system must never punish poverty or weigh down the most vulnerable. With the new tax laws I recently signed, taking effect from January 2026, we have lifted this burden and created a path of equity, fairness, and true redistribution in our economy,” Tinubu said.

Some months ago, he signed four major tax bills into law to bring Nigeria’s scattered tax system under one framework. These include the Nigeria Tax Administration Law, which sets out a uniform process for tax administration across federal, state, and local governments; the Nigeria Revenue Service (Establishment) Bill, which replaces the current Federal Inland Revenue Service Act with a stronger, more independent revenue agency; and the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) and Joint Revenue Board (Establishment) Bill, which creates a formal structure for cooperation between revenue bodies at all levels.

The introduction of the tax calculator, together with these reforms, is expected to reduce confusion for both individuals and businesses, while also making it easier for them to meet their obligations and contribute to national growth.

Tinubu added that the reforms are part of building renewed hope for the economy and urged Nigerians to trust in the country’s future for themselves and their families.

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