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UK elections, trade talks, and central banks meetings

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Traders and investors are bracing for a volatile week ahead as several events may determine the direction of markets for the foreseeable future.

Will the Conservatives secure a majority in the UK election?

Looking at where Sterling stands now, it seems evident that currency traders have been pricing in a Conservative majority in Parliament. With only a few days remaining until voters head to the ballot box on Thursday, bookies and opinion polls are showing the Tories still on course for a solid victory.

This would mean PM Johnson can get his Brexit deal through Parliament before Christmas, so taking the UK out of the EU by the end of January. Such an outcome will reduce uncertainty, but that wouldn’t be the end of the story as the UK still needs to reach a trade agreement with the EU. Expect the Pound’s upside to be limited in the event that the Conservatives win a majority on Thursday, as much of this outcome has already been priced in.

However, traders should be reminded of the most recent UK election two years ago and also the referendum result in 2016. Financial markets got both those results completely wrong and so there is a chance this could happen again. The possibility of another hung parliament shouldn’t be completely ruled out and traders need to be prepared for such a scenario. This would further delay Brexit and mean continued uncertainty for UK businesses and the economy, which in turn could hit Sterling hard and take it back below 1.28.

US-China trade talks

With less than a week until the December 15 deadline for the US to impose new tariffs on China, investors will be closely watching statements from US and Chinese officials. As of now, all that we have heard about is that trade talks are heading in the right direction. However, there aren’t any signs yet of a deal taking place in the next few days.

With US equity markets holding near record highs, most market participants believe that new tariffs will be delayed. President Trump doesn’t want to upset investors as we approach the 2020 Presidential elections as he needs to improve his approval rating. But given his unpredictable nature, it’s very difficult to anticipate his next move.  A decision to delay tariffs for a few weeks, along with robust retail sales data released on Friday may provide a further push to equity markets. If Trump announces that December 15 tariffs will take effect, get ready for a big rally in safe-haven assets and a similar sized sell-off in stocks.

Fed and ECB policy decisions

After Friday’s robust US jobs report, Fed policymakers have strong justification as to why they will end the mid-cycle adjustment which has seen three interest rate cuts since July. We do not expect any significant change in language, but it will be interesting to see if growth and inflation forecasts have changed since September.

Inflation data will be released on the same day the Fed announces its decision. If CPI moves above 2%, there’s a chance the Fed will begin leaning towards tightening policy rather than loosening. That’s especially the case if a “phase one” trade deal gets signed. 

The ECB is also expected to stand pat when it delivers its policy decision the following day. Instead, the focus will be on Christine Lagarde’s press conference as she delivers her first statement at the helm of the central bank. Investors want to know whether her approach will represent a continuation of Draghi’s policies or whether she has a different strategy.

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Tinubu Launches Personal Income Tax Calculator to Improve Compliance, Fairness

By ORJI ISRAEL

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Bola Ahmed Tinubu
President Bola Tinubu

President Bola Tinubu has launched a Personal Income Tax Calculator to help Nigerians work out their tax obligations under the new tax law.

The tool is expected to make compliance easier and improve transparency in the system.

In a post on his X page, the president said the calculator shows how the recent reforms protect low-income earners while ensuring fairness.

“A fair tax system must never punish poverty or weigh down the most vulnerable. With the new tax laws I recently signed, taking effect from January 2026, we have lifted this burden and created a path of equity, fairness, and true redistribution in our economy,” Tinubu said.

Some months ago, he signed four major tax bills into law to bring Nigeria’s scattered tax system under one framework. These include the Nigeria Tax Administration Law, which sets out a uniform process for tax administration across federal, state, and local governments; the Nigeria Revenue Service (Establishment) Bill, which replaces the current Federal Inland Revenue Service Act with a stronger, more independent revenue agency; and the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) and Joint Revenue Board (Establishment) Bill, which creates a formal structure for cooperation between revenue bodies at all levels.

The introduction of the tax calculator, together with these reforms, is expected to reduce confusion for both individuals and businesses, while also making it easier for them to meet their obligations and contribute to national growth.

Tinubu added that the reforms are part of building renewed hope for the economy and urged Nigerians to trust in the country’s future for themselves and their families.

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Finance

FIRS e-Invoicing Hits 20% Adoption in Two Weeks

Reporter: SANDRA ANI

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VAT controversy | FIRS e-Invoicing

The Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) says that no fewer than 1,000 companies, representing 20% of total eligible firms, have begun integrating its newly launched electronic invoicing  (e-invoicing) system less than two weeks after it went live.

The FIRS e-invoicing platform, which went live on August 1, 2025, after a successful pilot phase that began in November 2024, was designed to modernise Nigeria’s tax administration, curb evasion, and enhance transparency in revenue generation. It also provides the FIRS with real-time visibility into commercial transactions, ensuring authenticity and completeness of invoices.

According to a statement by Dare Adekanmbi, special adviser on Media to FIRS Chairman Zacch Adedeji, at least 1,000 companies, representing 20% of more than 5,000 eligible firms, have already adopted the system and begun integrating with the FIRS platform.

Adekanmbi noted that the initiative, also known as the Merchant-Buyer Model, will be rolled out in phases. “Large taxpayers, which are companies with annual turnover of N5 billion and more, are expected to be the first to be onboarded on the platform,” he said.

FIRS revealed that MTN Nigeria was the first taxpayer to transmit live electronic invoices to the platform, while Huawei Nigeria and IHS Nigeria have concluded test transmissions and are expected to go live soon.

The agency added that the initial compliance deadline of August 1, 2025, has been extended by three months to accommodate companies currently facing onboarding challenges. The new deadline is now November 1, 2025.

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NGX Boss, Umaru Kwairanga, to Chair Business Journal Fintech Roundtable 2025

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NGX Boss, Umaru Kwairanga
NGX Boss, Umaru Kwairanga

Dr. Umaru Kwairanga, Group Chairman, Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX) will Chair the 2nd Business Journal Fintech & Financial Inclusion Roundtable 2025 scheduled for Friday, August 29, 2025 at Oriental Hotel, Lekki, Lagos. Time is 10-am prompt.

The theme of the Roundtable is: Fintech & Financial Inclusion: The Opportunities & Challenges for Nigeria.

In a statement, Prince Cookey, Publisher/Editor-in-Chief of Business Journal Media Group said the choice of Umaru Kwairanga to chair the event is a reflection of his immense and chequered journey in the Nigerian economic system over the years.

“Dr. Umaru Kwairanga is a noted player in the Nigerian economy and financial services sector. Over the years, he has carved a positive niche in driving the narrative in national policy formulation, implementation and review. He remains a worthy point of reference and role model to current and future players in the Nigerian economy.”

Alhaji (Dr.) Umaru Kwairanga, Sarkin Fulani Gombe and Group Chairman, Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX), is a notable player in the Nigerian corporate world, a thorough-bred professional and a prominent community leader in Gombe State and the North East region.

He has served at the highest levels of the banking, pension, investment, manufacturing and commercial sectors of Nigeria’s economy. He is the current Chairman of the Nigerian Exchange Group Plc, Nigeria’ oldest stock exchange and also Chairman of Tangerine General Insurance Limited.

The NGX Chairman is also a Director on the Boards of First Bank Senegal Limited, Tangerine Apt Pensions Limited and the Group Managing Director of Finmal Finance Services Limited.  

He is a past Chairman of Ashaka Cement plc and previously served on the Boards of Jaiz Bank Plc, Central Securities Clearing System Plc, Lafarge Africa Plc and First Bank Mortgages Limited to mention a few.

Professionally, Alhaji Kwairanga is a Fellow of the Chartered Institute of Stockbrokers, Chartered Institute of Directors of Nigeria, the Certified Pension Institute of Nigeria and the Abuja Commodities and Securities Exchange.

He is also a Council Member of the Chartered Institute of Stockbrokers; the Chartered Institute of Directors and he is the current President of the Certified Pensions Institute of Nigeria.

Kwairanga is a holder of the prominent traditional title of Sarkin Fulani Gombe and has led several initiatives for peace and development in Gombe State and the North East region in general.

He has also been involved in policy and strategy formulation in the public sector as a Member of the Vision 2020 Committee, the Presidential Advisory Committee on the Nigerian Industrial Revolution Plan and several committees of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

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