Health
Coronavirus and the Next Financial Global Crises
If financial markets are all about greed and fear, there’s nothing like a deadly new virus crossing international borders unpredictably to deliver a blow. Except even as China’s coronavirus continues to spread, stocks and bonds have generally rebounded from the initial shock, suggesting that Beijing has a firm handle on the situation.
Or does it? The answer is crucial for the current and potential virus victims, but it also suggests how well Chinese authorities might respond to a future financial crisis when contagion of a very different kind threatens the global economy. This remains a secondary concern as long as the epidemic remains uncontained, but long-term investors in China or anything related to China—which means everyone—should watch closely.
So far, Chinese authorities get good marks for massive administrative response and improving engagement with international counterparts, but the tight control over information flows continues to undermine confidence that we know all we need to know. If they follow that same pattern when this very large, heavily indebted and generally opaque economy hits an air pocket, global markets may be in for a very rough ride.
For all the concerns that Western democracies have about China’s political system, the government has leapt into action as the coronavirus spread. In Wuhan, a city larger than New York, factories, schools and shops have been shuttered. Transportation in and out of the city is heavily restricted. A 1,000-bed hospital has been erected in just 10 days; the time-lapse video is amazing until you learn that an even bigger one nearby is approaching completion.
It’s a breathtaking response that would be unimaginable in, say, New York.
Wuhan and the surrounding Hubei Province are home to roughly two-thirds of the cases and 98% of the deaths from the virus. But the government’s response has extended across the country, dispatching drones equipped with cameras and speakers to encourage people to wear face masks and culling train records to identify passengers sitting near anyone who contracted the virus.
The government’s outreach to international organizations has not been flawless but compares well to its early silence during the 2003–04 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) epidemic, when it waited nearly three months to report the outbreak to the World Health Organization (WHO). By then there had already been five deaths and hundreds of infections. The government’s initial report to the WHO this time was December 31, 2019, three weeks before the first human-to-human transmission drew broad media attention.
The WHO has generally praised China for its vigorous response to the crisis. President Donald Trump issued supportive tweets, too, following a Friday call with President Xi Jinping. And while Chinese officials have grumbled at what they consider an overreaction by the U.S. government to officially discourage travel to China, U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar nevertheless recognized the steps Beijing is taking to coordinate its efforts with international public health counterparts, while continuing to encourage transparency.
Transparency, however, has rarely been China’s strong suit. Even as they filed a timely WHO report, Chinese officials kept a tight lid on coronavirus news and social media chatter within the country. This not only may have aided the initial spread of the disease, but it continues to fuel rumors and mistrust among Chinese citizens, some of whom have taken to posting reviews of the HBO series “Chernobyl” as an allusion to government censorship amid spreading danger. Add to this the elements of drama and tragedy following the death last week of Dr. Li Wenliang, the physician whose initial warnings of the deadly virus led to his being silenced by Chinese police.
If it seems crass to draw parallels between a public health crisis and a financial crisis, the lessons are instructive in both directions. Financial contagion spreads when risks are high and transparency is low, in many ways like a virus. Bondholders struggling with debt sustainability analyses rely on poor or underreported data and heroic assumptions about human behavior just as epidemiologists try to model pandemic risks.
Governments often struggle between their understanding of the benefits of market forces and their urge to maintain control, but China’s dilemma is especially acute in its financial sector. A new policy to allow more flexibility in the renminbi exchange rate in 2015 led to a sharp selloff as traders misunderstood the change. The government’s current efforts to allow some banks to fail and share costs with investors has put the entire sector under suspicion.
The worry for global investors comes from China’s increasing integration in both global trade flows and global financial flows. Already, shifts in China’s economy reverberate in Ohio and Baden-Württemberg. A significant disruption in Chinese financial markets will have consequences for the S&P, the Nikkei and many a bank in between.
Successfully addressing any such crisis will require swift action, close cooperation and reliable transparency, which is what makes the handling of the current coronavirus so instructive. For the victims and potential victims of the disease, Chinese officials must succeed as quickly as possible. For investors, however, it is also important just how they succeed.
Dr. Christopher Smart is Chief Global Strategist and Head of the Barings Investment Institute
Health
Enhancement of Military Health Services: Matawalle Meets U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defence for Health
In a significant move to bolster Defence Health Services and strengthen the partnership between the United States and Nigeria, the Minister of State for Defence, H.E. Dr. Muhammad Bello Matawalle, met with a U.S. delegation led by Dr. David Smith, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defence for Health.
A statement endorsed by Henshaw Ogubike, director of Information and PR at the Ministry, shows that the the meeting focused on enhancing the existing collaboration in defence health between the two nations, which has previously facilitated the establishment of high-tech laboratories in Nigeria.
The Honourable Minister commended the U.S. for their efforts and urged for the expansion of these medical facilities beyond Abuja and Lagos to reach more derserved regions.
Dr. Matawalle emphasized the strategic integration of health services to improve the welfare of the Armed Forces of Nigeria, stating, “A healthy military is the backbone of a strong nation.” He reiterated the government’s commitment to ensuring that military personnel have access to top-tier healthcare services and facilities. To this end, he called for an increase in the defence budget allocated to health, viewing it as a vital investment in the nation’s future and stability.
Furthermore, the Minister highlighted that these initiatives align with Nigeria’s broader commitment to enhancing military readiness while addressing public health challenges that affect both service members and the civilian population. He noted that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration is dedicated to improving healthcare for military personnel and civilians, recognizing healthcare as a cornerstone of national security.
In his remarks, the Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Defence, Dr. Ibrahim Abubakar Kana mni, stated that this initiative would positively impact military health and serve as a model for strengthening Nigeria’s overall healthcare system. “This collaboration marks a turning point for Nigeria’s defence health system,” he asserted.
Dr. Smith praised the Minister for his proactive approach to health readiness, underscoring the critical connection between health systems and military effectiveness. “Health is as crucial as any weapon system in ensuring military success, and we are committed to supporting Nigeria’s efforts to enhance its defence health system,” he remarked.
The U.S. delegation is in Nigeria to further advance initiatives aimed at sustaining progress against HIV, accelerating efforts towards the United Nations’ 95-95-95 goals, and working towards the elimination of HIV as a public health threat by 2030.
Health
Neptune Prime publisher to unveil cancer clinic, school, foundation for late journalists’ families as son weds in Yobe
The publisher of Neptune Prime newspapers, Dr Hassan Gimba, has announced plans to commission three major projects in his home state, Yobe State
In an invitation letter sent to newsmen on Wednesday, the publisher disclosed that the event, which is scheduled to take place on August 31, is coinciding with the wedding Fatiha of his son, Barrister Suleiman Gimba.
According to the letter, the wedding Fatiha will take place by 11:00am at the residence of Mohammed Babate, Behind Water Board, Army Barracks, Potiskum.
“Immediately after the wedding Fatihah, we will be commissioning the Hafsatu Gimba Ahmed Memorial School located at VIO Street, Unguwar Jaji, Potiskum.
“This institution is dedicated to the memory of my late mother, aiming to serve the educational needs of our community,” the letter noted.
Dr Gimba added that as part of the launch programme, the Abubakar Monja Lifeline Foundation for Late Journalists’ Families, which he founded to cater to the families of journalists who have passed away, will be empowering youths it trained in tailoring and plumbing.
“Additionally, I would like to invite you to inspect the ongoing construction of the Lami Fatima Babare Cancer Outreach and Clinic situated nearby, also in Unguwar Jaji.
“The clinic is an initiative of the Lami Fatima Babare Cervical Cancer Foundation, which was founded in 2020 – in memory of my late wife, Lami Fatima Babare – to provide medical services and referrals to cancer patients,” the letter noted.
The Enugu State Government has announced its intention to revamp the existing infrastructural facilities to give the Enugu State College of Health Technology in Oji River a face-lift and also scale-up institution to a technology-savvy citadel of learning.
The government made this known during a meeting with the management, staff, and students of the institution at the Enugu State Government House at the weekend, stressing its commitment to ensuring quality health service delivery in the state.
The government, which made this known through the Special Adviser on Health Matters, Dr. Yomi Jaye, also asked the students of the institution to go back to school and continue with their academic calendar, as all those involved in the recent breach of security in the school’s neighborhood had been rounded up and now facing the law.
The governor equally gave the college management a two-week ultimatum to develop a workplan, which the government would work on to ensure that the school functions at its optimum level.
Briefing Government House correspondents after the meeting, Dr. Jaye said, “We interacted with the management, staff and students of the Enugu State College of Health Technology, Orji River, to come up with a strategic plan to revamp the college and restore its lost glory.
His Excellency, Governor Peter Mbah, has expressed his willingness not only to revamp the school, but to upscale it to a technology-savvy teaching community.
“As you can see, the government is bullish about building Type-2 Healthcare Centre in each of the 260 wards and this college will produce some of the qualified workers that will deliver quality healthcare services to Ndi Enugu.
“We appeal to the parents and guardians to allow the students to go back to school and resume their academic activities as more security personnel have been deployed to make sure that both Oji River and its neighbouring communities are properly secured.
“It is also important to inform you that those who perpetrated the security breach have since been arrested and the victims, which included one student, also freed,” he maintained.
Also speaking, the Provost of the College, Dr. Lazarus Ezugwu, expressed his happiness over the state government’s move to revamp the institution, saying he was optimistic that the glory of the institution would be restored in no distant time.
When commending Governor Peter Mbah and the security agencies for their swift response to the recent security breach at the College, he also confirmed that security had been strengthened around the institution and Oji River in general.
“The meeting is such a commendable one. It goes a long way in telling us the type of visionary leader we have in the state. To be sincere, the total overhaul that will be done in the college is going to be enormous. What is coming to the college cannot be imagined because the governor has shown both special interest and political will. This is what we have been yearning for, for so many years,” Dr. Ezugwu stated.
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