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AGUSTO & CO: The State of the Nigerian Electric Power Industry – Is there any light at the end of the Tunnel?

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As the Electric Power Industry (the Industry) announced yet another review of electric tariffs in January 2021, after much deliberation and delays, a key question that comes to mind is ‘will a rise in tariffs result in better power supply?’ To answer this question it is imperative to examine the state of the Industry post-privatisation.

Since the privatisation exercise that commenced in 2013, the Nigerian Electric Power Industry has remained fraught with many of the same challenges ranging from unreflective tariffs to high loss levels, obsolete infrastructure, weak policy implementation and gas shortages. All of these have culminated in weak and erratic power supply and a dependence on self-generation by many businesses and households.

Furthermore, electricity distribution in Nigeria remains plagued by high technical, operational and commercial inefficiencies. In 2020, the country’s 11 Distribution companies (DisCos) only billed for 74% of the energy received from the transmission company, below the 81% reported in the prior year. Billing efficiency which has historically been impaired by a low metering rate and energy theft, with only 37% of registered electricity customers metered in 2020, was severely impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Agusto & Co believes the impact of the pandemic was more visible amongst consumer groups with post-paid meters and estimated bills given that the social distancing rules and movement restrictions established to curb the spread of the virus impaired the physical billing process.

Collection efficiency also fell marginally to 66% from 68% one year prior. Consequently, the aggregate technical, commercial and collection (ATC&C) losses for the 11 DisCos rose to 51% in 2020 from 45% in 2019. This high loss level remains one of the many reasons for the kickback from electricity consumers on tariff increases, especially in the absence of a significant and immediate improvement in power supply.

Agusto & Co notes that these challenges have not only weakened the ability of operators to meet electricity demand but also threaten their financial viability, with significant implications for the fiscal health of the country. Despite the series of amendments to the tariff structure, cash flows from MYTO (the Multi Year Tariff Order) have remained insufficient to fully cover the costs of electricity supplied.

The fear of the impact of a ‘rate shock’ on consumers and the accompanying loss of “political capital” has prevented the effective implementation of necessary amendments that will align the MYTO’s assumptions with economic realities. Electricity has thus consistently been sold at a discount, with end-user electricity tariffs much lower than the cost of electricity supplied.

The shortfall from unreflective tariffs has been borne in large parts by the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) through multiple intervention funds and payment assurance facilities from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) totaling close to ₦2 trillion[1] (US$4.9 billion[2]) as at the end of 2020, equivalent to c.6% of CBN’s balance sheet. Despite this level of intervention, the generating companies had estimated receivables of over ₦400 billion in 2020 alone. Whilst the interventions have been central in ensuring the profitability of operators along the Industry’s value chain, they remain insufficient and unsustainable.

More recently, there have been notable efforts by the primary regulator – NERC – to minimise the challenges faced by operators in the Industry. In particular, tariffs have been raised to near cost reflective levels and adjusted to match consumption via an initiative dubbed Service Reflective Tariffs (SRT). The new tariff model as the name indicates is expected to reflect and match the quality of service received by the ultimate consumers of electricity. Distribution companies will therefore discriminate in the application of tariffs; consumers who enjoy longer daily supply will be expected to pay higher rates and vice versa.

The SRT like other MYTO models has key estimates (and projections) for macroeconomic and industry-specific indicators including inflation, exchange rates and electricity generation. Other company-dependent factors considered in the determination of tariffs include the amount of electricity received and the aggregate technical, commercial and collection (ATC&C) losses. Ultimately, tariff shortfalls (the difference between end-user tariffs and cost reflective tariffs) are expected to taper off by the end of 2022, with tariffs fully reflective and sufficient to cover the cost of production.

Whilst a number of the assumptions align with market realities, we note that the inflation and electricity generation estimates in the SRT model are much higher than the actual entries reported for the corresponding periods. In our view, these disparities have the potential to impair the attainment of cost reflectiveness. Agusto & Co believes adopting scenario analysis and modelling will provide a more robust framework to determine an appropriate tariff structure for the Industry in a dynamic macroeconomic environment such as Nigeria’s.

In addition to the SRT, the primary regulator – the National Electricity Commission (NERC) – introduced a minimum remittance threshold for each distribution company which stipulates a mandatory payment that must be made to the bulk trader for electricity received. Furthermore, in February 2020, NERC introduced guidelines for ‘Merit Order Dispatching’ which involves ranking electricity generation and dispatch by the transmission company of Nigeria (TCN) in ascending order of costs with the cheapest electricity – such as those from Hydro plants with no fuel cost component – ahead of more expensive plants. The order also provides guidelines on the alignment of invoicing for capacity charge and energy delivered as well as a framework for the settlement of any imbalance between DisCos and TCN. The Merit Dispatching Order should eliminate the shift of responsibility for load rejection prevalent between DisCos and the TCN and improve the technical and operational efficiencies of these operators.

In August 2020, the Central Bank of Nigeria issued a circular that all deposit money banks are expected to warehouse and manage collection inflows from all distribution companies – DisCos, (including the collection agents of these DisCos) under specific guidelines as contained in the document. The objective of this ‘ring fencing’ is to secure cash collected from the DisCos and ensure that these distribution companies meet their mandatory obligations.

While operators are generally optimistic that the new tariffs and accompanying regulations would enhance efficiency and position the Industry on the trajectory towards achieving financial independence and ultimately improvements in the volume and quality of electricity supply, Agusto & Co remains cautious. In our view, to truly achieve the objectives of privatisation, reforms need to be accompanied by a strong and enabling regulatory environment. Furthermore, improved access to finance, efficiency in billing and metering as well as consistent and secure gas supply are vital to reap the benefits of privatization in the long run. While the journey to constant electric power supply remains far and long-winded, Agusto & Co believes the initiatives undertaken by the primary regulator – NERC– if consistently enforced have the potential to move the Industry forward in the right direction.

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NUJ at 70: Private Broadcast Members Congratulate Union

Reporter: Ikenna Oluka

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NUJ at 70
NUJ

The Guild of Private Broadcast Managers  has extended its heartfelt congratulations to the Nigeria Union of Journalists (NUJ) as it celebrates its 70th Anniversary.

In a congratulatory message signed by the Guild’s National President, Ambassador Patrick Uzoyi-Peters, JP MNGRM, the guild described the milestone as a testament to the NUJ’s unwavering commitment to upholding press freedom, journalistic integrity, and the advancement of democracy in Nigeria.

“For seven decades, the NUJ has played a pivotal role in shaping the media landscape, advocating for the rights and welfare of journalists, and ensuring that the voice of the people remains strong and unyielding. Your resilience, professionalism, and dedication to ethical journalism have been instrumental in fostering transparency, accountability, and national development”.

Celebrating this historic achievement, the Guild’s President, Uzoyi-Peters recognized the sacrifices and contributions of journalists across the nation who work tirelessly to inform, educate, and empower society.

The Guild reiterated it commitment towards collaborating with the NUJ in promoting responsible journalism and strengthening the media industry for the greater good.

While wishing the NUJ continued success, growth, and greater impact in the years ahead, President Uzoyi-Peters prayed that the anniversary serve as a renewed call to uphold the principles of truth, fairness, and press freedom in our collective pursuit of a more informed and just society.

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Family Marks one-year Memorial of Late APC Chieftain, Ojougboh with Charity Outreach

By Ikenna Oluka

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Mrs. Bose Ojougboh
Mrs. Bose Ojougboh, wife of the Late Dr. Cairo Ojougboh (Centre) flanked by other members of Dr. Cairo Ojougboh Foundation during the outreach programme.

The family of the late chieftain of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Chief Dr. Cairo Ojougboh, led by his wife, Mrs. Bose Ojougboh, marked his one-year memorial anniversary with a series of charitable initiatives aimed at honoring his legacy of philanthropy and service to society.

The memorial activities included the donation of school books and bags to pupils of Erigbe Primary School, in Agbor within the Ika South Local Government Area (LGA) of Delta State, where Dr. Ojougboh had received his early education.

The outreach also included extension of financial assistance to patients at Central Hospital, Agbor, and the provision of toiletries, cash, and food items to children at the Salve Regina Children’s Home, Agbor.

The outreach was carried out under the ‘Dr. Cairo Ojougboh Foundation’, a family-led initiative established to immortalise him and continue his lifelong commitment to education, healthcare, and social welfare.

Speaking during the event which took place recently, Mrs. Ojougboh reaffirmed the family’s dedication to sustaining the ideals of the late APC chieftain, describing him as a man who strongly believed in education and giving back to society.

“We are here to celebrate the life of my husband, Late Dr. Cairo Ojougboh, who passed on a year ago. In his honour, we decided to give back to society. He was a man who valued education and was always willing to help others. It is only fitting that we continue his legacy through acts of generosity,” she stated.

Honouring his passion for education

The first visit was to Erigbe Primary School, where Dr. Ojougboh had received his early education. The Foundation distributed school bags, writing materials, and food packs to the pupils. The family encouraged the pupils to take their education seriously and strive to become responsible citizens.

Supporting patients at Central Hospital, Agbor

At Central Hospital, Agbor, Mrs. Ojougboh and her entourage moved through the medical wards, offering financial support to patients to assist with their treatment costs. The hospital staff and beneficiaries responded with prayers and words of gratitude for the kind gesture.

Reaching out to orphaned children

The outreach team also visited Salve Regina Children’s Home in Agbor where they donated cash, food items, and toiletries to the children.

Mrs. Bose Ojougboh -
members of Dr. Cairo Ojougboh Foundation during the outreach programme.

The Matron of the home expressed her deep appreciation to the Ojougboh family, commending their commitment to sustaining the late politician’s legacy of compassion and social impact.

Dr. Cairo Ojougboh’s enduring legacy

Reflecting on her late husband’s contributions to society, Mrs. Ojougboh emphasised that his legacy of generosity and service to humanity would not be forgotten.

“Dr. Cairo was a selfless man who touched many lives. His contributions to the Nigerian political landscape, his mark in Agbor Kingdom, Delta State, and the country at large, will always be remembered. He may be gone, but his impact will continue to be felt for generations,” she said.

The Dr. Cairo Ojougboh Foundation has pledged to continue supporting education, healthcare, and social welfare initiatives in his memory, ensuring that his vision for a better society lives on.

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Widows, Wives and More than 2,000 Residents of Ikeja Police Barracks Benefit from YP4T’s Initiative

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YP4T
L-r: Alex Oware, Director, YP4T; a beneficiary; Dr. Love V. Tinuoye (C.E.O. Medvita Consultancy); Pharm. Enobong S. Useh (M.D. Medvita Pharmacy and Stores LTD); Mrs Jumoke Elom, beneficiary; Ojey Victor Benjamin, Director, YP4T.

More than 2,000 individuals from the Ikeja Police Barracks community benefited from an impactful outreach program spearheaded by Young Professionals for Tinubu (YP4T), an advocacy and support group working in alignment with the Renewed Hope Agenda of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

The initiative provided critical medical services, care packages, food supplies, and financial assistance to widows, wives, and vulnerable residents, demonstrating the heart of nation-building through community-centered support.

The program, which united healthcare professionals, community organizers, and volunteers, complemented the government’s broader efforts to bring essential services closer to the people.

Residents of the Ikeja Police Barracks received free medical consultations, blood pressure and diabetes screenings, and wellness advice. Widows and families also left with care packages filled with food items, toiletries, and financial support to help alleviate the pressures of the holiday season.

Dr. Love V. Tinuoye, CEO of Medvita Consultancy and the lead doctor on-site, reflected on the impact:

“This initiative reflects a collective commitment to advancing healthcare in Nigeria. We were able to screen for and address critical health issues such as hypertension and diabetes while also providing preventive care like vaccinations and cancer screenings. This is what true community-focused care looks like.”

Beyond medical services, the outreach distributed care packages containing food staples, toiletries, and financial support, designed to alleviate the challenges faced by vulnerable members of the police barracks community.

The event highlights the ongoing efforts under the Renewed Hope Agenda to provide inclusive support for Nigerians across the country. Initiatives like this not only extend access to essential services but also strengthen the fabric of communities.

Mrs. Jumoke Elom, a businesswoman and beneficiary, shared her gratitude:

“I am deeply grateful for this program. The care my family received today—both medical and material—has given us hope and reminded us that we are not alone. It shows that there is real support for families like mine.”

The outreach program was also a platform for demonstrating the principles of nation-building through collaborative action. Alex Oware, Security Expert and Director of YP4T, explained the motivation behind the initiative: “The Renewed Hope Agenda is about about bringing real transformation to communities. This initiative embodies that vision by supporting over 2,000 people—not just through tangible resources, but by reaffirming their place in the collective growth of our nation. It lies at the soul of Renewed Hope: fostering resilience and creating opportunities for all Nigerians.”

The outreach program extended beyond healthcare, providing food and financial support to families within the police barracks. A touching moment involved a widow who, after receiving her care package, expressed her gratitude with tears of joy. Her story is just one of many that reflect the transformative power of collective action.

This initiative by YP4T—an advocacy and support group of Nigerian professionals from across the globe—represents a continued commitment to driving grassroots impact, inspired by President Tinubu’s vision. The success of the Ikeja outreach program demonstrates the power of collaboration between the public and private sectors to deliver meaningful change across Nigeria.

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