Finance
Q2 Outlook for Oil and what this means for the Nigerian economy
BY: Lukman Otunuga, FXTM Research Analyst
Q2 Outlook – WTI Oil: Near 30% rally in Oil so far this year unjustifiable
The near 30% rally in WTI Oil during the first quarter of 2019 is difficult to justify when taking into account the progressive concerns that are mounting regarding a global economic downturn.
The rally has been supported by improved market confidence that efforts from OPEC+ have tightened the supply in the market, but whether this encouraging sentiment can continue would likely depend on whether Russia continues to support production cuts.
As such, a result to an unprecedented 30% rally over the last quarter, the commodity is going to enter the new quarter as a prime contender to suffer from a market correction. The probability is high that fears over a deceleration in world economic momentum will only get louder as the year progresses, meaning Oil investors will need to re-assess into expectations what impact a global slowdown will have on future demand.
A plethora of evidence through data releases from different economies across the globe has already pointed out that a downturn in growth is impending – if the slowdown hasn’t already arrived.
Market perception is that OPEC cuts are working but demand outlook at risk
One of the major risks for the price of Oil in the second quarter is the increased probability that world economic forecasts for 2019 will be revised lower. While a great volume of noise in the Oil atmosphere is created around headlines involving production, OPEC or even more recently OPEC+, it often gets underlooked just how important Oil demand is for its valuation.
Reduced demand is a negative for Oil price and the prospect of further lower demand on global economic health fears will risk re-igniting oversupply concerns that have dominated headlines since the spectacular price crash first occurred in 2014, despite repeated measures and attempts by OPEC and co to rebalance the market.
Iran waivers a wildcard, Saudi Arabia to remain committed to output cuts
If you were to take the contrarian view, there are a few reasons to remain optimistic that Oil can resume its price rebound in Q2.
This would however, include some unpredictable risk elements around politics for a commodity that has historically behaved with an extreme level of sensitivity to politics.
Waivers on Iranian sanctions are set to expire over the coming months and if President Trump adopts a hardline approach that results in the taps for Iranian Oil supply being turned off, the subsequent change in the production outlook would prove tempting for potential buyers.
Venezuela is another market that has come under the threat of sanctions following recent domestic unrest, while suspicions remain that Saudi Arabia will maintain its underlying commitment towards tightening the available supply of Oil to achieve stronger valuations to help the Kingdom achieve its fiscal targets.
Do not underestimate risk Trump speaking against Oil rally will have on future outlook
Another factor that needs to be taken into account when factoring in potential risks that can swing the hammer of the Oil price in either direction is President Trump.
The President of the United States has made it perfectly clear on numerous occasions that his desire is for Oil prices to return to lower levels for a prolonged period. He has already commented via social media feeds that the Oil price is too high and while he might not be President of a nation that is either a traditional member of OPEC nor OPEC+, he carries the ability to influence world financial markets.
When it comes to President Trump’s influence on financial markets it is never an occasion that investors can prepare for when it will happen, but Trump has proven in office that he has a tendency of getting his way in the end, and I would personally not want to be on the wrong side of the trade when the President of the United States is demanding for lower Oil valuations.
What does this all mean for the Nigerian economy?
Although Nigeria remains on a quest to diversify away from Oil reliance, a handsome chunk of the nation’s export earnings is from Oil sales. While rising Oil prices will boost government revenues, provide foreign exchange stability and support economic growth, it leaves the country vulnerable to external shocks.
With robust production from US Shale stimulating oversupply concerns and fears around slowing global growth potentially impacting demand, Oil’s upside seems limited. If Oil prices end up depreciating back below $60 in Q2, this will not only impact growth prospects but also Nigeria’s efforts to support its 2019 budget.
The ramifications of such a development will most likely complicate the Central Bank of Nigeria’s efforts to cut rates further in an effort to boost economic growth. However, further signs of Nigeria breaking away from Oil reliance to other sustainable sources of growth such as agriculture have the potential to limit shocks created from Oil volatility.
WTI knocking on the door at $60, but is anyone home?
Focusing on the technical picture, WTI Crude has reached tough resistance on the monthly charts with $60 acting as a barrier for bulls preventing prices by being pushed higher.
The $60 level ironically also reflects the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the October – December 2018 downtrend, which helps explain why we are noticing a trend of selling pressure jumping back in the market close to $60.
Until Oil is able to secure a decisive monthly close above $60, it looks like a ceiling is in place for Oil bulls and selling rallies below this level is going to remain as a tempting strategy for bearish investors.
A weekly close below $56 will act as a signal for further downside with $52, $50 and $47.80 acting as key points of interest.
If prices are able to conquer $60, Oil has scope to challenge $65.
Finance
Flutterwave Activates American Express Payments for its Merchants in Nigeria
Flutterwave, Africa’s leading payments technology company, has announced today that its online merchants in Nigeria can now accept American Express payments.
American Express Card Members – with consumer, business, or corporate cards – will be able to make payments directly to e-commerce businesses using Flutterwave in Nigeria.
This service will also be available to Flutterwave merchants in other countries including Tanzania, Rwanda, Ghana and Uganda in the near future.
This collaboration facilitates online transactions and offers a range of benefits for both merchants and online shoppers:
- Flutterwave merchants can attract business from a new customer base of American Express Card Members in Africa and around the world. This includes consumers with personal cards and spenders with business or corporate products. Terms and conditions apply.
- For shoppers, there is more choice when it comes to being able to select their preferred method of payment when transacting with Flutterwave merchants. This collaboration strengthens the American Express global network and increases the number of locations across Africa that can be used by American Express Card Members to purchase a range of different goods and services.
Speaking on the development, Olugbenga ‘GB’ Agboola, Founder and CEO, Flutterwave, said:“At Flutterwave, we’re always looking for ways to connect the world to Africa through payments. This is one of our initiatives to ensure that more people across the world can pay using Flutterwave in Africa. We understand the value of providing shoppers with payment methods that work for them, as well as helping businesses to expand their customer bases. This collaboration also provides more options of where to shop and what to buy to American Express card holders across the globe. By offering American Express as a method of payment, Flutterwave will make the payment process faster and simpler for American Express card holders, and improve the experience for e-commerce businesses using Flutterwave, helping them to start locally and sell globally.”
On his part, Briana Wilsey, Vice President and General Manager of Global Network Services EMEA at American Express, said: “American Express continues to expand in Africa to enable greater payment choice for businesses and consumers. Through the agreement with Flutterwave, a trusted payment provider, we are giving e-commerce merchants in Nigeria the opportunity to reach American Express Card Members around the world. The collaboration is a win-win because it also increases the number of places where our Card Members can use their Cards in Nigeria.”
Flutterwave and American Express share similar visions; to enable businesses across the world to expand their operations in Africa and other emerging markets through a platform that enables local and cross-border transactions via one Application Programming Interface (API).
Flutterwave has processed over 630M transactions in excess of USD $31B, serves global and African customers like Uber, Air Peace, Bamboo, PiggyVest, and across various industries. On the other hand, American Express is a globally integrated payments company, providing customers with access to products, insights and experiences that enrich lives and build business success.
Finance
NNPC Releases 2023 Audited Financial Statement
…Posts N3.3trn Net Profit, Declares N2.1trn Dividend
…Targets 2mbpd Crude Oil Production by December 2024
The NNPC Limited has released its 2023 Audited Financial Statement (AFS), declaring a net profit of N3.297 trillion at the close of the financial year which ended in December 2023, an increase of over N700billion (28%) when compared to the 2022 profit of N2.548trillion.
In a world press conference held at the NNPC Towers in Abuja on Monday, the Chief Financial Officer of the Company, Mr. Umar Ajiya said the release of the AFS is a testament to the Company’s commitment to transparency and accountability.
“Our fiscal performance reflects both strategic foresight and operational resilience. Despite inherent challenges of our operational and economic environment, we have improved the productivity and the financial performance of this great company,” Ajiya stated.
Ajiya added that posting such impressive returns demonstrates NNPC Ltd’s commitment to sustaining profitability and supporting the attainment of national energy security as stipulated by the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021, and by extension, as expected by the Company’s shareholders.
Explaining that the NNPC Ltd will announce Initial Public offer (IPO) once the shareholders and Board make a decision, Ajiya also debunked claims on subsidy payment, saying the Company was only taking care of the shortfall on PMS importation between it and the Federation.
Speaking earlier at the press conference, the Chairman of the NNPC Ltd Board, Chief Pius Akinyelure said that the excellent performance came as the fruit of the PIA 2021, the commitment of the Board, Management and staff of the company.
Akinyelure added that the shareholders of the company have since approved a final dividend of N2.1trn in line with PIA 2021 provisions.
In her remarks at the briefing, the Executive Vice President, Upstream, Mrs. Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan said with improvements witnessed as a result of the renewed vigour in the war against crude oil theft and pipeline vandalism, NNPC Ltd is targeting 2million barrels per day crude oil production by the the end of the year.
On the current fuel queues in parts of Lagos and the FCT, the Executive Vice President, Downstream, Mr. Dapo Segun appealed for understanding from Nigerians, saying that the the Company is working with relevant stakeholders to address the distribution, evacuation and logistics challenges.
It would be recalled that in 2021, NNPC declared profit in its operations for the first time. From a loss position of N803 billion in 2018, it reduced the loss further down to N1.7 billion in 2019.
However, in 2020, it posted its ‘first ever’ profit of N287 billion, then in 2021, it recorded a N674.1 billion profit and in 2022, the profit grew to N2.548, an unprecedented achievement in its financial performance. The N3.297 trillion profit declared for 2023 is the highest since the Company’s inception, 46 years ago.
Finance
Banks To Now Charge 0.5% Cybersecurity Levy As Directed By CBN; Netizens React
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has directed deposit money banks in the country to start charging 0.5% cybersecurity levy on some transactions done by their customers.
The apex bank gave the directive in a circular dated May 6, 2024 and sent to all commercial, merchant, non-interest and payment service banks as well as mobile money operators and payment service providers.
“Following the enactment of the Cybercrime (Prohibition, Prevention, etc) (amendment) Act 2024 and pursuant to the provision of Section 44 (2) (a) of the Act, ‘a levy of 0.5% (0.005) equivalent to a half percent of all electronic transactions value by the business specified in the Second Schedule of the Act’, is to be remitted to the National Cybersecurity Fund (NCF), which shall be administered by the Office of the National Security Adviser (ONSA),” the circular partly read.
The apex bank said that the implementation of the levy would start two weeks from the date of the circular.
“The levy shall be applied at the point of electronic transfer origination, then deducted and remitted by the financial institution. The deducted amount shall be reflected in the customer’s account with the narration, ‘Cybersecurity Levy’. Deductions shall commence within two weeks from the date of this circular for all financial institutions and the monthly remittance of the levies collected in bulk to the NCF account domiciled at the CBN by the fifth business day of every subsequent month,” the circular said
The apex bank added that this new levy will not be applied on transactions such as loan disbursements and repayments, salary payments, intra-account transfers within the same bank or between different banks for the same customer, intra-bank transfers between customers of the same bank.
Also exempted from the levy were inter-branch transfers within a bank, cheque clearing and settlements, Letters of Credits, Banks’ recapitalisation-related funding only bulk funds movement from collection accounts, savings and deposits including transactions involving long-term investments, among others.
This current implementation however is not sitting well with some netizens as they reacted to the new development.
Here were some of their reactions from X.
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