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Q2 Outlook for Oil and what this means for the Nigerian economy

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BY: Lukman Otunuga, FXTM Research Analyst

Q2 Outlook – WTI Oil: Near 30% rally in Oil so far this year unjustifiable

The near 30% rally in WTI Oil during the first quarter of 2019 is difficult to justify when taking into account the progressive concerns that are mounting regarding a global economic downturn.

The rally has been supported by improved market confidence that efforts from OPEC+ have tightened the supply in the market, but whether this encouraging sentiment can continue would likely depend on whether Russia continues to support production cuts.

As such, a result to an unprecedented 30% rally over the last quarter, the commodity is going to enter the new quarter as a prime contender to suffer from a market correction. The probability is high that fears over a deceleration in world economic momentum will only get louder as the year progresses, meaning Oil investors will need to re-assess into expectations what impact a global slowdown will have on future demand.

A plethora of evidence through data releases from different economies across the globe has already pointed out that a downturn in growth is impending – if the slowdown hasn’t already arrived.

Market perception is that OPEC cuts are working but demand outlook at risk

One of the major risks for the price of Oil in the second quarter is the increased probability that world economic forecasts for 2019 will be revised lower. While a great volume of noise in the Oil atmosphere is created around headlines involving production, OPEC or even more recently OPEC+, it often gets underlooked just how important Oil demand is for its valuation.

Reduced demand is a negative for Oil price and the prospect of further lower demand on global economic health fears will risk re-igniting oversupply concerns that have dominated headlines since the spectacular price crash first occurred in 2014, despite repeated measures and attempts by OPEC and co to rebalance the market.

Iran waivers a wildcard, Saudi Arabia to remain committed to output cuts

If you were to take the contrarian view, there are a few reasons to remain optimistic that Oil can resume its price rebound in Q2.

This would however, include some unpredictable risk elements around politics for a commodity that has historically behaved with an extreme level of sensitivity to politics.

Waivers on Iranian sanctions are set to expire over the coming months and if President Trump adopts a hardline approach that results in the taps for Iranian Oil supply being turned off, the subsequent change in the production outlook would prove tempting for potential buyers.

Venezuela is another market that has come under the threat of sanctions following recent domestic unrest, while suspicions remain that Saudi Arabia will maintain its underlying commitment towards tightening the available supply of Oil to achieve stronger valuations to help the Kingdom achieve its fiscal targets.

Do not underestimate risk Trump speaking against Oil rally will have on future outlook

Another factor that needs to be taken into account when factoring in potential risks that can swing the hammer of the Oil price in either direction is President Trump.

The President of the United States has made it perfectly clear on numerous occasions that his desire is for Oil prices to return to lower levels for a prolonged period. He has already commented via social media feeds that the Oil price is too high and while he might not be President of a nation that is either a traditional member of OPEC nor OPEC+, he carries the ability to influence world financial markets. 

When it comes to President Trump’s influence on financial markets it is never an occasion that investors can prepare for when it will happen, but Trump has proven in office that he has a tendency of getting his way in the end, and I would personally not want to be on the wrong side of the trade when the President of the United States is demanding for lower Oil valuations.

What does this all mean for the Nigerian economy?

Although Nigeria remains on a quest to diversify away from Oil reliance, a handsome chunk of the nation’s export earnings is from Oil sales. While rising Oil prices will boost government revenues, provide foreign exchange stability and support economic growth, it leaves the country vulnerable to external shocks.

With robust production from US Shale stimulating oversupply concerns and fears around slowing global growth potentially impacting demand, Oil’s upside seems limited. If Oil prices end up depreciating back below $60 in Q2, this will not only impact growth prospects but also Nigeria’s efforts to support its 2019 budget.

The ramifications of such a development will most likely complicate the Central Bank of Nigeria’s efforts to cut rates further in an effort to boost economic growth. However, further signs of Nigeria breaking away from Oil reliance to other sustainable sources of growth such as agriculture have the potential to limit shocks created from Oil volatility.

WTI knocking on the door at $60, but is anyone home?

Focusing on the technical picture, WTI Crude has reached tough resistance on the monthly charts with $60 acting as a barrier for bulls preventing prices by being pushed higher.

The $60 level ironically also reflects the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the October – December 2018 downtrend, which helps explain why we are noticing a trend of selling pressure jumping back in the market close to $60.

Until Oil is able to secure a decisive monthly close above $60, it looks like a ceiling is in place for Oil bulls and selling rallies below this level is going to remain as a tempting strategy for bearish investors.

A weekly close below $56 will act as a signal for further downside with $52, $50 and $47.80 acting as key points of interest.

If prices are able to conquer $60, Oil has scope to challenge $65.

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Gov Mbah to Set up Multi-stakeholder Review Committee on Taxation

… As Enugu ranks 5th in IGR after Lagos, Rivers, FCT, and Ogun , reports ORJI ISRAEL

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Governor Peter Mbah of Enugu State and Media personalities
Governor Mbah (middle) flanked by media personalities and Uche Anichukwu, senior special adviser to the Governor on External Affairs

Enugu State governor, Dr. Peter Mbah, has announced plans by his administration to set up a committee to look into allegations of tax increase in the state, explaining that his administration had only widened the tax net without increasing the tax rate.

Mbah, who also explained that the surge in the state’s Internally Generated Revenue, IGR, were due to the introduction of e-payment and technology by his administration to plug revenue leakages, what he described as false narratives on taxation in Enugu State on beneficiaries of the old order of corruption in revenue collection in the state.

The governor stated this while fielding question during a media chat with journalists at Government House, Enugu, during the week.

Recall that Enugu State raked in N180.05 billion, up from N37 billion in 2023, to rank 5th on 2024 IGR table of the 36 states and FCT released by the National Bureau of Statistics about a fortnight ago.

Lagos state ranked 1st with N1.26 trillion, Rivers State placed second with 317.3 billion, FCT ranked 3rd with N282.3 billion, while Ogun State ranked 4th with N194.9 billion.

Diffusing the allegation of high tax burdens by the opposition in the state, Mbah said, “The Taxation thing that you hear is actually misplaced. But I have also committed to setting up a committee that will include the market unions, the civil society organisations, non-governmental organisations, and other relevant groups, so that they can do a review of what is happening in our tax space and come up with a report.

“My belief is that based on what we have done so, we have not increased the tax rate. In fact, even under the laws, we are not able to do that. This is because the issue of personal income tax or company income tax is a matter that is legislated by the National Assembly. That is to say that those rates can only be adjusted by laws made by the National Assembly. Those numbers there were not legislated by the Enugu State House of Assembly but by the federal legislature.

“The only thing we did, which is something we believe that is now being politicised, is that we displaced some entrenched interests because we have plugged the leakages we had in the system before now. Payments are now made directly to the state coffers. We now have e-payments. The era of people going to market with paper and harassing people like drivers and Keke to collect cash payments from them is gone.

“Once you initiate programmes and policies like this, you will be displacing some entrenched intrests and be sure to know that they will fight back. They won’t just go down without fighting.

“This falsehood is also narrated in such a way that if you have not done your own independent investigation, you will not know. You may be tempted to agree that the narrative is true.

“But that notwithstanding, as a leader, we must be listen I believe that we need to probe further to know perhaps there are somethings we are not aware of. This is why I said let us constitute the committee and it will be done pretty soon.”

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Dangote Cement Pays Over N3.3 Trillion in Dividends to Shareholders in 15 Years

…Vows to transform Africa by making it self-sufficient in cement, clinker

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Dangote Cement

Shareholders of Dangote Cement Plc have received over N3.3 trillion in dividends over the last 15 years. Aside from this impressive dividend payout, the shareholders have also significantly benefited from the capital appreciation of the cement stock.

The benefits to the shareholders were disclosed on the floor of the Nigerian Exchange last Wednesday during the “Facts Behind the Figure” presentation, by the Management and Board of Dangote Cement, which was ably led by the new Chairman, Mr. Emmanuel Ikazoboh.

Ikazobor who just assumed the position of the chairman from Aliko Dangote, thanked the shareholders for standing by the company, while also assuring them of consistent good returns on their investments.

He said Dangote Cement remains resolute in transforming Africa by creating sustainable value for all its stakeholders, as it will do all to achieve its vision of making Africa self-sufficient in cement and clinker. 

He stated that: “To our investors, you have my unwavering commitment to safeguarding and growing your investment. To our regulators and market operators, you have my pledge of continued partnership and adherence to governance standards that lead rather than follow. To our employees and partners, you have my gratitude and my assurance that our collective strength will propel us to achievements we haven’t yet imagined.”

Speaking further on the future of the company, the Chief Executive of the company, Arvind Pathak, said: “We aim to expand installed capacity to 66.4Mta by 2030, supporting our long-term vision of making Africa self-sufficient in cement and clinker production. This growth will be driven by a mix of greenfield and brownfield projects.”

He revealed that the company has commissioned the first phase (1.5Mta) of its 3Mta Côte d’Ivoire plant, while construction of the 6Mta integrated Itori Plant continues to advance steadily. In addition, the company, according to him, has announced a $400 million investment to double its production capacity in Ethiopia.

He added that: “Over the past 15 years, DCP has committed more than $8.5 billion in capital investments across Africa, underscoring our long-term confidence in the region’s growth prospects.”

The Group Chairman of the Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX Group), Alhaji (Dr.) Umaru Kwairanga, praised the President/Chief Executive, Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, for his substantial contributions to the Nigerian capital market and private sector development. He said the former Chairman of Dangote Cement, who is also his mentor, has clearly shown that wealth can be created but also transferred to the public through the capital market.

Group Managing Director and Chief Executive of the Nigerian Exchange Group, Temi Popoola, also lauded the new Management and Board of Dangote Cement, noting that with Mr. Ikazoboh as the Chairman, the shareholders will surely be happy.

It would be recalled that the shareholders of the company, in its last Annual General Meeting (AGM) for the year 2024, were full of praise for the Board, Management, and staff of the company after approving a dividend payout of N502.6 billion, which translated to N30 kobo per share. 

The company, in the same vein, also significantly increased its social investments by 469.8 per cent to N3.2 billion. The corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities were in education, healthcare, agriculture, infrastructure, and economic empowerment. 

President of the Association for the Advancement of Rights of Nigerian Shareholders (AARNS), Faruk Umar, said the shareholders were pleased with Aliko Dangote and his team. He said that for the company to still pay a robust dividend despite the obvious economic challenges, which also affected their operations, shows the doggedness and fighting entrepreneurial spirit of the management of the company. 

According to him: “We are happy with this result. The year 2024 was very challenging due to the fluctuations in the foreign exchange market and the company’s expansion programme. But despite all these challenges, the company was still able to pay us a very good dividend and even gave us hope of better returns on our investments in the years to come. This is very commendable, and it is only a company like Dangote Cement that can achieve this laudable feat.”

Chairperson of the Pragmatic Shareholders Association of Nigeria, Bisi Bakare, also commended the company’s consistent dividend payment, noting that the company is moving in the best way of corporate governance. He stated that: “As a shareholder and an active investor of this company, I am very happy and pleased with the performance of our company so far. The earnings are not even up to N30 per share, and for the company to still declare N30 per share dividend speaks volumes of the quality of leadership that we are lucky to have in Dangote Cement. It should also be noted that Dangote Cement is the only manufacturing company that paid the highest dividend in the year under review. So, we are happy and very proud to be part of this company.”

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Expert: Fintech, Financial Inclusion Critical for Sustainable Growth of Nigerian Economy

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Dr. Biodun Adedipe, CEO, B. Adedipe & Associates Limited
Dr. Biodun Adedipe, CEO, B. Adedipe & Associates Limited

A renowned economist, Dr. Biodun Adedipe, the Chief Consultant/CEO, B. Adedipe & Associates Limited, says fintech and financial inclusion are not only contemporary in the Nigerian financial ecosystem, they also hold exciting promises in the transition of the Nigerian economy from jobless growth of over two decades now, to inclusive and sustainable growth that assures shared prosperity for all stakeholders.

Adedipe added that over $2 billion were invested in fintech and startups by over 50 angel investors and venture capitalists in 2024.

Delivering the keynote paper at the 2nd Business Journal Fintech & Financial Inclusion Roundtable 2025 in Lagos, Adedipe described financial inclusion as a critical driver of economic growth and poverty alleviation.

“This makes financial inclusion critical to developing economies, especially those like Nigeria that have been experiencing jobless growth in the last 20 years thereabout and also deep in multi-dimensional poverty. The real challenge resides at the bottom of the pyramid where there is not only poor access to finance but also lack of the basic elements that define good quality of life.”

In its 2023 survey, EFInA reported 64% financial inclusion in Nigeria, driven by marginal growth in the banked population and major gains in non-bank formal adoption.

He listed the opportunities of both fintech and financial inclusion in Nigeria to include youthful and tech savvy population, increasing demand for financial services, unbanked and under-served population, significant informal economy estimated at 54% to 58% of Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and necessity-based entrepreneurship, which is a rampant phenomenon in fragile economies where informal economic activities and low income are pervasive.

Adedipe said the challenges facing the Nigerian economy in terms of fintech and financial inclusion include the ability and capacity of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in promoting and regulating the two concepts effectively.

He listed past and current CBN interventions as the National Financial Inclusion Strategy, National FinTech Strategy, Strategy for Leveraging Agent Networks to Drive Women’s Financial Inclusion and Payment System Vision 2025.

Other key pitfalls to avoid are measuring, identifying and filling gaps, consumer protection and awareness, cost and affordability, technology and infrastructure.

The economist added that both regulators and operators also face significant risks – market, structural, strategic, cybersecurity and operational, as well cultural barriers and gender bias, and credit assessment and KYC.

“If Nigeria (or any developing country for that matter) will maximally benefit from financial inclusion and the deep role that fintech plays in that process, there must be a balance of interests. That balance will be effective only if all stakeholders collaborate (no one seeking to take advantage of the other) and maintain tight focus on the over-arching purpose of inclusive growth and shared prosperity.”

He said for Nigeria to have an inclusive financial system, policies, regulations, products, services, technology and infrastructure must be inclusive by design.

Other factors include integrated system, safe and efficient digital payment/finance ecosystem, economically sustainable and commercially viable market infrastructure, robust data information system and effective regulation.

According to Remita “as Nigeria continues to embrace digital transformation and foster innovation in the financial sector, the role of fintech in empowering SMEs will only grow in significance. With a young and dynamic entrepreneurial ecosystem, the demand for fintech solutions tailored for SMEs is expected to soar, driving further innovation and competition in the market.”

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