GROpinion
[Opinion] How To Pull Nigeria From The Brink
By Atiku Abubakar.
On Monday, April 27, 2020, British oil and gas giant, BP, became the latest in a growing number of energy firms to declare a massive quarterly loss. Their loss was in the region of $4.4 billion dollars. Bear in mind that this was a conglomerate that posted a $2.6 billion profit in the corresponding quarter of 2019.
The challenges that are already engulfing the oil and gas sector will continue to plague that industry for at least the rest of the year, and may reach apocalyptic levels sooner than we expect.
As I write this, there are hundreds of crude oil laden ships, all filled up, with nowhere to berth, and accruing daily charges of an average of $30,000.
We have also seen crude oil prices plunge to record lows, to the extent that some variants of the product have been given out for free, or worse still, producers have paid storage facilities to take their products.
As at today, Nigeria is pricing its very low sulphur sweet crude at $10 per barrel, yet buyers are balking. Our sweet crude is becoming a little bitter.
I had earlier warned that Nigeria needs a Strategic Reserve to store unsold crude. Now, we have so much crude and no one to buy it, nowhere to store it, and little idea what to do with it.
Barely three years ago, I had also alerted that the “crude thinking” promoted by our dependence on crude oil will lead to a rude shock.
“If you are still talking about oil, you are in the past. As far as I am concerned, the era of oil is gone. If you want to believe it, believe it. If you do not want to believe it, you will see it. It is crude thinking to continue to talk and base development projections on crude oil”, I had said at a public event in the nation’s capital.
We must face the fact that reliance on crude oil is failing Nigeria and other mono product economy crude oil exporters. Now is the time for Nigeria and her contemporaries to cure their addiction to sweet crude. For far too long we have grown high on our own supply, to the extent that we have neglected almost every other sector of our economy.
This present rude awakening should be seen as a blessing in disguise – a blessing that compels us to take those drastic actions that will free us from the crude oil trap.
We need to diversify our economy, and yes, it is easier said than done, but that does not mean it is an impossible task.
Prior to Nigeria’s October 1, 1960 independence from Great Britain, not only were we a nation self reliant in food production, but we also exported food to other countries, earning precious foreign exchange in the process. Who can forget the great groundnut pyramids in Northern Nigeria? For example, in 1957, agriculture formed a whopping 86% of our export revenue. By 1977, agricultural exports had dwindled to 6%, and today, the figure is less than 3%.
How did our country go from being a net exporter of agricultural products to a net importer of food products? How did we go from a country that could feed itself to one that desperately depends on foreign imports for survival? The answer to these questions is leadership focus.
During elections, Nigerian politicians spend a significant amount of their campaign time discussing how they will manage the nation’s resources. However, the fundamental difference between a leader and a manager is that while a manager focuses on managing existing resources, a leader sets out a creative vision which the country must follow to chart a course to political and socio-economic greatness.
Certainly, what is abundantly clear is that Nigeria is never going to become an industrialized nation by selling more oil, even if the oil market recovers. The lessons from Venezuela’s current predicament come to mind. If oil and gas could have saved any nation, that nation would be Venezuela. Unfortunately, Venezuela is bankrupt and insolvent.
Saudi Arabia, despite its huge reserves and a highly publicized listing of Saudi Aramco, is feeling the pinch and working rapidly towards its Vision 2030, which requires Saudi Arabia to diversify from its dependence on Oil. Other prudent countries facing the same predicament are doing the same.
Oil economies need to learn a thing or two about economic diversification from the United Arab Emirates. Despite being a young nation, the leadership of the UAE has managed to diversify the economy of this country from an almost complete reliance on oil in the 1970s, to a country where 72% of the GDP comes from the non oil sectors of the economy such as aviation, tourism and services sectors.
In Nigeria, our diversification should embrace agriculture as the primary sector earmarked for development, because agriculture is a low hanging fruit, is key to ensuring food subsistence, and with the recent signing of the African Continental Free Trade Area agreement (AFCTA), which favors Nigeria’s economy greatly, Nigeria can take advantage of this to become an agricultural powerhouse in Africa.
For example, Africa has the lowest intra regional trade amongst the seven continents. Indeed, 68% of Europe’s trade is within the continent. However, Africa does more trade with non African nations than we do amongst each other. Our intra-continental trade is an abysmal 18%. This must change and Nigeria is key to altering this sad state of affairs.
Within the Agricultural sector, the African continent in 2014, earned $2.4 billion from the export of coffee to Europe. That sounds impressive. However, one country alone, Germany, made $3.8 billion from re-exporting Africa’s coffee in 2014. This trend continued into 2015, 2016 and has not changed to date. What is it that Germany does to add value to the coffee, cocoa, and other produce that they buy from Africa that we cannot do in Nigeria? Nigeria can easily become a value-added re-exporter of African coffee to the world.
Ditto for tea, cocoa, wheat, sugar cane, and other cash crops. There are none of these products that I have mentioned that Nigeria cannot either grow in commercial quantities or add value to, in the same way other industrialized economies are doing.
I should know because I am already practicing what I am advocating. I have multiple profitable farms and other businesses in the agricultural value chain.
With about 60% of its land assessed as arable, I truly believe that Nigeria is capable of becoming the food basket of the rest of Africa, and in the process, it can capture a sizable portion of the $48 billion that goes towards food imports in Africa. That money should be circulating within Africa, strengthening our currencies, growing our GDPs, and enriching our people.
I was in Benin Republic recently and I was informed by one of the most successful industrialists in the country that Benin buys its cement from China. Why should a country that shares land borders with Nigeria have to import cement from China 7000 miles away, when Dangote cement is perfectly able, and I am sure willing, to provide the same product at a competitive price?
Is this not what the AFCTA agreement is meant to promote? Why would Nigeria maintain an insane policy of border closures at a time it desperately needs them open to promote trade?
Now is the time for Nigeria to make those hard decisions it has postponed for far too long otherwise the alternative is an apocalyptic scenario we would rather not entertain.
We must, as nation, begin to invest our resources wisely in order to maximize dividends. We must liberalize our land tenure system to make it possible and easy for some of the 27 million unemployed Nigerians to become farmers, even as sharecroppers.
Last year, Ethiopia mobilized its 100 million strong population to plant 350 million trees in 12 hours (a world record). Nigeria can similarly mobilize its population of twice that number to plant billions of cash crops through the planting season. It is possible. I have repeatedly charged my farm associates to sow seeds and they have done so successfully.
When the huge opportunities of agriculture are combined with a rejuvenated manufacturing and MSMEs sectors, then a new era of sustainability and prosperity beckons for Africa.
Nigeria is at the lowest point we have ever been as a nation. We have over indulged on seemingly cheap loans and have quadrupled our foreign debt in just four years. Taking more of such loans will just sink our country deeper and deeper into a quagmire. What is certain is that we can not continue with things the way they are now, except we want to ensure an implosion of our dearly beloved nation.
We must cut our coat, not according to our size, but according to our cloth. Our Presidential Air Fleet of almost 10 planes should go. Our jumbo budgets for our legislature must go. The planned $100 million renovation of our Parliament must be cancelled. We cannot be funding non necessities with debt and not expect our economy to collapse. Our civil servants must come to the realization that Nigeria cannot sustain its size and profligacy. The same cost saving measures must be adopted by the states and councils government.
From henceforth, our energies, resources and focus, must be on how we can diversify our economy, not on how we can increase our expenditure.
GROpinion
Insecurity In Zamfara – Hold Lawal Accountable, Not Matawalle
Writes Nasiru Aliyu, Media Advisor to the Hon. Minister
The recent protest organized by the All Progressives Congress (APC) Akida Forum raises significant questions about political motivations and accountability.
Led by Musa Mahmoud the APC AKIDA group staged a demonstration at the Abuja headquarters of the Department of State Services (DSS), demanding an investigation into the Minister of State for Defence, Dr. Bello Mohammed Matawalle, amid allegations linking him to banditry in the state.
The protest, predominantly featuring hired women and youths from Abuja, was framed as a response to escalating security concerns in Zamfara.
However, the underlying motives appear to be rooted in political rivalry rather than genuine concern for public safety.
The leader of the APC Akida Forum Tijjani Ramallan claims that Governor Dauda Lawal has accused Matawalle of collusion with bandits, suggesting that such ties have perpetuated the insecurity plaguing the region.
A critical point overlooked by Mahmoud and his supporters is that Matawalle is no longer the executive governor of Zamfara.
The current governor, Dauda Lawal, now holds the title of the state’s chief security officer, and therefore, he bears the primary responsibility for addressing the security crisis.
Instead of engaging in a blame game, Lawal should focus on implementing effective strategies to combat the rampant insecurity and provide the dividends of democracy to the people of Zamfara state.
The animosity towards Matawalle seems to stem from his previous role as the Director General of Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s campaign in the Northwest, where he played a pivotal role in securing significant electoral support for the current president.
This success has reportedly fueled envy among some political figures like Tijjani Ramallan, including Musa Mahmoud and others who may feel threatened by Matawalle’s rising profile.
It is noteworthy that allegations against Matawalle have been investigated by the National Security Adviser’s office, which found no evidence to support claims of his involvement in banditry.
This investigation contributed to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s decision to retain Matawalle in his ministerial position, where he has reportedly managed security matters in the Northwest with professionalism.
Adding to the complexity of this situation, a Kano High Court recently issued a restraining order against Governor Lawal and others, prohibiting them from continuing their smear campaign against Matawalle. This legal development underscores the court’s recognition of the potential harm caused by unfounded allegations and the need for accountability in political discourse and the state government has found an ally in APC AKIDA led by Tijjani Ramallan.
Despite the court’s intervention, Governor Lawal continues to leverage media platforms to tarnish Matawalle’s reputation, linking him to banditry and corruption without substantiating evidence.
Such tactics appear to be desperate attempts to undermine Matawalle’s credibility, likely motivated by Lawal’s desire to solidify his political standing.
The ongoing campaign against Matawalle by Lawal and his associates raises serious concerns about the integrity of political discourse in Zamfara.
It is imperative for the public to remain vigilant against misleading narratives and to recognize the broader implications of such political maneuvers.
The Kano High Court’s ruling serves as a reminder of the importance of due process and the need for responsible governance.
In conclusion, the focus of accountability in Zamfara should shift towards Governor Dauda Lawal, who now holds the reins of security in the state.
Instead of casting blame on former officials, Lawal must take ownership of the security situation and work towards tangible solutions that prioritize the safety and well-being of the people of Zamfara.
Furthermore, since Matawalle operational visit to sokoto led to the elimination of Bandit leader Halilu Sububu who is alleged to have died with the treasure of the sponsors of banditry in zamfara state, the pain propelled them to further embark on campaign of calumny.
The recent activities of some individuals with one Davids Iyida attempting to sabotage the MoMo Payment Service Bank project intended to benefit, especially Enugu Ezike people, have raised significant concern and outrage within the community.
Such actions aimed at undermining a project with immense potential to uplift and empower the people of Enugu Ezike can only be described as malicious.
The MoMo PSB project is designed to bring financial services closer to the people of Enugu Ezike, facilitating easier access to banking and financial transactions.
This project is expected to create jobs, stimulate local businesses, and provide a much-needed boost to the local economy. In a region where such opportunities are rare, the MoMo PSB project represents a beacon of hope for many residents.
It is particularly baffling and disheartening to witness a member of the community collaborate with outsiders to hinder the progress of their own people.
The reasons behind such alliances remain unclear, but the impact of these actions is evident and deeply troubling. Working to obstruct the project is not only delaying progress but also actively working against the welfare and advancement of Enugu Ezike.
The efforts to destroy Kingsley Ifeanyi Adonu’s good intention, despite all the positive contributions he has made, are nothing short of wickedness.
Adonu, a visionary entrepreneur and the leading MTN Partner in the South East, has dedicated significant resources and efforts to bring the MoMo Payment Service Bank project to fruition.
His vision for the community includes economic growth, financial inclusion, and overall development. Attacking his vision is an attack on the progress and future of Enugu Ezike.
The question that lingers in the minds of many is: Why sabotaging our own benefits? In a time when unity and collective effort are paramount for the community’s advancement, such actions of sabotage are counterproductive and harmful. The community needs all hands on deck to drive development and improve the quality of life for its residents. Internal conflicts and malicious actions only serve to set back these efforts.
Despite the challenges and the malicious attempts to derail the project, it is important to reaffirm that S Mobile Group vision for establishing a MoMo Payment Service Bank in Enugu Ezike will prevail.
The community stands behind this vision, recognizing the immense benefits it promises to bring. Efforts to hinder progress will ultimately fail in the face of collective determination and support.
The actions of these ungrateful individuals, aimed at sabotaging the MoMo PSB project, are grave disservice to the community of Enugu Ezike.
In a time when progress and development are desperately needed, such malicious activities are deeply regrettable.
However, the vision and determination of Kingsley Ifeanyi Adonu and the community’s support ensure that the project will succeed, bringing much-needed growth and prosperity to Enugu Ezike.
Let it be known that no amount of sabotage can dim the light of progress and unity.
Nwodo, a public commentator writes from Enugu State
Columnists
Cybersecurity in 2024: Towards Ever Greater Sophistication of Tactics
Writer: CHESTER WISNIEWSKI, Director Global Field CTO, Sophos
With 2024 fast approaching, what are the results for 2023 and what are the developments in the threat landscape for this new year?
The year 2023 was marked by persistence in the tactics of cybercriminals, with the predominance of ransomware, the exploitation of vulnerabilities, theft of credentials and even attacks targeting the supply chain. The common point in all his attacks is their formidable effectiveness.
It is therefore essential to ask what trends will persist in 2024 and what strategies businesses should adopt to deal with these future cyber threats.
Between persistent trends and evolving cybercrime tactics
In 2024, the threat landscape is not expected to change radically, particularly with regard to attack typologies and criminal tactics and procedures.
Criminal groups still primarily focus their attention on financial gains and ransomware remains their weapon of choice. These cybercriminals tend to take the easy way out by opportunistically attacking unpatched security vulnerabilities.
The recent Citrix Bleed attack demonstrated the agility of cybercriminals when it comes to quickly and effectively exploiting these new vulnerabilities.
However, once patches are applied to these vulnerabilities, cyberattackers tend to revert to more common strategies of stealing credentials or, failing that, cookies or session cookies, which, while slightly slower, constitute always a proven means that allows them to penetrate within a system.
In 2024, however, we should expect increased sophistication in defense evasion tactics, particularly due to the generalization of certain technologies such as multi-factor authentication. These attacks will combine malicious proxy servers, social engineering techniques and repeated authentication request attacks or “fatigue attacks”.
AI and regulations will continue to shape cybersecurity
In 2024, the development of AI will have a positive impact on the efficiency of IT teams and security teams by enabling them to strengthen defenses and work more efficiently, including through the processing of vast volumes of data in the aim of detecting anomalies. It should make it possible to respond more quickly in the event of an incident.
Indeed, analysis of attacks in 2023 showed a shortening of the time between network penetration and the triggering of a final attack – using malware or ransomware. The need for rapid detection and response tools to prevent costly incidents is therefore essential.
Finally, regulatory developments could have a major influence on measures taken against ransomware. The need to take more substantial measures could push some states to penalize the payment of ransoms, which would represent a brake on malicious actors and change the perspective of companies in the event of an attack.
Other stricter legislation, such as the implementation of the European NIS2 Directive, is also expected to force companies to take additional measures, particularly regarding their abilities to collect data sets.
To protect themselves against increasingly rapid, effective and costly attacks, companies will need to strengthen their defenses by equipping themselves with tools that allow them to detect and respond to incidents more quickly.
The worsening cybersecurity talent shortage does not appear to be as serious as some studies claim. On the contrary, companies have implemented more lax hiring criteria and more open-mindedness in the recruitment process.
From this perspective, to guarantee their survival in a constantly evolving threat landscape, companies have every interest in establishing partnerships with cybersecurity experts whose main mission is to make the hyperconnected world safer, to advise and assist them. in setting up effective defenses.
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