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Analysis: Investors in cautious mode as U.S.-China trade war set to kick off

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Hussein Sayed, Chief Market Strategist at FXTM, comments on the looming U.S. tariffs.

Global equity and foreign exchange markets were relatively quiet on Wednesday as the U.S. financial markets were closed in observance of Independence Day. However, the looming U.S. tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese imports and the expected retaliation from China are keeping investors on edge.

The decision by the U.S. administration is expected to be taken on Friday and China is expected to retaliate immediately.

These tariffs will not take investors by surprise as they have had sufficient time to price them in; given that these measures are considered only a small portion of the U.S.- China trade’s value, the impact on growth and corporate earnings will be minimal.

The critical question markets need an answer on is – where is this trade war heading towards?  President Donald Trump had threatened to impose a further $200 billion in tariffs on Chinese imports, which China will respond to in equal measure.

If such measures are implemented, it will certainly lead to a meltdown in global equities, emerging markets currencies and debt.

With the current environment of uncertainty, expect risk-averse behavior to continue in the coming weeks.

Away from the political trade tensions, traders will be looking closely at the Fed minutes scheduled for release later today. In his last press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell was optimistic about the U.S.’s economic performance.

He expected gradual increases in the federal funds to resume, given the low unemployment levels and accelerating inflation. However, investors are keen to know whether the imposition of trade tariffs and similar reactions from trading partners will threaten his outlook.

On a different note, the dollar has appreciated 6.8% since its February lows. Such strength is expected to have a negative impact on price levels and exports.

Meanwhile, the yield curve has continued to flatten over the past several months, increasing the risk of a recession.

These factors have been ignored by the Fed so far, so today we will get to know whether any of these risks will hinder the Fed’s policy path, and whether the dollar will move accordingly.

On the data front, the U.S. ADP employment report is expected to show that 190 thousand jobs have been added to the economy, while the ISM non-manufacturing PMI for June is anticipated to retreat slightly to 58.3, down from 58.6 in the previous month.

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Finance

EFCC Chairman Tasks Nigerian Youths Against Crimes And Fraudulent Acts

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The Chairman of Economic Finance Crime Commission (EFCC), Ola Olukoyede, has stressed the need for Nigerian Youth to see themselves as agents of positive change that have a lot to contribute to the socioeconomic development of the Nation.

Speaking at the 2nd edition of a Leadership Trainings Programme in Abuja, Olukoyede, who was represented by the Head Enlightenment and Re-orientation unit, (EFCC), Aisha Mohammed, said the commission’s dream is to see the youth contribute meaningfully to the society, emphasizing on the need to work together in bringing positive change to society.

The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission Boss declared the readiness of his agency to work with all Stakeholders, including the youth towards changing the narrative and reposition the country to greater exploit.
Also speaking, the representative of the Executive Secretary of Tertiary Education Trust Fund (TETFUND), Sonny Echono, appealed to the youths is to eschew social vices that could deter their full potential in life.

Other speakers at the event, including the Chairperson, Zero Tolerance for Social Immoralities Initiative (ZEITI) Africa, Rasak Jeje called on all stakeholders to join hands in collective pursuit of empowering new generation of leaders to curb the rising tides of social Vice among Nigerian youths.

The Chairperson, Zero Tolerance for Social Immoralities Initiative (ZEITI) Africa, Rasak Jeje made the call while addressing journalists at the 2nd edition of it Leadership Trainings Programme in Abuja on Thursday.
He said the training was aimed to intimate students leaders with knowledge and insights that will help them drive positive change and become exemplary leaders in their respective spheres.

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Finance

AISA Has Refunded The Fees Paid By Yahaya Bello To EFCC

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The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) says the American International School Abuja (AISA) has refunded the fees paid by the immediate past governor of Kogi state, Yahaya Bello, for his children attending the school.

In response to a letter addressed to the Lagos zonal commander of the EFCC, the school said $845,852 was paid in tuition “since the 7th of September 2021 to date”.

AISA said the sum to be refunded is $760,910 because it had deducted educational services already rendered.

“Please forward to us an official written request, with the authentic banking details of the EFCC, for the refund of the above-mentioned funds as previously indicated as part of your investigation into the alleged money laundering activities by the Bello family.

Since the 7th September 2021 to date, $845,852.84 (Eight Hundred and Forty-Five Thousand, Eight Hundred and Fifty Two US Dollars and eighty four cents) in tuition and other fees has been deposited into our Bank account.

We have calculated the net amount to be transferred and refunded to the State, after deducting the educational services rendered as $760,910.84. (Seven Hundred and Sixty Thousand, Nine Hundred and Ten US Dollars and Eighty Four cents).

No further additional fees are expected in respect of tuition as the students’ fees have now been settled until they graduate from ASIA.”

In a chat with The Cable, the spokesperson of the EFCC, Dele Oyewale, confirmed that the school has refunded the money.

‘’The money has been paid into public account,” Dele Oyewale was quoted as saying

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Finance

Godwin Emefiele Disobeyed Direction Of Law With Intent To Harm The Public, He Printed ₦684.5M Using ₦18.9B Says EFCC in fresh charge

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The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission has filed a fresh charge at the High Court of the Federal Capital Territory against the embattled former governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Godwin Emefiele.

EFCC in the charge accused Emefiele of approving the printing of N684,590,000 at the rate of N18.96 billion.

EFCC also alleged that Emefiele broke the law with intent to harm the public during his implementation of the naira swap policy of the administration of former President Muhammadu Buhari.

The anti-graft agency also accused Emefiele of unlawfully approving the withdrawal of N124.8 billion from the Consolidated Revenue Fund of the Federation.

EFCC’s top prosecutor, Rotimi Oyedepo, SAN revealed that Emefiele will be arraigned on a new four-count charge before Justice Hamza Muazu

Counts one to four of the charge, read,

“STATEMENT OF OFFENCE: Public Servant disobeying direction of law with intent to cause injury to the public contrary to and punishable under Section 123 of the Penal Code Law, Cap. 89 Laws of the Federation, 1990.

“PARTICULARS OF THE OFFENCE: That you GODWIN IFEANYI EMEFIELE between the 19th day of October 2022 and 5th March 2023 in Abuja, knowingly disobeyed the direction of Section 19 of the CBN Act, 2007, by approving the printing of N375,520,000.00 pieces of colour swapped N1, 000, at the total cost of N11,052, 068,062 without the recommendation of the Board of Central Bank and the strict approval of the President, Federal Republic of Nigeria which conduct of yours caused injury to the public and you thereby committed an offence.”

This and three other charges were stated against him. They read;

“COUNT 2: “That you, GODWIN IFEANYI EMEFIELE, between the 19th of October 2022 and 5th March 2023 in Abuja, knowingly disobeyed the direction of Section 19 of the Central Bank of Nigeria Act, 2007, by approving the printing of 172,000,000 pieces of colour swapped N500 (Five Hundred Naira) Notes, at the total cost of N4, 471,066,040 without the recommendation of the Board of Central Bank and the strict approval of the President, Federal Republic of Nigeria which conduct of yours caused injury to the public and you thereby committed an offence.

“COUNT 3: “That you GODWIN IFEANYI EMEFIELE between the 19th day of October 2022 and 5th March 2023 in Abuja, knowingly disobeyed the direction of Section 19 of the CBN Act, 2007, by approving the printing of 137,070,000 pieces of colour swapped N200 (Two Hundred Naira) Note, at the total cost of N3, 441, 005, 280 without the recommendation of the Board of Central Bank and the strict approval of the President, Federal Republic of Nigeria which conduct of yours caused injury to the public and you thereby committed an offence.”

“COUNT 4: “That you, GODWIN IFEANYI EMEFIELE, on or about the 7th day of October 2020, in Abuja, within the jurisdiction of this Honorable Court, knowingly disobeyed the direction of Section 80 of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, 1999 (As Amended), by approving the withdrawal of the total sum of N124, 860, 227, 865.16 from the Consolidated Revenue Fund of the Federation in a manner not prescribed by the National Assembly, which conduct of yours caused injury to the public and you thereby committed an offence.”

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