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Is Nigeria exposed to the Emerging Market chaos?

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Written by Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst at FXTM

It has certainly been an explosively volatile trading quarter thus far as investors juggled with global trade tensions, Dollar strength and chaos across emerging markets.

The simmering trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies fuelled global risk aversion while a brutal sell-off in the EM space rattled investor confidence.

With fears mounting over a full-blown trade war triggering global instability and negatively impacting growth, emerging markets especially remain under extreme pressure. Fears remain elevated over the turmoil in Turkey and Argentina spreading like a virus across developing and developed nations. With the South African economy already descending into a recession, will Nigeria be the next economy to take a hit?

Throughout the third quarter of 2018, Nigeria has kept afloat with GDP expanding 1.5% during Q2 and inflation easing 11.14%.

Although the nation’s external reserve dropped to the lowest since March to $45 billion, it still remains at manageable levels. With oil prices somewhat supported by geopolitics and the Naira displaying a degree of stability against the Dollar, the outlook looks somewhat encouraging.

However, external risks in the form of an appreciating Dollar, prospects of higher interest rates and trade tensions could cripple Nigeria’s fragile recovery.

Contagion fears stemming from the EM selloff may force investors to scale back on investing in emerging markets, including Nigeria, while capital outflows could complicate the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)’s effort to defend the Naira. Although expectations were initially elevated over the CBN cutting interest rates in the second half of 2018 to stimulate growth, the current global and domestic economic landscape could force the central bank to maintain the status quo.

A CBN rate cut will widen the interest rate differential with the Federal Reserve, ultimately accelerating capital outflows and threating price stability. With inflation also expected to rebound thanks to election spending, some even feel the CBN may end up hiking rates instead.

Referring to price stability, the Naira, like most other emerging market currencies, remains impacted by external forces. Although the local currency has barely budged against the Dollar, this is based on the CBN’s repeated intervention in the FX markets.

While this strategy could ensure the local currency remains supported in the short term, Nigeria’s external reserves are already feeling the pressure. On the plus side, with Nigeria achieving a current account surplus, the Naira’s punishment may not be as severe as those currencies belonging to markets with a high account deficit.

Although Nigeria’s economic prospects remain tied to Oil prices, the upcoming presidential elections could play a leading role in determining if the nation is able to conclude this year on a firm footing.

The increased spending ahead of the February elections will most likely be a welcome development for economic growth. If Oil prices remain at current levels and support both government revenue and consumption, this may stimulate the recovery further.

The largest economy in Africa still has the ability to shock the world stage this year. While it is widely known that the cure to Nigeria’s illness – Oil dependency – can be found in economic diversification, the correct steps must be taken while the conditions are still accommodative.

As the third trading quarter of 2018 slowly comes to an end, global sentiment is likely to remain heavily influenced by U.S.-China trade tensions and the emerging market rout. With the U.S. Federal Reserve expected to raise interest rates this month, the CBN’s effort to defend the Naira may be obstructed.

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Finance

Banks To Now Charge 0.5% Cybersecurity Levy As Directed By CBN; Netizens React

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The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has directed deposit money banks in the country to start charging 0.5% cybersecurity levy on some transactions done by their customers.

The apex bank gave the directive in a circular dated May 6, 2024 and sent to all commercial, merchant, non-interest and payment service banks as well as mobile money operators and payment service providers.

“Following the enactment of the Cybercrime (Prohibition, Prevention, etc) (amendment) Act 2024 and pursuant to the provision of Section 44 (2) (a) of the Act, ‘a levy of 0.5% (0.005) equivalent to a half percent of all electronic transactions value by the business specified in the Second Schedule of the Act’, is to be remitted to the National Cybersecurity Fund (NCF), which shall be administered by the Office of the National Security Adviser (ONSA),” the circular partly read.

The Cybersecurity Levy implementation notice

The apex bank said that the implementation of the levy would start two weeks from the date of the circular.

“The levy shall be applied at the point of electronic transfer origination, then deducted and remitted by the financial institution. The deducted amount shall be reflected in the customer’s account with the narration, ‘Cybersecurity Levy’. Deductions shall commence within two weeks from the date of this circular for all financial institutions and the monthly remittance of the levies collected in bulk to the NCF account domiciled at the CBN by the fifth business day of every subsequent month,” the circular said

The apex bank added that this new levy will not be applied on transactions such as loan disbursements and repayments, salary payments, intra-account transfers within the same bank or between different banks for the same customer, intra-bank transfers between customers of the same bank.

Also exempted from the levy were inter-branch transfers within a bank, cheque clearing and settlements, ⁠Letters of Credits, ⁠Banks’ recapitalisation-related funding only bulk funds movement from collection accounts, savings and deposits including transactions involving long-term investments, among others.

This current implementation however is not sitting well with some netizens as they reacted to the new development.

Here were some of their reactions from X.

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Finance

EFCC Chairman Tasks Nigerian Youths Against Crimes And Fraudulent Acts

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The Chairman of Economic Finance Crime Commission (EFCC), Ola Olukoyede, has stressed the need for Nigerian Youth to see themselves as agents of positive change that have a lot to contribute to the socioeconomic development of the Nation.

Speaking at the 2nd edition of a Leadership Trainings Programme in Abuja, Olukoyede, who was represented by the Head Enlightenment and Re-orientation unit, (EFCC), Aisha Mohammed, said the commission’s dream is to see the youth contribute meaningfully to the society, emphasizing on the need to work together in bringing positive change to society.

The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission Boss declared the readiness of his agency to work with all Stakeholders, including the youth towards changing the narrative and reposition the country to greater exploit.
Also speaking, the representative of the Executive Secretary of Tertiary Education Trust Fund (TETFUND), Sonny Echono, appealed to the youths is to eschew social vices that could deter their full potential in life.

Other speakers at the event, including the Chairperson, Zero Tolerance for Social Immoralities Initiative (ZEITI) Africa, Rasak Jeje called on all stakeholders to join hands in collective pursuit of empowering new generation of leaders to curb the rising tides of social Vice among Nigerian youths.

The Chairperson, Zero Tolerance for Social Immoralities Initiative (ZEITI) Africa, Rasak Jeje made the call while addressing journalists at the 2nd edition of it Leadership Trainings Programme in Abuja on Thursday.
He said the training was aimed to intimate students leaders with knowledge and insights that will help them drive positive change and become exemplary leaders in their respective spheres.

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Finance

AISA Has Refunded The Fees Paid By Yahaya Bello To EFCC

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The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) says the American International School Abuja (AISA) has refunded the fees paid by the immediate past governor of Kogi state, Yahaya Bello, for his children attending the school.

In response to a letter addressed to the Lagos zonal commander of the EFCC, the school said $845,852 was paid in tuition “since the 7th of September 2021 to date”.

AISA said the sum to be refunded is $760,910 because it had deducted educational services already rendered.

“Please forward to us an official written request, with the authentic banking details of the EFCC, for the refund of the above-mentioned funds as previously indicated as part of your investigation into the alleged money laundering activities by the Bello family.

Since the 7th September 2021 to date, $845,852.84 (Eight Hundred and Forty-Five Thousand, Eight Hundred and Fifty Two US Dollars and eighty four cents) in tuition and other fees has been deposited into our Bank account.

We have calculated the net amount to be transferred and refunded to the State, after deducting the educational services rendered as $760,910.84. (Seven Hundred and Sixty Thousand, Nine Hundred and Ten US Dollars and Eighty Four cents).

No further additional fees are expected in respect of tuition as the students’ fees have now been settled until they graduate from ASIA.”

In a chat with The Cable, the spokesperson of the EFCC, Dele Oyewale, confirmed that the school has refunded the money.

‘’The money has been paid into public account,” Dele Oyewale was quoted as saying

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