GRBusiness
FXTM Analysis – Investors on high alert as trade tensions intensify
Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst at FXTM, comments on investors’ mood as US – China trade tensions intensify.
Donald Trump’s latest threat to impose fresh tariffs on China has roiled financial markets and left investors on high alert.
In a shocking development, Trump yesterday warned of his intention to impose tariffs on an additional $200 billion worth of Chinese goods.
This undesirable move is likely to worsen US-China trade relations and fuel concerns of a potential global trade war.
The ongoing friction between the two nations has clearly kept market players on edge, with global stocks sliding amid the growing caution.
With the escalating ‘tit-for-tat’ trade war seen as a major risk to global stability, investors may offload riskier assets for safe-haven investments.
More pain ahead for emerging markets?
Emerging market currencies have been treated without mercy by a broadly stronger Dollar.
The intensifying trade tensions between the United States and China simply added to market jitters, consequently weighing heavily on emerging markets.
While the prospect of higher US interest rates is likely to stimulate fears of capital outflows from emerging markets, global trade concerns present a major risk.
Intensifying trade tensions may trigger fears of increasing global protectionism negatively impacting growth in developing nations – ultimately spelling more trouble for EM currencies and stocks.
South African Rand crumbles
The South African Rand has tumbled to its lowest levels in over six months as escalating trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies eroded appetite for riskier currencies.
An appreciating Dollar simply compounded to the Rand’s woes with price punching above 13.90 as of writing.
It must be kept in mind that the Rand was not alone, as other major emerging market currencies were under attack from a broadly stronger Dollar. The Rand has scope to weaken further if the Dollar continues to strengthen and global trade fears dent risk sentiment.
Oil slips on eroding risk appetite
A lack of appetite for risk amid the US-China trade dispute has resulted in Oil prices depreciating today.
Market expectations over OPEC and Russia easing supply curbs to counterbalance falling output from Venezuela as well as production outages from Iran have eroded appetite for the commodity.
Although a hike in production output seems to be priced in, Oil remains at risk of depreciating further if Friday’s OPEC meeting in Vienna ends in an impasse. It must be kept in mind that Iran, Venezuela and Iraq are expected to veto any decision made by Saudi Arabia and Russia to raise production levels.
Any disagreements or infighting between cartel members during the talks may trigger fears over the future of OPEC’s production cut deal.
WTI Crude is currently bearish on the daily charts with prices breaking below $65.00 this afternoon. Sustained weakness below this region could encourage bears to target $64.35 and $64.00, respectively.
Commodity spotlight – Gold
Gold has descended into the abyss despite intensifying trade tensions rattling financial markets and leaving investors on edge. The driver behind Gold’s depreciation remains an appreciating US Dollar.
With the Dollar likely to find ample support amongst the bullish sentiment towards the US economy and heightened expectations of higher US interest rates, Gold could be poised for further punishment.
While the argument for the precious metal to potentially rebound may be based around trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty, an appreciating Dollar could continue obstructing any upside gains.
Focusing on the technical picture, Gold is under pressure on the weekly timeframe. Sustained weakness below $1,280 level could be an early indication that bears are back in the game.
Previous support at this level could transform into a dynamic resistance that opens a path towards $1,264.
Energy
Boost for Nigeria’s Oil Production, As NNPC’s Utapate Crude Grade Hits Global Oil Market
…OML 13 Asset Eyes 80,000 bpd by End of 2025
In a major boost for Nigeria’s crude oil production, revenue generation and economic growth efforts, the NNPC Ltd has officially unveiled its latest crude oil grade, the Utapate crude oil blend, before the international crude oil market.
It would be recalled that in July, 2024, NNPC Ltd and its partner, the Sterling Oil Exploration & Energy Production Company (SEEPCO) Ltd introduced the Utapate crude oil blend, following the lifting of first cargo of 950,000 barrels which headed for Spain.
During a ceremony held at the Argus European Crude Conference taking place in London, United Kingdom, on Wednesday, the Managing Director, NNPC E & P Limited (NEPL), Mr. Nicholas Foucart described the introduction of the Utapate crude oil blend into the market as a significant milestone for Nigeria’s crude oil export to the global energy market.
“Since we started producing the Utapate Field in May 2024, we have rapidly ramped up production to 40,000 barrels per day (bpd) with minimum downtime. So far, we have exported five cargoes, largely to Spain and the East Coast of the United States; while two more additional cargoes have been secured for November and December 2024, representing a significant boost to Nigeria’s crude oil export to the global market,” Foucart told a packed audience of European crude oil marketers.
He added that since its introduction into the global market, the Utapate crude oil blend has enjoyed a positive response from the international crude oil market, due to its highly attractive qualities.
Foucart said the Oil Mining Lease (OML) 13, fully operated by NEPL and Natural Oilfield Services Ltd (NOSL), a subsidiary of SEEPCO Ltd, boasts a huge reserves of 330million barrels of crude oil reserves, 45 million barrels of condensate and 3.5 tcf of gas.
“We have a number of ongoing projects to increase our production from the current 40,000bopd to 50,000bopd by January 2025 and 60,000bopd to 65,000bopd by June 2025. Essentially, we are targeting opportunities to increase production to 80,000bopd by the end of 2025,” Foucart added.
He said the Utapate crude oil terminal is sustainable, affordable and fully compliant with the rigorous environmental regulations and sustainability principles especially those aimed at reducing carbon emissions and other ecological effects.
Also speaking, the Managing Director of NNPC Trading Ltd (NTL), Mr. Lawal Sade said the pricing structure of the Utapate crude oil blend is similar to that of Amenam crude as it is a light sweet crude which is highly sought after by refiners across the world due to its low sulphur content, efficient yield of high-value products, API gravity and other similarities.
He said in bringing the new crude oil blend to the global market, NNPC Ltd wanted to optimise value for both its producers and counterparties across the globe.
He added to ensure predictability and sustainability of supply, the NNPC Trading intends to run a term contract on the Utapate crude oil blend cargoes, principally targeting off-takers from the European and the US East Coast refineries.
Produced from the Utapate field in OML 13 in Akwa Ibom State in Nigeria, the Utapate crude oil blend is similar to the Nembe crude oil grade. It has a low sulphur content of 0.0655% and low carbon footprint due to flare gas elimination, fitting perfectly into the required specification of major buyers in Europe.
The NNPC E&P Ltd and NOSL partnership is also committed to operating in a manner that is safe, environmentally responsible, and beneficial to the local communities.
The Utapate field development plan, executed between 2013-2019 and approved in October, included converting wells and facilities from swamp/marine to land-based operations.
The plan involved a multi-rig drilling campaign for 40 wells and the development of significant infrastructure such as production facilities, storage tank, a subsea pipeline and an offshore loading platform to facilitate crude oil evacuation and loading.
The entry of the Utapate crude oil blend into the market is coming barely a year after the NNPC Ltd announced the launch of Nembe crude oil, produced by the NNPC/Aiteo operated Oil Mining Lease (OML) 29 Joint Venture (JV).
This remarkable achievement signals the commitment of the NNPC Ltd to increasing Nigeria’s crude oil production and growing its reserves through the development of new assets.
Energy
NNPC Ltd Set to Supply 100mmscf/d Gas to Dangote Refinery
…10-year Deal to Boost Local Production, Revamp Industrial Growth, reports Ikenna Oluka
The NNPC Gas Marketing Limited (NGML), a subsidiary of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited, has successfully executed a Gas Sale and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) with Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals FZE.
The agreement, signed by the Managing Director, NGML, Barr. Justin Ezeala and the President/CEO of the Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote on Tuesday at the Corporate Head Office of Dangote in Falomo, Lagos State, outlines the supply of natural gas for power generation and feedstock at the Dangote Refinery, in Ibeju-Lekki, Lagos State.
This major milestone is in line with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s policy of utilizing Nigeria’s abundant gas resources towards revamping the nation’s industrial growth and kickstarting its economic prosperity.
This development, which sees a huge investment of this nature penned with zero capital expenditure (CAPEX) outlay, has been described by many as unprecedented in the history of NGML or any gas Local Distribution Company (LDC) in the country.
Under the terms of the agreement, NGML will supply 100 million standard cubic feet per day (MMSCF/D), 50MMSCF/D being firm supply and the rest 50MMSCF/D interruptible natural gas supply to the refinery for an initial period of 10 years, with options for renewal and growth.
This collaboration is a significant step toward ensuring the operational success of the Dangote Refinery and enhancing Nigeria’s domestic gas utilization.
NNPC Ltd, through NGML, its gas marketing subsidiary, continues to lead efforts in promoting the use of domestic gas to support industries and businesses nationwide.
The agreement represents a milestone for both NNPC Ltd and Dangote Refinery, aligning with their shared commitment to boosting local production and providing vital products for the benefit of all Nigerians.
It is also a further proof of NGML’s unwavering commitment to business excellence and fulfilling NNPC Ltd’s core mandate of ensuring Nigeria’s energy security through the execution of strategic gas projects across the country.
Transport
WIMAfrica and SIFAX Group Partner to Champion Gender Equality in Maritime Industry
Women in Maritime Africa (WIMAfrica), in a significant step forward for female representation in the Maritime field, held a strategic meeting with SIFAX Group at the SIFAX headquarters on November 12th, 2023.
The two organizations aim to foster mentorship, sponsorship, and skills development programs that will empower women to pursue and excel in maritime careers, where female representation remains below 1%. Key figures from WIMAfrica, including Continental Vice President Mrs. Carolyn Ufere and Nigeria’s President Mrs. Rollens Macfoy, emphasized the need for corporate partnerships to expand access to training and professional networks for women. SIFAX’s Coordinating Director, Mrs. Wunmi Eniola-Jegede, expressed the Group’s commitment to gender inclusivity and highlighted the presence of women in leadership roles across its various sectors.
In closing, WIMAfrica extended an invitation for SIFAX Group to support its upcoming conference in Lagos, themed “New Economy and Moving Forward for the Next Generation,” which seeks to inspire young women to explore maritime career paths like engineering and marine security. The collaboration between WIMAfrica and SIFAX Group marks a crucial move toward an inclusive future in Africa’s maritime industry.
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