Energy
EXPERT’s VIEW: Oil looking oversold heading into latest OPEC meeting
Jameel Ahmad, Global Head of Currency Strategy & Market Research at FXTM, comments on the markets’ mood in the run-up to the OPEC meeting.
There is a feeling of change within the strategy of how OPEC operates. This uncertainty has played a leading role behind the price of Oil coming under relentless pressure over the past couple of weeks, in anticipation of the cartel’s meeting in Vienna this week.
Concerns that OPEC and its non-member allies will increase production for the first time since late 2016 is a major contributor behind the sharp selling of Oil in recent weeks.
Back in late 2016, OPEC famously announced production cuts in a desperate measure to reduce the volume of oversupply in the market, the major catalyst behind Oil falling from above $110 to below $30 between mid-2014 and early 2016.
Speculation that OPEC could now reposition its strategy in the opposite direction has encouraged WTI Oil to decline nearly $10 in less than a month.
Anticipation of a drastic shift in OPEC’s mindset is quite puzzling to most when you consider that the previous theme heading into meetings was how much production output could possibly be cut from the market.
This focus has suddenly been replaced with anxiety over how much supply could potentially be added back into the market.
This suggests that there has been a rebalancing after years of an overwhelming oversupply of the commodity; equally, it could also point to underlying concerns that have been evident for some time, that some members no longer wish to comply with OPEC’s production cut deal.
Either way there is a shift in play, with previous global demand-side concerns being substituted to specific supply-side actions where the market is now expecting an increase in production.
The recent price action in the Oil markets suggests that investors are confident that OPEC will announce an increase in production output, but I do not expect that it will be to the degree that articulates WTI falling $10 in less than a month.
The commodity is at risk to being oversold as the OPEC get-together commences and could be in line for a rebound.
A hike in production output has already been priced in, but I am not ruling out a modest rebound over the upcoming trading sessions as the exact increase in production volume remains to be seen.
There is a risk that traders are expecting a little bit too much heading into the meeting and could reshuffle their positions upon speculation that OPEC will not increase production to the amount currently being priced in by the market between 500,000 to 1 million barrels a day.
After all, it did take a very long time to persuade OPEC committee members to agree to the historic production cuts all the way back in 2016, and it will not be a straightforward task to encourage a reverse in action.
If the expected rise in production is less than 300,000 barrels a day, we can’t rule out the possibility that there could be a rebound in prices.
Although both Saudi Arabia and Russia are thought to be actively encouraging an increase in production behind the scenes, this will likely be opposed by Iran, Venezuela and Iraq.
While none of these three nations has anywhere near the amount of influence over OPEC as either Saudi Arabia or Russia, there will be power in numbers if other producers in the cartel reject the proposal to increase supply.
This potential scenario does provide some light that traders would be mistaken to consider the OPEC outcome as a “done deal”.
One other factor that investors will need to carefully monitor is whether President Trump is now attempting to exert some influence over OPEC.
The United States President has used social media to attack OPEC, and has in the past repeatedly called out the cartel for “artificially” inflating the value of Oil.
If the market does attempt to appreciate on the OPEC meeting’s outcome, it could encourage Trump to lash out at OPEC once again.
Energy
AVEVA is providing data management support for renewable natural gas projects
Reporter: Godwin Ezeh
Key Highlights
● AVEVA’s industrial information infrastructure has been selected by Archaea Energy to provide key data management support
● AVEVA’s industrial software to optimize performance across Archaea’s RNG plants
AVEVA, a global leader in industrial software driving digital transformation and sustainability, has been selected by Archaea Energy, the largest renewable natural gas (RNG) producer in the US, to build a comprehensive operations data management infrastructure.
Using AVEVA’s software, Archaea Energy can collect, enrich and visualize its real-time operations data, enabling performance analysis across its growing network of plants.
Using AVEVA PI Data Infrastructure, a hybrid solution with cloud data services, the plants will be able to share data to highlight operational opportunities and optimize efficiency.
Caspar Herzberg, CEO, AVEVA, stated,
“Through this collaboration and the use of AVEVA PI Data Infrastructure, Archaea’s growing network of plants will have streamlined operations with accurate performance analysis throughout the expansion. AVEVA’s CONNECT software platform leverages industrial intelligence from a central location, making it easier to deploy additional digital solutions in the future.”
“As the largest RNG producer in the United States, we are dedicated to delivering reliable, clean energy,” said Starlee Sykes, chief executive officer of Archaea Energy. “This relationship will allow us to optimize operations and offer detailed performance analysis as we continue to expand across the country.”
…OML 13 Asset Eyes 80,000 bpd by End of 2025
In a major boost for Nigeria’s crude oil production, revenue generation and economic growth efforts, the NNPC Ltd has officially unveiled its latest crude oil grade, the Utapate crude oil blend, before the international crude oil market.
It would be recalled that in July, 2024, NNPC Ltd and its partner, the Sterling Oil Exploration & Energy Production Company (SEEPCO) Ltd introduced the Utapate crude oil blend, following the lifting of first cargo of 950,000 barrels which headed for Spain.
During a ceremony held at the Argus European Crude Conference taking place in London, United Kingdom, on Wednesday, the Managing Director, NNPC E & P Limited (NEPL), Mr. Nicholas Foucart described the introduction of the Utapate crude oil blend into the market as a significant milestone for Nigeria’s crude oil export to the global energy market.
“Since we started producing the Utapate Field in May 2024, we have rapidly ramped up production to 40,000 barrels per day (bpd) with minimum downtime. So far, we have exported five cargoes, largely to Spain and the East Coast of the United States; while two more additional cargoes have been secured for November and December 2024, representing a significant boost to Nigeria’s crude oil export to the global market,” Foucart told a packed audience of European crude oil marketers.
He added that since its introduction into the global market, the Utapate crude oil blend has enjoyed a positive response from the international crude oil market, due to its highly attractive qualities.
Foucart said the Oil Mining Lease (OML) 13, fully operated by NEPL and Natural Oilfield Services Ltd (NOSL), a subsidiary of SEEPCO Ltd, boasts a huge reserves of 330million barrels of crude oil reserves, 45 million barrels of condensate and 3.5 tcf of gas.
“We have a number of ongoing projects to increase our production from the current 40,000bopd to 50,000bopd by January 2025 and 60,000bopd to 65,000bopd by June 2025. Essentially, we are targeting opportunities to increase production to 80,000bopd by the end of 2025,” Foucart added.
He said the Utapate crude oil terminal is sustainable, affordable and fully compliant with the rigorous environmental regulations and sustainability principles especially those aimed at reducing carbon emissions and other ecological effects.
Also speaking, the Managing Director of NNPC Trading Ltd (NTL), Mr. Lawal Sade said the pricing structure of the Utapate crude oil blend is similar to that of Amenam crude as it is a light sweet crude which is highly sought after by refiners across the world due to its low sulphur content, efficient yield of high-value products, API gravity and other similarities.
He said in bringing the new crude oil blend to the global market, NNPC Ltd wanted to optimise value for both its producers and counterparties across the globe.
He added to ensure predictability and sustainability of supply, the NNPC Trading intends to run a term contract on the Utapate crude oil blend cargoes, principally targeting off-takers from the European and the US East Coast refineries.
Produced from the Utapate field in OML 13 in Akwa Ibom State in Nigeria, the Utapate crude oil blend is similar to the Nembe crude oil grade. It has a low sulphur content of 0.0655% and low carbon footprint due to flare gas elimination, fitting perfectly into the required specification of major buyers in Europe.
The NNPC E&P Ltd and NOSL partnership is also committed to operating in a manner that is safe, environmentally responsible, and beneficial to the local communities.
The Utapate field development plan, executed between 2013-2019 and approved in October, included converting wells and facilities from swamp/marine to land-based operations.
The plan involved a multi-rig drilling campaign for 40 wells and the development of significant infrastructure such as production facilities, storage tank, a subsea pipeline and an offshore loading platform to facilitate crude oil evacuation and loading.
The entry of the Utapate crude oil blend into the market is coming barely a year after the NNPC Ltd announced the launch of Nembe crude oil, produced by the NNPC/Aiteo operated Oil Mining Lease (OML) 29 Joint Venture (JV).
This remarkable achievement signals the commitment of the NNPC Ltd to increasing Nigeria’s crude oil production and growing its reserves through the development of new assets.
Energy
NNPC Ltd Set to Supply 100mmscf/d Gas to Dangote Refinery
…10-year Deal to Boost Local Production, Revamp Industrial Growth, reports Ikenna Oluka
The NNPC Gas Marketing Limited (NGML), a subsidiary of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited, has successfully executed a Gas Sale and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) with Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals FZE.
The agreement, signed by the Managing Director, NGML, Barr. Justin Ezeala and the President/CEO of the Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote on Tuesday at the Corporate Head Office of Dangote in Falomo, Lagos State, outlines the supply of natural gas for power generation and feedstock at the Dangote Refinery, in Ibeju-Lekki, Lagos State.
This major milestone is in line with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s policy of utilizing Nigeria’s abundant gas resources towards revamping the nation’s industrial growth and kickstarting its economic prosperity.
This development, which sees a huge investment of this nature penned with zero capital expenditure (CAPEX) outlay, has been described by many as unprecedented in the history of NGML or any gas Local Distribution Company (LDC) in the country.
Under the terms of the agreement, NGML will supply 100 million standard cubic feet per day (MMSCF/D), 50MMSCF/D being firm supply and the rest 50MMSCF/D interruptible natural gas supply to the refinery for an initial period of 10 years, with options for renewal and growth.
This collaboration is a significant step toward ensuring the operational success of the Dangote Refinery and enhancing Nigeria’s domestic gas utilization.
NNPC Ltd, through NGML, its gas marketing subsidiary, continues to lead efforts in promoting the use of domestic gas to support industries and businesses nationwide.
The agreement represents a milestone for both NNPC Ltd and Dangote Refinery, aligning with their shared commitment to boosting local production and providing vital products for the benefit of all Nigerians.
It is also a further proof of NGML’s unwavering commitment to business excellence and fulfilling NNPC Ltd’s core mandate of ensuring Nigeria’s energy security through the execution of strategic gas projects across the country.
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