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EXPERT’s VIEW: Oil looking oversold heading into latest OPEC meeting

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Jameel Ahmad, Global Head of Currency Strategy & Market Research at FXTM, comments on the markets’ mood in the run-up to the OPEC meeting.

There is a feeling of change within the strategy of how OPEC operates. This uncertainty has played a leading role behind the price of Oil coming under relentless pressure over the past couple of weeks, in anticipation of the cartel’s meeting in Vienna this week.

Concerns that OPEC and its non-member allies will increase production for the first time since late 2016 is a major contributor behind the sharp selling of Oil in recent weeks.

Back in late 2016, OPEC famously announced production cuts in a desperate measure to reduce the volume of oversupply in the market, the major catalyst behind Oil falling from above $110 to below $30 between mid-2014 and early 2016.

Speculation that OPEC could now reposition its strategy in the opposite direction has encouraged WTI Oil to decline nearly $10 in less than a month.

Anticipation of a drastic shift in OPEC’s mindset is quite puzzling to most when you consider that the previous theme heading into meetings was how much production output could possibly be cut from the market.

This focus has suddenly been replaced with anxiety over how much supply could potentially be added back into the market.

This suggests that there has been a rebalancing after years of an overwhelming oversupply of the commodity; equally, it could also point to underlying concerns that have been evident for some time, that some members no longer wish to comply with OPEC’s production cut deal.

Either way there is a shift in play, with previous global demand-side concerns being substituted to specific supply-side actions where the market is now expecting an increase in production.

The recent price action in the Oil markets suggests that investors are confident that OPEC will announce an increase in production output, but I do not expect that it will be to the degree that articulates WTI falling $10 in less than a month.

The commodity is at risk to being oversold as the OPEC get-together commences and could be in line for a rebound.

A hike in production output has already been priced in, but I am not ruling out a modest rebound over the upcoming trading sessions as the exact increase in production volume remains to be seen.

There is a risk that traders are expecting a little bit too much heading into the meeting and could reshuffle their positions upon speculation that OPEC will not increase production to the amount currently being priced in by the market between 500,000 to 1 million barrels a day.

After all, it did take a very long time to persuade OPEC committee members to agree to the historic production cuts all the way back in 2016, and it will not be a straightforward task to encourage a reverse in action.

If the expected rise in production is less than 300,000 barrels a day, we can’t rule out the possibility that there could be a rebound in prices.

Although both Saudi Arabia and Russia are thought to be actively encouraging an increase in production behind the scenes, this will likely be opposed by Iran, Venezuela and Iraq.

While none of these three nations has anywhere near the amount of influence over OPEC as either Saudi Arabia or Russia, there will be power in numbers if other producers in the cartel reject the proposal to increase supply.

This potential scenario does provide some light that traders would be mistaken to consider the OPEC outcome as a “done deal”.

One other factor that investors will need to carefully monitor is whether President Trump is now attempting to exert some influence over OPEC.

The United States President has used social media to attack OPEC, and has in the past repeatedly called out the cartel for “artificially” inflating the value of Oil.

If the market does attempt to appreciate on the OPEC meeting’s outcome, it could encourage Trump to lash out at OPEC once again.

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Energy

AVEVA Appoints Joanna Mainguy as New Sustainability Accelerator Director

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Joanna AVEVA
Joanna Mainguy, Sustainability Accelerator Director at AVEVA
  • Joanna Mainguy will steer strategies for sustainability innovation across AVEVA’s portfolio and partner ecosystem, furthering ESG targets for 2025 and beyond

AVEVA, a global leader in industrial software, driving digital transformation and sustainability, today announced the appointment of Joanna Mainguy as Sustainability Accelerator Director.

Joanna’s appointment testifies to AVEVA’s dedication to strengthening the company’s sustainability impact in line with advancing global climate commitments. 

As Sustainability Accelerator Director, Joanna Mainguy will focus exclusively on sustainability solutions and strategies to accelerate innovation that will help AVEVA’s customers to achieve their net-zero targets.

She will look at how AVEVA leverages current market and customer analysis to inform its in-house development team, advise on new customer collaborations and on how AVEVA should grow its partnership network and M&A pipeline to reflect its sustainability priorities.

Joanna will lead the implementation of a sustainability solutions plan tailored to meet the most pressing needs of AVEVA’s industrial customers on low-carbon transition, circularity and resilience, via an integrated product, marketing and sales approach. She will work closely with AVEVA’s portfolio, business area and R&D leads to continue to develop new sustainability capabilities and drive collaboration on go-to-market initiatives that support industry with contributing to an accelerated energy transition and shift to a circular economy.

Joanna was formerly Industry Director, EMEA, for Energy & Sustainability at Microsoft, where she led strategic engagements with major energy providers and supported the energy transition with digital solutions. She has worked across the entire energy value chain and has more than 15 years of experience in process industries and the energy sector, including work for major system integrators, software and energy companies.

Lisa Wee, Global Head of Sustainability, AVEVA, said: “We are excited to welcome Joanna to AVEVA. She will bolster our mission to enable faster uptake of existing sustainability solutions across the industrial landscape, while in parallel we continue to invest in product capabilities and partnerships that will push out the frontiers of sustainability innovation for industry. At AVEVA we look to lead by example on sustainability and we achieved a 93% reduction in Scope 1 and 2 emissions last year. We aspire to help our customers better leverage digital solutions to realize their own ambitious sustainability targets early, and Joanna brings a wealth of experience to help support this.”

Commenting on her appointment, Joanna Mainguy, Sustainability Accelerator Director, AVEVA, said: “I am delighted to join AVEVA at such a pivotal time in its sustainability innovation and growth trajectory. I look forward to working with AVEVA teams and customers to continue to grow the sustainability benefits that can be achieved with AVEVA software. I am also keen to work closely with our partners to drive further positive change at scale, since we know addressing the climate crisis will continue to require expanded collaboration”.

AVEVA actively embeds sustainability into its core product strategy with specific capabilities in its software portfolio.

AVEVA’s software enables organizations to connect and contextualize key sustainability data with artificial intelligence and human insight, enhancing their agility, resilience and sustainability in order to help drive responsible use of the world’s resources.

AVEVA’s 2023 Sustainability Progress Report reveals significant progress across all three pillars of the company’s sustainability framework, encompassing product strategy, operations and culture. 

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Climate Change: NNPC Ltd/Total Energies JV Achieves Zero Gas Flare

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In pursuit of meeting the targets of 20% (unconditional) and 47% (conditional) greenhouse gas emission reduction as contained in the Nationally Determined Contribution under the Paris Accord signed by the President Bola Ahmed Tinubu administration, the NNPC Ltd/TotalEnergies Joint Venture has achieved zero routine gas flare in all its assets.

According to a statement signed by Olufemi Soneye, Chief Corporate Communications Officer, NNPC Ltd., this feat was announced on Thursday during an inspection tour of OML 100 in South-eastern Niger Delta, off Port Harcourt, by a joint NNPC Ltd and TotalEnergies Team to ascertain the success of the OML Flare Reduction Project launched in December 2023.  

The NNPC Ltd/TotalEnergies Joint Venture, which is the concession holder of four leases, had hitherto achieved zero routine flaring across OML 99 (2006), OML 102 (2014), and OML 58 (2016), leaving OML 100 as the only lease with routine flaring going on.

The significance of this achievement is that the last routine flare volume of about 12MMscf/d (twelve million standard cubic feet per day) of gas has now been eliminated giving rise to a greenhouse gas emissions reduction of about 341KtCO₂e/yr.

The achievement is an outcome of a programme introduced by the NNPC Ltd to galvanize action towards achieving the zero routine flare by 2030 across its portfolio of assets.

It is also a testament to NNPC Ltd’s prioritization of sustainability anchored on the ‘first R’ of its 5R Strategy (Reduce, Replace, Renew, Re-plant, Repurpose), as it strives to reduce its carbon footprint.

Work is ongoing across all other assets within NNPC Ltd’s Upstream Directorate to ensure that all assets achieve zero routine flaring by 2030 or earlier.

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Energy

NNPC Celebrates 14,000bpd Production from Akpo West Field

By SANDRA ANI

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In line with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s directive to the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd) to optimise production from the nation’s oil and gas assets, the Company has announced the successful commencement of oil production from the Akpo West Field.

The milestone, which is the result of meticulous planning, strategic collaboration, and unwavering dedication from all stakeholders involved in the project, will add 14,000 barrels per day condensate to the nation’s production. This will be followed up by the production of about 4million cubic meters of gas per day by 2028.

The development of Akpo West which is on Petroleum Mining Lease (PML) 2 (formerly OML 130) leverages the existing Akpo Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) facility via a subsea tie-back to keep costs low and minimize greenhouse gas emissions.

The milestone was enabled by the strategic leadership of the Group Chief Executive Officer (GCEO), Mr. Mele Kyari, and the Upstream Directorate of the NNPC Ltd whose support played no small role in propelling the operators to actualise the short- and mid-term hydrocarbon production goal of the President Tinubu administration.

Located 135 kilometres offshore, Akpo West is one of the discoveries on PML 2 with proximity to the Akpo main which started up in 2009 and produced 124,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2023.

PML 2 is operated by TotalEnergies with a 24% interest, in partnership with CNOOC (45%), Sapetro (15%), Prime 130 (16%), and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Ltd as the concessionaire of the Production Sharing Contract (PSC).

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