The Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) decision to leave key rates unchanged at 14% confirms how external and domestic factors have placed the central bank in a difficult position, the Research Analyst at FXTM, Lukman Otunuga, said, according to a report by TechEconomy.ng.

Otunuga who was commentING on the outcome of CBN MPC Meeting, said that higher US interests have accelerated capital outflows and led to a drop in external reserves while global trade tensions continue to weigh on sentiment.

Meanwhile, in a CBN Communiqué No. 120 of the Sep 24-25, 2018 MPC Meeting, the CBN Governor, Mr. Godwin Emefiele disclosed that the Committee appraised the macroeconomic environment and noted that at its July meeting, modest stability had been achieved in key indicators, including inflation, exchange rate and external reserves.

In particular, relative stability had returned to the foreign exchange market, buoyed by a robust level of external reserves with inflation trending downwards for the 18^th consecutive month.

“These gains so far achieved,” he said, “appear to be under threat of reversal, following new data which provides evidence of weakening fundamentals. The Committee identified rising inflation and pressure on external reserves created by capital flow reversal as the current challenges to growth. It noted that inflationary pressures have started rebuilding and capital flow reversals have intensified as shown by the bearish trend in the equities market even though the exchange rate remains very stable.

“The Committee was concerned that the exit from recession may be under threat as the economy slowed to 1.95 and 1.50 per cent in Q1 and Q2 2018, respectively. The Committee noted that the slowdown emanated from the oil sector, with strong linkages to employment and growth in other key sectors of the economy.

“In this regard, the Committee urged government to take advantage of the current rising oil prices to rebuild fiscal buffers, strengthen government finances in the medium term and reverse the current trend of decline in output growth. The MPC also called on the fiscal authorities to intensify the implementation of the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) to stimulate economic activity, bridge the output gap and create employment.

“The Committee noted that disruptions to the food supply chain in major food producing states due to the combined effects of poor infrastructure, flooding and the on-going security challenges resulted in a rise in food prices, contributing to the uptick in headline inflation. The Committee was, however, optimistic that as harvests progress in the coming months, pressure on food prices would gradually recede, while growth enhancing measures would over the medium term have some moderating impact on food prices.

“The MPC expressed concern over the potential impact of liquidity injections from election related spending and increase in FAAC distributions which is rising in tandem with increase in oil receipts.

“The Committee was concerned with the rising level of non-performing loans in the banking system, traced mainly to the oil sector and urged the Bank to closely monitor and address the situation. It also expressed concern over the weak intermediation by Deposit Money Banks and its adverse impact on credit expansion and investment growth by the private sector.

“In view of the above developments, the MPC noted that the economy was still confronted with growth headwinds and inflationary pressures. It reiterated the need for synergy between monetary and fiscal policies as a viable option for macroeconomic stability. The Committee, therefore, identified two likely policy options as tightening or maintaining the status quo ante.

“Tightening would tame inflationary pressures, stem the reversal in portfolio capital, improve the external reserves position and maintain stability in the foreign exchange market. Conversely, the MPC felt that raising rates would further weaken growth as credit would become more expensive, NPLs would increase further, leading to a deceleration in output. In the Committee’s opinion, the upward adjustment would not only signal the Bank’s commitment to price stability but also its desire to maintain positive real interest rates.

“A decision to hold all policy parameters constant would sustain gradual improvements in output growth, maintain the current monetary policy stance and await a clearer understanding of the quantum and timing of liquidity injections into the economy before deciding on possible adjustments.

“The MPC, however, called on the government to fast track the implementation of the 2018 budget to help jumpstart the process of sustainable economic recovery, and to facilitate passage of the Petroleum Industry Bill in order to increase the contribution of the sector to overall GDP”, the Communiqué available to TechEconomy.ng reads.

The CBN Governor said that in light of the above, the MPC decided by a vote of seven (7) members to retain the MPR at 14 per cent.

“However, three (3) out of these seven (7) members voted to raise the Cash Reserve Requirement (CRR) by 150 basis points, an indication that left to them, we should have tightened. The other three (3) members voted to tighten by raising the MPR by 25 basis points.

In summary, the MPC voted to:

• Retain the MPR at 14 per cent;
• Retain the asymmetric corridor of +200/-500 basis points around the MPR;
• Retain the CRR at 22.5 per cent; and
• Retain the Liquidity Ratio at 30 per cent.

In lieu of the above, Otunuga said, “Rising consumer prices amid pre-election spending remain another headache for the CBN, while political uncertainties add to the equation of components complicating any efforts to cut interest rates. With crude oil price volatility from US-China trade tensions presenting a significant threat to Nigeria’s economic recovery, the CBN could maintain the status quo for the rest of 2018.

“While a rate cut was initially seen as a strategy to support economic growth in Nigeria, such a move may end up widening the divergence in monetary policy between the Fed and CBN – ultimately accelerating capital outflows”.