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COMMENT: CBN rate cut on the horizon as inflation slows to 12-month low

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BY: FXTM Senior Research Analyst, Lukman Otunuga

The latest inflation figures from the Nigerian economy are certainly good news for the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the economy as a whole.

Inflation in Africa’s largest economy dropped to its lowest in a year at 11.1% last month as food prices and services reduced in July compared to June. Further signs of inflation cooling during the third and fourth quarter of 2019 should present the CBN an opportunity to re-join the global easing bandwagon – ultimately supporting domestic economic growth. While the exact timings of the rate cut remain uncertain, it now remains a matter or when rather than if. Lower rates in Nigeria have the potential to stimulate consumption which accounts for roughly 80% of GDP.

Markets search for stability as we head into the weekend

It has been a rollercoaster trading week defined by heightened trade uncertainty, yield curve inversions and global recession fears.

The “risk off, risk on” pendulum swung back and forth as investors grappled with conflicting signals on the US-China trade front, disappointing economic data from China and Germany and depressed oil prices.

Some semblance of stability is returning to Asian markets on Friday after China hinted at more fiscal support for its economy. While European markets are set to open cautiously higher as investors closely monitor the Treasury yields, gains may be limited by the general unease and uncertainty which is shrouding financial markets.

All eyes remain on the yield curve…

History was made this week after the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond fell below 2% for the first time ever.

Market players offloaded riskier assets like a hot potato and rushed to perceived safe havens like bonds and Gold as trade tensions and global growth fears promoted risk aversion. Although treasury yields are climbing away from record lows on Friday as some tranquillity returns to markets, the movements in the bond markets are poised to remain on investors radars in the week ahead.

Dollar maintains grip on iron throne

King Dollar has appreciated against almost every single G10 currency this week excluding the British Pound and Australian Dollar.

The Dollar’s positive performance suggests that it is still viewed as a destination of safety amid trade disputes, geopolitical tensions and global growth concerns. Appetite towards the Greenback was sweetened further on Thursday after US retail sales jumped by 0.7% in July, which eased concerns about the health of the US economy. I expect the Dollar Index to push higher based on price action, as the economic calendar for the United States is void of Tier 1 economic releases on Friday.

In regards to the technical picture, the Dollar Index is bullish on the daily charts. The intraday breakout above 98.20 should encourage a move higher towards 98.40.

Commodity spotlight – Gold

Gold prices depreciated slightly on Friday morning but were headed for a third consecutive weekly gain thanks to global recession fears, uncertainty over US-China trade developments and falling US bond yields.

Gold bulls remain firmly in the driver’s seat and are set to switch into higher gear as geopolitical risk factors and lower interest rates across the globe send investors stampeding towards the precious metal. Focusing on the technical picture, Gold is heavily bullish on the weekly charts as there have been consistently higher highs and higher lows.

A weekly close above $1500 should open the doors towards $1535 and $1550, respectively.

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Flutterwave Activates American Express Payments for its Merchants in Nigeria

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Olugbenga GB Agboola, CEO Flutterwave
Olugbenga GB Agboola, CEO Flutterwave

Flutterwave, Africa’s leading payments technology company, has announced today that its online merchants in Nigeria can now accept American Express payments.

American Express Card Members – with consumer, business, or corporate cards – will be able to make payments directly to e-commerce businesses using Flutterwave in Nigeria.

This service will also be available to Flutterwave merchants in other countries including Tanzania, Rwanda, Ghana and Uganda in the near future.

This collaboration facilitates online transactions and offers a range of benefits for both merchants and online shoppers:

  • Flutterwave merchants can attract business from a new customer base of American Express Card Members in Africa and around the world. This includes consumers with personal cards and spenders with business or corporate products. Terms and conditions apply.
  • For shoppers, there is more choice when it comes to being able to select their preferred method of payment when transacting with Flutterwave merchants. This collaboration strengthens the American Express global network and increases the number of locations across Africa that can be used by American Express Card Members to purchase a range of different goods and services.

Speaking on the development, Olugbenga ‘GB’ Agboola, Founder and CEO, Flutterwave, said:“At Flutterwave, we’re always looking for ways to connect the world to Africa through payments. This is one of our initiatives to ensure that more people across the world can pay using Flutterwave in Africa. We understand the value of providing shoppers with payment methods that work for them, as well as helping businesses to expand their customer bases. This collaboration also provides more options of where to shop and what to buy to American Express card holders across the globe. By offering American Express as a method of payment, Flutterwave will make the payment process faster and simpler for American Express card holders, and improve the experience for e-commerce businesses using Flutterwave, helping them to start locally and sell globally.”

On his part, Briana Wilsey, Vice President and General Manager of Global Network Services EMEA at American Express, said: “American Express continues to expand in Africa to enable greater payment choice for businesses and consumers. Through the agreement with Flutterwave, a trusted payment provider, we are giving e-commerce merchants in Nigeria the opportunity to reach American Express Card Members around the world. The collaboration is a win-win because it also increases the number of places where our Card Members can use their Cards in Nigeria.”

Flutterwave and American Express share similar visions; to enable businesses across the world to expand their operations in Africa and other emerging markets through a platform that enables local and cross-border transactions via one Application Programming Interface (API).

Flutterwave has processed over 630M transactions in excess of USD $31B, serves global and African customers like Uber, Air Peace, Bamboo, PiggyVest, and across various industries. On the other hand, American Express is a globally integrated payments company, providing customers with access to products, insights and experiences that enrich lives and build business success.

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NNPC Releases 2023 Audited Financial Statement

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NNPC Report
L-R: Permanent Secretary, Ministry of Petroleum Resources, Ambassador Nicholas Agbo Ella; Chairman, NNPC Ltd Board, Chief Pius Akinyelure and the CFO NNPC Ltd, Mr. Umar Ajiya during the Release of NNPC Ltd’s 2023 Audited Financial Statement (AFS) at the NNPC Towers in Abuja, on Monday.

…Posts N3.3trn Net Profit, Declares N2.1trn Dividend

…Targets 2mbpd Crude Oil Production by December 2024

The NNPC Limited has released its 2023 Audited Financial Statement (AFS), declaring a net profit of N3.297 trillion at the close of the financial year which ended in December 2023, an increase of over N700billion (28%) when compared to the 2022 profit of N2.548trillion.

In a world press conference held at the NNPC Towers in Abuja on Monday, the Chief Financial Officer of the Company, Mr. Umar Ajiya said the release of the AFS is a testament to the Company’s commitment to transparency and accountability.

“Our fiscal performance reflects both strategic foresight and operational resilience. Despite inherent challenges of our operational and economic environment, we have improved the productivity and the financial performance of this great company,” Ajiya stated.

Ajiya added that posting such impressive returns demonstrates NNPC Ltd’s commitment to sustaining profitability and supporting the attainment of national energy security as stipulated by the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021, and by extension, as expected by the Company’s shareholders.

Explaining that the NNPC Ltd will announce Initial Public offer (IPO) once the shareholders and Board make a decision, Ajiya also debunked claims on subsidy payment, saying the Company was only taking care of the shortfall on PMS importation between it and the Federation.

Speaking earlier at the press conference, the Chairman of the NNPC Ltd Board, Chief Pius Akinyelure said that the excellent performance came as the fruit of the PIA 2021, the commitment of the Board, Management and staff of the company.

Akinyelure added that the shareholders of the company have since approved a final dividend of N2.1trn in line with PIA 2021 provisions.

In her remarks at the briefing, the Executive Vice President, Upstream, Mrs. Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan said with improvements witnessed as a result of the renewed vigour in the war against crude oil theft and pipeline vandalism, NNPC Ltd is targeting 2million barrels per day crude oil production by the the end of the year.

On the current fuel queues in parts of Lagos and the FCT, the Executive Vice President, Downstream, Mr. Dapo Segun appealed for understanding from Nigerians, saying that the the Company is working with relevant stakeholders to address the distribution, evacuation and logistics challenges.

It would be recalled that in 2021, NNPC declared profit in its operations for the first time.  From a loss position of N803 billion in 2018, it reduced the loss further down to N1.7 billion in 2019.

However, in 2020, it posted its ‘first ever’ profit of N287 billion, then in 2021, it recorded a N674.1 billion profit and in 2022, the profit grew to N2.548, an unprecedented achievement in its financial performance. The N3.297 trillion profit declared for 2023 is the highest since the Company’s inception, 46 years ago.

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Banks To Now Charge 0.5% Cybersecurity Levy As Directed By CBN; Netizens React

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The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has directed deposit money banks in the country to start charging 0.5% cybersecurity levy on some transactions done by their customers.

The apex bank gave the directive in a circular dated May 6, 2024 and sent to all commercial, merchant, non-interest and payment service banks as well as mobile money operators and payment service providers.

“Following the enactment of the Cybercrime (Prohibition, Prevention, etc) (amendment) Act 2024 and pursuant to the provision of Section 44 (2) (a) of the Act, ‘a levy of 0.5% (0.005) equivalent to a half percent of all electronic transactions value by the business specified in the Second Schedule of the Act’, is to be remitted to the National Cybersecurity Fund (NCF), which shall be administered by the Office of the National Security Adviser (ONSA),” the circular partly read.

The Cybersecurity Levy implementation notice

The apex bank said that the implementation of the levy would start two weeks from the date of the circular.

“The levy shall be applied at the point of electronic transfer origination, then deducted and remitted by the financial institution. The deducted amount shall be reflected in the customer’s account with the narration, ‘Cybersecurity Levy’. Deductions shall commence within two weeks from the date of this circular for all financial institutions and the monthly remittance of the levies collected in bulk to the NCF account domiciled at the CBN by the fifth business day of every subsequent month,” the circular said

The apex bank added that this new levy will not be applied on transactions such as loan disbursements and repayments, salary payments, intra-account transfers within the same bank or between different banks for the same customer, intra-bank transfers between customers of the same bank.

Also exempted from the levy were inter-branch transfers within a bank, cheque clearing and settlements, ⁠Letters of Credits, ⁠Banks’ recapitalisation-related funding only bulk funds movement from collection accounts, savings and deposits including transactions involving long-term investments, among others.

This current implementation however is not sitting well with some netizens as they reacted to the new development.

Here were some of their reactions from X.

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