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COMMENT: CBN rate cut on the horizon as inflation slows to 12-month low

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BY: FXTM Senior Research Analyst, Lukman Otunuga

The latest inflation figures from the Nigerian economy are certainly good news for the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the economy as a whole.

Inflation in Africa’s largest economy dropped to its lowest in a year at 11.1% last month as food prices and services reduced in July compared to June. Further signs of inflation cooling during the third and fourth quarter of 2019 should present the CBN an opportunity to re-join the global easing bandwagon – ultimately supporting domestic economic growth. While the exact timings of the rate cut remain uncertain, it now remains a matter or when rather than if. Lower rates in Nigeria have the potential to stimulate consumption which accounts for roughly 80% of GDP.

Markets search for stability as we head into the weekend

It has been a rollercoaster trading week defined by heightened trade uncertainty, yield curve inversions and global recession fears.

The “risk off, risk on” pendulum swung back and forth as investors grappled with conflicting signals on the US-China trade front, disappointing economic data from China and Germany and depressed oil prices.

Some semblance of stability is returning to Asian markets on Friday after China hinted at more fiscal support for its economy. While European markets are set to open cautiously higher as investors closely monitor the Treasury yields, gains may be limited by the general unease and uncertainty which is shrouding financial markets.

All eyes remain on the yield curve…

History was made this week after the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond fell below 2% for the first time ever.

Market players offloaded riskier assets like a hot potato and rushed to perceived safe havens like bonds and Gold as trade tensions and global growth fears promoted risk aversion. Although treasury yields are climbing away from record lows on Friday as some tranquillity returns to markets, the movements in the bond markets are poised to remain on investors radars in the week ahead.

Dollar maintains grip on iron throne

King Dollar has appreciated against almost every single G10 currency this week excluding the British Pound and Australian Dollar.

The Dollar’s positive performance suggests that it is still viewed as a destination of safety amid trade disputes, geopolitical tensions and global growth concerns. Appetite towards the Greenback was sweetened further on Thursday after US retail sales jumped by 0.7% in July, which eased concerns about the health of the US economy. I expect the Dollar Index to push higher based on price action, as the economic calendar for the United States is void of Tier 1 economic releases on Friday.

In regards to the technical picture, the Dollar Index is bullish on the daily charts. The intraday breakout above 98.20 should encourage a move higher towards 98.40.

Commodity spotlight – Gold

Gold prices depreciated slightly on Friday morning but were headed for a third consecutive weekly gain thanks to global recession fears, uncertainty over US-China trade developments and falling US bond yields.

Gold bulls remain firmly in the driver’s seat and are set to switch into higher gear as geopolitical risk factors and lower interest rates across the globe send investors stampeding towards the precious metal. Focusing on the technical picture, Gold is heavily bullish on the weekly charts as there have been consistently higher highs and higher lows.

A weekly close above $1500 should open the doors towards $1535 and $1550, respectively.

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Tinubu Launches Personal Income Tax Calculator to Improve Compliance, Fairness

By ORJI ISRAEL

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Bola Ahmed Tinubu
President Bola Tinubu

President Bola Tinubu has launched a Personal Income Tax Calculator to help Nigerians work out their tax obligations under the new tax law.

The tool is expected to make compliance easier and improve transparency in the system.

In a post on his X page, the president said the calculator shows how the recent reforms protect low-income earners while ensuring fairness.

“A fair tax system must never punish poverty or weigh down the most vulnerable. With the new tax laws I recently signed, taking effect from January 2026, we have lifted this burden and created a path of equity, fairness, and true redistribution in our economy,” Tinubu said.

Some months ago, he signed four major tax bills into law to bring Nigeria’s scattered tax system under one framework. These include the Nigeria Tax Administration Law, which sets out a uniform process for tax administration across federal, state, and local governments; the Nigeria Revenue Service (Establishment) Bill, which replaces the current Federal Inland Revenue Service Act with a stronger, more independent revenue agency; and the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) and Joint Revenue Board (Establishment) Bill, which creates a formal structure for cooperation between revenue bodies at all levels.

The introduction of the tax calculator, together with these reforms, is expected to reduce confusion for both individuals and businesses, while also making it easier for them to meet their obligations and contribute to national growth.

Tinubu added that the reforms are part of building renewed hope for the economy and urged Nigerians to trust in the country’s future for themselves and their families.

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FIRS e-Invoicing Hits 20% Adoption in Two Weeks

Reporter: SANDRA ANI

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VAT controversy | FIRS e-Invoicing

The Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) says that no fewer than 1,000 companies, representing 20% of total eligible firms, have begun integrating its newly launched electronic invoicing  (e-invoicing) system less than two weeks after it went live.

The FIRS e-invoicing platform, which went live on August 1, 2025, after a successful pilot phase that began in November 2024, was designed to modernise Nigeria’s tax administration, curb evasion, and enhance transparency in revenue generation. It also provides the FIRS with real-time visibility into commercial transactions, ensuring authenticity and completeness of invoices.

According to a statement by Dare Adekanmbi, special adviser on Media to FIRS Chairman Zacch Adedeji, at least 1,000 companies, representing 20% of more than 5,000 eligible firms, have already adopted the system and begun integrating with the FIRS platform.

Adekanmbi noted that the initiative, also known as the Merchant-Buyer Model, will be rolled out in phases. “Large taxpayers, which are companies with annual turnover of N5 billion and more, are expected to be the first to be onboarded on the platform,” he said.

FIRS revealed that MTN Nigeria was the first taxpayer to transmit live electronic invoices to the platform, while Huawei Nigeria and IHS Nigeria have concluded test transmissions and are expected to go live soon.

The agency added that the initial compliance deadline of August 1, 2025, has been extended by three months to accommodate companies currently facing onboarding challenges. The new deadline is now November 1, 2025.

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NGX Boss, Umaru Kwairanga, to Chair Business Journal Fintech Roundtable 2025

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NGX Boss, Umaru Kwairanga
NGX Boss, Umaru Kwairanga

Dr. Umaru Kwairanga, Group Chairman, Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX) will Chair the 2nd Business Journal Fintech & Financial Inclusion Roundtable 2025 scheduled for Friday, August 29, 2025 at Oriental Hotel, Lekki, Lagos. Time is 10-am prompt.

The theme of the Roundtable is: Fintech & Financial Inclusion: The Opportunities & Challenges for Nigeria.

In a statement, Prince Cookey, Publisher/Editor-in-Chief of Business Journal Media Group said the choice of Umaru Kwairanga to chair the event is a reflection of his immense and chequered journey in the Nigerian economic system over the years.

“Dr. Umaru Kwairanga is a noted player in the Nigerian economy and financial services sector. Over the years, he has carved a positive niche in driving the narrative in national policy formulation, implementation and review. He remains a worthy point of reference and role model to current and future players in the Nigerian economy.”

Alhaji (Dr.) Umaru Kwairanga, Sarkin Fulani Gombe and Group Chairman, Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX), is a notable player in the Nigerian corporate world, a thorough-bred professional and a prominent community leader in Gombe State and the North East region.

He has served at the highest levels of the banking, pension, investment, manufacturing and commercial sectors of Nigeria’s economy. He is the current Chairman of the Nigerian Exchange Group Plc, Nigeria’ oldest stock exchange and also Chairman of Tangerine General Insurance Limited.

The NGX Chairman is also a Director on the Boards of First Bank Senegal Limited, Tangerine Apt Pensions Limited and the Group Managing Director of Finmal Finance Services Limited.  

He is a past Chairman of Ashaka Cement plc and previously served on the Boards of Jaiz Bank Plc, Central Securities Clearing System Plc, Lafarge Africa Plc and First Bank Mortgages Limited to mention a few.

Professionally, Alhaji Kwairanga is a Fellow of the Chartered Institute of Stockbrokers, Chartered Institute of Directors of Nigeria, the Certified Pension Institute of Nigeria and the Abuja Commodities and Securities Exchange.

He is also a Council Member of the Chartered Institute of Stockbrokers; the Chartered Institute of Directors and he is the current President of the Certified Pensions Institute of Nigeria.

Kwairanga is a holder of the prominent traditional title of Sarkin Fulani Gombe and has led several initiatives for peace and development in Gombe State and the North East region in general.

He has also been involved in policy and strategy formulation in the public sector as a Member of the Vision 2020 Committee, the Presidential Advisory Committee on the Nigerian Industrial Revolution Plan and several committees of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

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