Energy
Mixed Oil Markets and Q2 Slowdown Signal Economic Warnings to Nigeria


BY: Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst, FXTM
Another recent escalation in the trade dispute between the US and China has punished crude Oil prices and set off warning signals for Oil-producing countries like Nigeria.
At the same time, Nigeria’s GDP slowed down to 1.94 percent in the second quarter from 2.1 percent in the first quarter, following the trend seen in several economies such as Germany and the UK.
It is becoming quite clear that as long as oil dependence remains one of Nigeria’s biggest risks, this will continue weighing heavily on the economy for the rest of 2019. While the GDP data should nudge the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to cut interest rates for the second time this year in September in an effort to stimulate growth, this is a temporary fix to a bigger problem
What trade disputes mean for Nigeria’s economy
Persistent trade disputes between the world’s two largest economies is set to fuel fears over a global slowdown or even recession. Oil prices declined on the basis that a decelerating global growth may result in lower demand for the commodity Nigeria relies on for 90% of its export earnings.
In the context of a trade dispute, tariffs are like bombs exploding on trading relationships, supply deals and eventually on company profits.
Trade tensions also remain a direct threat to Nigeria’s economy. The risk factors are escalating along with the probability that the world may see an economic slowdown in the short-to-medium term.
Under the current circumstances, there are three main challenges Nigeria must navigate. They are China’s slowdown, lower oil prices, and the need for fast and adaptive monetary policy to handle local and external shocks.
Will China impact Nigeria’s growth prospects?
China’s growth slowed to 6.2% in the second quarter, its weakest expansion in three decades.
Most recently, China’s backing in the form of loans reached $16 billion and its vested interest is seen as a key support for the current production level of 1.85 million barrels per day.
However, Nigeria aims to reach three million barrels per day and needs more investment from China, which may prove to be more difficult going forward if China’s economy continues to decline.
The high level of debt to China is also proving to be a weight on fiscal revenues because Nigeria spent 50% of its 2018 government revenues on debt repayment.
Indeed, the IMF has urged Nigeria to curb its large appetite for Chinese loans as the country struggles with a €70 billion debt burden. That’s up from €62 billion in 2017, representing a year-on-year rise of 12.25 percent.
Lower oil prices remain a threat to Nigeria’s recovery
The prospect of high debt levels to China amid lower oil prices is something that must not be overlooked.
At the time of writing, Oil benchmarks come under continuous pressure from demand-side concerns, including recession fears stemming from trade disputes.
The money from Oil sales is the lifeblood of the Nigerian economy. In the worst-case scenario, if Oil prices start drifting lower there could be unwelcome consequences such as even slower GDP growth, job losses, sovereign debt defaults, less money in the fiscal budget for development, and constrained consumer spending.
Reduced crude Oil sales would affect government revenues and reserves, meaning the capacity to fund projects will be weakened. Stock markets together with investor sentiment domestically and externally would be impacted and possibly even trigger capital outflows.
Can Monetary policy handle downside shocks?
One would have expected economic momentum to pick up from Q1 after CBN cut interest rates in March and forced lenders to dish out more credit in a bid to boost growth.
While lower rates have the potential to keep the economy running, the answer to Nigeria’s woes can be found in diversification. The level of progress the nation has made in breaking away from the shackles of oil reliance remains a question for many with even the International Monetary Fund urging the nation to diversify revenues.
Another concern is friction over a recent UK court decision allowing a natural gas company to take over nine billion USD worth of Nigerian sovereign assets in London. The government has refused to accept the ruling and plans to appeal but the CBN may still need to step in to defend the Naira.
There is still some light at the end of the tunnel for the Nigerian economy if the right steps are taking in breaking away from oil reliance to other sustainable sources of economic growth. However, if Oil prices continue to send warning signals to Nigeria’s economic policy makers by trading sideways or declining, fiscal measures combined with monetary policy easing measures may become urgently needed to accelerate economic diversification.


The re-entry into Ogoniland marks a historic turning point for Nigeria, not just in terms of oil production, but more broadly, this milestone reflects the spirit of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda, which commits to building a stronger country, attracting responsible investment, and ensuring that community development is at the heart of national progress.
Speaking during the presentation of the Ogoni Consultations Report at the State House in Abuja on Wednesday, President Tinubu acknowledged that the Ogoni people have endured long years of pain, and that this re-entry reflects the government’s recognition of their sacrifices.
“We are not, as a government, taking lightly the years of pain endured in Ogoniland. We recognise that, otherwise we would not be here today…We declare with conviction that hope is here and is back with us,” the President said.
The Group Chief Executive Officer of NNPC Ltd, Engr. Bashir Bayo Ojulari, echoed the President’s sentiments, calling the development a re-affirmation of the company’s unwavering commitment to the Ogoni re-entry plan and a bold step towards justice, healing, and national prosperity. He emphasized that the re-entry demonstrates that Nigeria can confront its past, honour the sacrifices of its communities, and forge a new path with a vision of prosperity and justice for all.
“The re-entry into Ogoniland is not just about oil and gas. It is about justice, healing, and charting a new future for our nation,” Ojulari said.
Ogoni re-entry can be seen as both a test and an opportunity for the country. It demonstrates that equity can exist in national development, and oil can co-exist with environmental stewardship and inclusive nation-building. This milestone is a practical example of how President Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda translates into reality by strengthening our country, creating conditions for responsible investment, while prioritising the prosperity of host communities.
Ojulari acknowledged the pivotal leadership of the National Security Adviser, Mallam Nuhu Ribadu, in convening a committee that brought diverse stakeholders together, creating the platform for dialogue and consensus that made this breakthrough possible. He also praised the work of Professor Don Baridam and members of the Presidential Committee, who engaged tirelessly and transparently with all relevant parties to produce a report that tells a story of fairness and inclusivity that will ultimately bring closure and renew hope for the Ogoni people and all Nigerians.
“The lesson is that this journey cannot be driven solely by production volumes. It must be anchored on justice, equity, sustainability, and most importantly, collaboration with the very people whose land bears this wealth,” he stated.
To that end, Ojulari was categorical that in resuming operations in Ogoni, NNPC Ltd will continue to build trust by prioritising community engagements with key stakeholders, investing in infrastructure, and empowering local enterprise.
He confirmed that NNPC has already began initiatives in road construction, infrastructure upgrades, and economic empowerment programs designed to rebuild trust and demonstrate accountability in an inclusive manner. “NNPC Ltd is determined to transform Ogoniland from a symbol of conflict into a beacon of reconciliation, renewal, and sustainable progress,” he concluded.
In his remarks, the National Security Adviser, Mallam Nuhu Ribadu, echoed the general sentiments that sustainable progress is possible and proven through collaboration with all parties concerned. He said the report was the outcome of an intensive, methodical, and transparent engagement, while Professor Baridam, on behalf of the Committee, thanked the President for his unwavering commitment to the well-being of the Ogoni people, stressing that through diplomacy and relentless insistence on dialogue, host community trust was earned, and hope restored.
This restored hope is also a message for the international community— Ogoni re-entry is more than a Nigerian milestone. It is a classic example of how a resource-rich nation like Nigeria can reconcile environmental protection with energy security. By placing community benefit at the centre, Nigeria is rewriting the global playbook on how oil and gas operations can co-exist with local aspirations, sharing a global example of how energy development can be reconciled with environmental protection and community inclusion.
For Nigeria, it signals progress is being redefined as a partnership between government, industry, and the people.
Energy
Sahara Group Highlights Collaborative Approach to Africa’s Energy Transition at AEW 2025


Sahara Group, a leading global energy and infrastructure conglomerate, will spotlight “cooperation, innovation and sustainability” as crucial elements for Africa’s energy transition during the 2025 Africa Energy Week (AEW) in Cape Town.
For three decades, Sahara Group has powered growth and broadened access to energy across Africa and will through its delegation to the AEW urge the continent’s stakeholders, policy makers, and governments to join forces towards driving Africa-centric solutions for all sectors in the energy value chain.
The 2025 Africa Energy Week (AEW), scheduled for Cape Town, South Africa, from September 29 to October 3, will focus on the theme: “Invest in African Energies: Positioning Africa as the Global Energy Champion.”
Speaking ahead of the event, Ade Odunsi, Executive Director, Sahara Group, said “Sahara Group believes Africa can shape a future that secures energy access for Africans safely, reliably, and sustainably by leveraging technology, innovation, and collaborating on policies to drive affordable, reliable, and cleaner energy across the continent.”
Sahara Group’s delegation to AEW 2025 include Leste Aihevba, Chief Technical Officer, Asharami Energy, a Sahara Group Upstream Company, Bethel Obioma, Head Corporate Communications, Sahara Group, Dr. Tosin Etomi, Head of Commercial and Planning, Asharami Energy, and Mariah Lucciano-Gabriel, Head of Integrated Gas Ventures, Asharami Energy.
Aihevba, who is leading the charge for advancing digital oilfield technologies to drive triple digit growth ambitions, will showcase how domestication of international best practices can help shape the local capacity building narrative to deliver significant improvements in operational efficiency and climate conscious sustainability initiatives in Africa.
“Asharami Energy is aligning global best practices with local realities, building capacity, and driving operational excellence across our portfolio. This synergy of innovation and responsibility is what ensures we deliver value today while safeguarding the energy future of tomorrow.”
Etomi will highlight the critical role data should play in harnessing opportunities for growing the energy sector in Africa. “Data has become the most powerful currency in building efficiency and resilience. By applying advanced analytics to our operations across Africa, we are improving asset performance, enhancing transparency, and unlocking financing pathways that ensure African energy projects compete on a global stage.”
Lucciano-Gabriel will speak on gas commercialisation, highlighting Gas as Africa’s bridge to a cleaner energy future. “With projects focused on capturing and monetizing flare gas, Asharami Energy is at the helm of efforts that are not only boosting domestic energy availability and driving the Nigerian Decade of Gas strategy but also curbing emissions and accelerating sustainable growth across the continent.”
Obioma, who will moderate the AEW 2025 session on “Rethinking Utility Models to Build Resilient and Affordable Electricity Markets,” said “The future of electricity in Africa will be defined by models that support a mix of micro grids, mini grids, national grids and renewable solutions, designed to serve communities and industries sustainably.”
With an integrated energy model spanning upstream, midstream, downstream, power, and infrastructure in Africa, Asia, Europe and the Middle East, Sahara Group remains committed to delivering value across the energy value chain.
Energy
Fresh Crisis Rocks NUPENG as Stakeholders Call for Resignation of President, General Secretary
By ORJI ISRAEL


The embattled President and General Secretary of Nigeria Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas Workers (NUPENG), Comrades Williams Akporeha and Afolabi Olawale, have taken fresh swipe from Petroleum Tanker Drivers (PTD) just as the Branch stakeholders called for the duo’s immediate resignation in order to give room for fresh air and stability in the union.
The latest call was contained in a statement signed by Comrade Preye Odede-Graham on Sunday, September 21, 2025, on behalf of PTD elders and stakeholders, Comrades (Alhaji) Tajudeen Abubakar (Kaduna Zone), Chief (Comrade.) Edafe Osas (Warri Zone), Comrade Joseph Dagogo-Jack (JP) (Port Harcourt Zone) and Comrade Kolade Fadahunsi-Ojelabi (Lagos Zone).
This latest onslaught came on the heels of ongoing industrial disputes between Dangote Refinery, NUPENG, the Depot and Petroleum Products Marketers Association of Nigeria (DAPPMAN), the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), and other industry Associations.
PTD blamed the recent woes befalling NUPENG on the lacklustre attitude of the union’s President as well as intimidation, victimization and harassment of the members of PTD by the General Secretary which is at variance with the extant rules of the union as well as human dignity.
PTD maintained that they no longer wanted to be used as attack dogs against the federal government especially President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and other players in the industrial ecosystem.
They lampooned leaders of NUPENG over their failure to hail the tenacity of Dangote Refinery for standing against all odds to defeat the process pressure and market disruption with the 650,000 bpd capacity alongside with the 4000 CNG trucks tankers and 6000 truck cargoes totalling 10000 trucks costing N2 trillion to move the products to the consumers at no cost, with value added of over 40,000 jobs.
They also begged President Tinubu to ensure high tariffs increase to discourage fuel importation and add increased crude supply to Dangote Refinery with licence for oil exploration. They further advised Mr. President to nationalise oil well so as to allow for proper dredging which majority licensed sites were desolate and moribund.
They begged law enforcement agencies, anti-graft agents, industry regulators, Federal government, stakeholders in trade union, media, civil society, legal profession, etc, to support them to commence the re-engineering of NUPENG by showing Afolabi and Williams the exit doors from the union so that the petroleum industry could get the much anticipated liberation.
“On this note, we therefore appeal to all our members in PTD and others in various branches not to be despaired, let us join hands together and win the battle against these common enemies and stop them once and for all, these multidimensional nonsense and slavery in the union must be hurriedly put to stop. United, we stand against every economic saboteurs and enemies of progress in Nigeria’s economic powerhouse” the statement said.
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