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{Opinion}What the recent oil disruption means for Nigeria

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The unprecedented Oil disruption in Saudi Arabia in September shocked the markets and triggered multiple financial reactions for investors across the globe.

Oil prices exploded 20 percent higher on Monday September 16 after attacks on Saudi Oil fields caused disruptions of 5.7 million barrels per day, roughly five percent of global Oil supplies. Oil later gave back gains after Saudi Arabia pledged that Oil production would be up and running by the end of September.

However, there are doubts that the damage – which is thought to run into the hundreds of millions of Dollars – will be fixed so quickly.

Dynamic influencing Oil market swing back and forth

The uncertainty is also disrupting Oil prices, which spike intermittently before calming on data like the US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) report about a 2.4 million barrel build in Crude oil inventories on September 25.

On top of that, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East add more concerns for the short-term future of Oil markets.

Going forward, Oil prices are expected to be more sensitive to negative supply shocks, at least in the short term. If the serious tensions between Iran and the US escalate, Oil prices may be supported with a degree of upside potential.

OPEC continues with its quest to stabilize markets

Another factor to consider is OPEC’s reaction and possible change of mind over its supply cut policy. As recently as September 12, OPEC persuaded Nigeria to join supply cuts to prevent a global glut from drastically undercutting prices and Oil revenues for Oil-producing countries. The supply-side circumstances have changed considerably since then.

Recent reports have revealed that OPEC’s oil output fell to an eight-year low in September, pumping 28.9 million barrels per day (bpd) which was down 750,000 bpd from August’s revised figure and lowest monthly total since 2011.

Should Saudi Arabia experience more attacks or take longer than expected to restore normal Oil production from the damaged facilities, OPEC may need to reconsider supply cuts and increase production so its members can meet global supply demand.

At the time of writing, Nigeria’s Light Sweet Crude Oil Kwa Ibo and Bonny Light are trading at their normal level of $3 above the Brent Crude benchmark because Saudi Arabia has pledged to be back to normal light Crude oil production levels by the end of September. In the meantime, Saudi Arabia has restored output to 11.3 million barrels per day but is relying on sales of heavy Crude oil. Should Saudi Arabia disappoint the market’s expectations, light sweet Crude oil prices may change in Nigeria’s favour.

Overall, given how Oil sales account for roughly 70 percent of government revenues and 90 percent of Nigeria’s foreign exchange earnings, if the recent disruption results in a net rise in Oil prices, it could offer short-term support to the nation.

Impact on Nigeria’s economic growth

As an emerging market energy exporter, the prospects of rising Oil prices should feed back into Nigeria’s economic growth. Higher Oil prices would boost the nation’s foreign exchange reserves, promote foreign exchange stability and boost government spending in economic infrastructure which in turn would be positive for growth.

On the other hand, Nigeria’s fiscal and monetary policy makers must always be on the lookout for inflationary pressures. In August, inflation in Nigeria fell to 11.02 percent, a 43-month low. But higher Oil prices may squeeze company and consumer transportation budgets, re-igniting inflation.

Higher Oil price could hit consumer spending

The flip side of higher Oil prices is the risk of rising inflation. This would likely drag on consumer spending and complicate central bank efforts to ease monetary policy, which may end up pressuring economic growth.

On a larger scale, the threat of a global recession lurks around the corner. Rising Oil prices could also threaten global growth with higher running costs.

While Nigeria and energy producers would welcome higher Oil prices, everyone will lose if unaffordable costs tip the global economy into recession.

Diversification remains the cure to Nigeria’s oil dependence

In September, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) left interest rates unchanged at 13.5 percent. Movements in the Oil markets have a direct impact on CBN’s rate decisions, so I am closely watching developments in this area. Especially when considering how the CBN Governor wants inflation to slow to 9% or less before he considers cutting interest rates further.

Long term, for Nigeria to reduce exposure to Oil volatility, the quest for diversification needs to build momentum. Nigeria could source growth from non-Oil sectors like Agriculture and Services.

In conclusion, until diversification reduces Nigeria’s dependence on Oil revenues, the economy remains vulnerable to Oil price volatility and an uneven demand-supply equation.

FXTM Senior Research Analyst, Lukman Otunuga comments on what the recent oil disruption means for Nigeria

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Energy

NNPC, Dangote Strengthen Strategic Partnership

Bot partners reaffirmed commitment to Healthy Competition Towards National Prosperity, reports SANDRA ANI

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NNPC and Dangote partnership
Group CEO of NNPC Ltd., Mr. Bashir Bayo Ojulari receives the President/Chief Executive of Dangote Group, Mr. Aliko Dangote during a visit by the latter to the NNPC Towers, on Thursday

As part of ongoing efforts to promote mutually beneficial partnerships and foster healthy competition, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd.) and Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals (DPRP) have pledged to deepen collaboration aimed at ensuring Nigeria’s energy security and advancing shared prosperity for Nigerians.

This commitment was made during a courtesy visit by the President/Chief Executive of Dangote Group, Mr. Aliko Dangote, and his delegation to the Group CEO of NNPC Ltd., Mr. Bashir Bayo Ojulari, and members of the company’s Senior Management Team at the NNPC Towers, on Thursday.

During the visit, Dangote pledged to collaborate with the new NNPC Management to ensure energy security for Nigeria.

“There is no competition between us, we are not here to compete with NNPC Ltd. NNPC is part and parcel of our business and we are also part of NNPC. This is an era of co-operation between the two organizations.” Dangote added.

While congratulating the GCEO and the Senior Management Team on their “well-deserved appointments,” Dangote acknowledged the enormity of the responsibility ahead, noting that the GCEO is shouldering a monumental task, which he expressed confidence that, with the capable hands at his disposal in NNPC, the task is surmountable.

In his remarks, the GCEO, Mr. Bashir Bayo Ojulari assured Dangote of a mutually beneficial partnership anchored on healthy competition and productive collaboration.

Ojulari highlighted the exceptional caliber of talent he met in NNPC Ltd., describing the workforce as a dedicated, highly skilled and hardworking professionals who are consistently keen on delivering value for Nigeria.

Expressing the company’s readiness to build a legacy of national prosperity through innovation and shared purpose, Ojulari said NNPC will sustain its collaboration with the Dangote Group especially where there is commercial advantage for Nigeria.

Both executives also committed to being the relationship managers for their respective organisations through sustained productive collaboration and healthy competition, thereby envisioning limitless opportunities for both organizations.

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AVEVA is providing data management support for renewable natural gas projects

Reporter: Godwin Ezeh

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Caspar Herzberg, CEO of AVEVA

Key Highlights

●        AVEVA’s industrial information infrastructure has been selected by Archaea Energy to provide key data management support

●        AVEVA’s industrial software to optimize performance across Archaea’s RNG plants

AVEVA, a global leader in industrial software driving digital transformation and sustainability, has been selected by Archaea Energy, the largest renewable natural gas (RNG) producer in the US, to build a comprehensive operations data management infrastructure.

Using AVEVA’s software, Archaea Energy can collect, enrich and visualize its real-time operations data, enabling performance analysis across its growing network of plants.

Using AVEVA PI Data Infrastructure, a hybrid solution with cloud data services, the plants will be able to share data to highlight operational opportunities and optimize efficiency.

Caspar Herzberg, CEO, AVEVA, stated,

“Through this collaboration and the use of AVEVA PI Data Infrastructure, Archaea’s growing network of plants will have streamlined operations with accurate performance analysis throughout the expansion. AVEVA’s CONNECT software platform leverages industrial intelligence from a central location, making it easier to deploy additional digital solutions in the future.”

“As the largest RNG producer in the United States, we are dedicated to delivering reliable, clean energy,” said Starlee Sykes, chief executive officer of Archaea Energy. “This relationship will allow us to optimize operations and offer detailed performance analysis as we continue to expand across the country.”

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Energy

Boost for Nigeria’s Oil Production, As NNPC’s Utapate Crude Grade Hits Global Oil Market

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Utapate Crude Roadshow

…OML 13 Asset Eyes 80,000 bpd by End of 2025

In a major boost for Nigeria’s crude oil production, revenue generation and economic growth efforts, the NNPC Ltd has officially unveiled its latest crude oil grade, the Utapate crude oil blend, before the international crude oil market.

It would be recalled that in July, 2024, NNPC Ltd and its partner, the Sterling Oil Exploration & Energy Production Company (SEEPCO) Ltd introduced the Utapate crude oil blend, following the lifting of first cargo of 950,000 barrels which headed for Spain.

During a ceremony held at the Argus European Crude Conference taking place in London, United Kingdom, on Wednesday, the Managing Director, NNPC E & P Limited (NEPL), Mr. Nicholas Foucart described the introduction of the Utapate crude oil blend into the market as a significant milestone for Nigeria’s crude oil export to the global energy market.

“Since we started producing the Utapate Field in May 2024, we have rapidly ramped up production to 40,000 barrels per day (bpd) with minimum downtime. So far, we have exported five cargoes, largely to Spain and the East Coast of the United States; while two more additional cargoes have been secured for November and December 2024, representing a significant boost to Nigeria’s crude oil export to the global market,” Foucart told a packed audience of European crude oil marketers.

He added that since its introduction into the global market, the Utapate crude oil blend has enjoyed a positive response from the international crude oil market, due to its highly attractive qualities.

Foucart said the Oil Mining Lease (OML) 13, fully operated by NEPL and Natural Oilfield Services Ltd (NOSL), a subsidiary of SEEPCO Ltd, boasts a huge reserves of 330million barrels of crude oil reserves, 45 million barrels of condensate and 3.5 tcf of gas. 

“We have a number of ongoing projects to increase our production from the current 40,000bopd to 50,000bopd by January 2025 and 60,000bopd to 65,000bopd by June 2025. Essentially, we are targeting opportunities to increase production to 80,000bopd by the end of 2025,” Foucart added.

He said the Utapate crude oil terminal is sustainable, affordable and fully compliant with the rigorous environmental regulations and sustainability principles especially those aimed at reducing carbon emissions and other ecological effects.

Also speaking, the Managing Director of NNPC Trading Ltd (NTL), Mr. Lawal Sade said the pricing structure of the Utapate crude oil blend is similar to that of Amenam crude as it is a light sweet crude which is highly sought after by refiners across the world due to its low sulphur content, efficient yield of high-value products, API gravity and other similarities.

He said in bringing the new crude oil blend to the global market, NNPC Ltd wanted to optimise value for both its producers and counterparties across the globe.

He added to ensure predictability and sustainability of supply, the NNPC Trading intends to run a term contract on the Utapate crude oil blend cargoes, principally targeting off-takers from the European and the US East Coast refineries.

Produced from the Utapate field in OML 13 in Akwa Ibom State in Nigeria, the Utapate crude oil blend is similar to the Nembe crude oil grade. It has a low sulphur content of 0.0655% and low carbon footprint due to flare gas elimination, fitting perfectly into the required specification of major buyers in Europe.

The NNPC E&P Ltd and NOSL partnership is also committed to operating in a manner that is safe, environmentally responsible, and beneficial to the local communities.

The Utapate field development plan, executed between 2013-2019 and approved in October, included converting wells and facilities from swamp/marine to land-based operations.

The plan involved a multi-rig drilling campaign for 40 wells and the development of significant infrastructure such as production facilities, storage tank, a subsea pipeline and an offshore loading platform to facilitate crude oil evacuation and loading.

The entry of the Utapate crude oil blend into the market is coming barely a year after the NNPC Ltd announced the launch of Nembe crude oil, produced by the NNPC/Aiteo operated Oil Mining Lease (OML) 29 Joint Venture (JV).

This remarkable achievement signals the commitment of the NNPC Ltd to increasing Nigeria’s crude oil production and growing its reserves through the development of new assets.

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