Energy
Nigeria Economy Will Benefit from Seplat and ExxonMobil Deal, says Wood Mackenzie


Seplat Energy Plc on February 25 announced an agreement to acquire the entire share capital of Mobil Producing Nigeria Unlimited (MPNU), a subsidiary of ExxonMobil.
In its recent insight, Wood Mackenzie, a trusted intelligence provider that empowers decision-makers with unique insights on the world’s natural resources said in the energy transition era, both ExxonMobil and Seplat will be pleased with the deal, adding that the deal offers huge upside for oil as well as gas.
Also, Wood Mackenzie, the leading research and consultancy business for the global energy, power and renewable, resurface, chemicals, metals and mining industry, said because this deal is a corporate acquisition, NNPC has no rights to pre-empt a deal under the Joint Operating Agreement (JOA), which governs the JV, rather that ministerial consent would be the only hurdle remaining, “although nothing can be taken for granted”.
MPNU has a 40percent operated interest in a Joint Venture with NNPC (60percent). The JV includes OMLs 67, 68, 70, 104, the Qua Iboe oil export terminal. MPNU also has a 51percent interest in the Bonny River NGL Recovery project.
Seplat has agreed to pay $1,283 million plus a contingent consideration of up to $300 million. The effective date is 1 January 2021 and completion is expected in H2 2022, pending ministerial approval. Seplat’s debt financing of $825 million is fully committed by a syndicate of Nigerian and African banks, and energy and commodity traders.
Implications: If it completes, the deal will be transformational for Seplat Energy. It is already the leading indigenous company in Nigeria, but this will triple its working interest production to over 140,000 boe/d. In total, Seplat will operate 15percent of Nigerian oil production.
Crucially, the deal diversifies its operations into shallow water, which is largely devoid of the thefts afflicting its onshore operations. Although this is Seplat’s first offshore acquisition, it will acquire all of MPNU’s Nigerian staff, thus allaying any concerns about its operational capabilities.
Valuation
Our equity-based valuation of MPNU – excluding the Qua Iboe terminal – is $870 million (discounted 10percent, January 2021, $50/bbl long-term).
However, at $70/bbl, we value the company at $1.678billion. In the energy transition era, ExxonMobil will be pleased with this deal. But so will Seplat, as the deal offers huge upside for oil as well as gas.
The portfolio includes a massive 1.3 billion boe of contingent resources, 75percent of which is gas. Less than half of its 70 fields have been developed.
Although the JV has been in production since the early 1970s, its maturity relates more to the extensive infrastructure than the reservoirs themselves. Yes, many fields are in decline, but they have also been under-invested for over 20 years.
Seplat has built a business turning around the Majors’ unwanted assets, a process it started in 2010. With the acquisition, its portfolio becomes very oil dominated. ExxonMobil refused to be drawn into the high risk domestic gas market, and had no exposure to NLNG. As a result the acreage has the highest concentration of gas flaring in the country. Seplat, a listed company, will need to tackle this immediately.
Longer-term it will look to develop access into the domestic market in line with government policy, while there is also scope for LNG too. An FLNG project at Yoho on OML 104 was already under discussion before the deal. That could now accelerate, while long-term supply to NLNG is another option.
There is also possible upside from the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) fiscal terms. Our analysis shows the JV portfolio would more than double in value if Seplat converts. However, this is far from certain, since it would have to relinquish up to 60percent of its acreage and much of the resource it has just acquired. A thorough review of its now extensive portfolio to identify the most advantaged barrels will be an urgent priority. The deadline for converting to the new fiscal terms is February 2023.
The deal is not without risks either. Seplat will have to find billions of dollars in the longer term to transform its portfolio and some rationalisation could follow. NNPC will of course be Seplat’s JV partner, and its ability to fund its 60percent equity longer term as it transitions to a limited liability company will be just as critical to the success of the deal.
ExxonMobil
ExxonMobil has been planning to sell its JV business for years, and its exit is overdue. The shallow water JV assets have long been non-core and are some of the highest-cost barrels in its global portfolio.
Although emissions were not a key driver for selling, the deal will help with its recently announced net-zero targets for scope 1 and 2 emissions. The portfolio has an intensity of 48 kgCO2e/boe, more than double its global average.
It can now focus on renegotiating workable fiscal terms for its Nigerian deepwater assets like Erha and Usan. However, if that does not end successfully, a country exit could be on the cards, given its deepwater options in Guyana and Brazil.
No NNPC pre-emption
Because this is a corporate acquisition, NNPC has no rights to pre-empt a deal under the Joint Operating Agreement (JOA), which governs the JV.
This means that ministerial consent would be the only hurdle remaining, although nothing can be taken for granted.
Shell’s ongoing divestment of its subsidiary SPDC, similarly rules out pre-emption. If NNPC wants to acquire that portfolio, then it will have to out-bid the competition. If successful in raising up to $5 billion with Afrexim Bank it would have the firepower to do just that, and massively strengthen its position in the onshore delta.


…AVEVA highlights world-leading digital solutions to help oil and gas companies in Egypt, North Africa and the Mediterranean achieve decarbonization and value-chain innovation on the path to net-zero
AVEVA, a global leader in industrial software, driving digital transformation and sustainability, returns to the Egypt Petroleum Show (EGYPS) 2023 with the latest digital solutions for responsible use of the world’s resources.
Alongside Schneider Electric, AVEVA will showcase how connected industrial ecosystems harness data to support innovation and improve business performance for sustainability in the energy industry.
AVEVA brings its unparalleled portfolio of world-class digital software to EGYPS 2023, including popular asset performance management solutions and value chain optimization products, as well as the market-leading AVEVA digital twin technology. In addition, show delegates will be able to experience firsthand how AVEVA Unified Operations Center offers a 360-degree view of plant operations with greater visibility of energy sources, consumption and greenhouse emissions data.
With businesses beginning to realize the productivity, efficiency and scalability benefits of cloud computing, the industrial software-as-a-service platform AVEVA Connect has demonstrated its value in driving innovation, growth and sustainability for the energy sector. The platform now hosts AVEVA Production Accounting, which addresses the pressing issue of unaccounted losses for refineries, petrochemical plants, and other processing facilities.
Nayef Bou Chaaya, AVEVA Vice President, Middle East, Africa and Turkey, said, “After a successful presence at COP27 where we demonstrated the essential role of data-led technologies in supporting climate innovation and industrial decarbonization, I’m delighted the AVEVA team is returning to Egypt.
“At EGYPS 2023, we will showcase how our unrivalled suite of cutting-edge products can support the creation of a resilient, net-zero energy future, while enabling customers to implement their sustainability roadmaps at a challenging economic moment,” he added.
Sharing data to unlock innovation in a low-carbon economy
Digital technologies speed up innovation and value generation by eliminating internal and external silos. When operational data is infused with artificial intelligence (AI) in the cloud and shared across the connected industrial ecosystem, it creates a digital thread of contextualized, real-time, information so teams can collaborate in a smarter and more connected way.
Applications such as the industrial digital twin are already proving how companies can realize unprecedented economies, synergies and benefits for their own organizations and for society at large. The connected industrial economy further leverages these strengths by sparking industrial ingenuity and facilitating co-operation in a world where businesses face innumerable headwinds.
Bob Parker, Senior Vice President at leading analyst firm IDC said, at AVEVA WORLD 2022 “A rapidly evolving digital economy is unparalleled in depth and scope after being accelerated by the pandemic. Asset-intensive industry segments of the old economy including oil and gas (…), are under new pressure on operations to be increasingly resilient. This requires higher levels of asset instrumentation and capabilities that use the data gathered to speed up decision-making and innovation. Ultimately, this is leading to the rise of connected industrial ecosystems.”
Delegates visiting the AVEVA and Schneider Electric stand at EGYPS 2023 will experience firsthand how they can combine engineering data with real-time and transactional data to unlock actionable insights, redefine processes, enable deeper collaboration, and reduce value leaks while raising productivity – all in real time. They will be able to learn how to converge engineering, operations, and other data in context for end-to-end enterprise visibility using a single 360-degree view of plant operations. The latest asset performance management solutions will also be demonstrated at the event.
AVEVA experts will share how the connected industrial economy presents unprecedented opportunities for the energy sector at stand 2C30 at EGYPS 2023. The event is being held at the Egypt International Exhibition in Cairo from February 13-15, 2023.


Nigeria is a study in contradiction. It has the largest proven gas reserve in Africa yet faces a significant challenge in providing access to gas for a majority of its citizens and businesses.
On top of this, it occupies an unenviable position as one of the top seven gas-flaring countries in the world, according to the World Bank. The tale would be unbelievable if it was fiction.
Sadly, the reality is grim. Oil-producing companies burn off millions of cubic litres of natural gas during oil production.
They use a fancy term, gas flaring, to describe it. It doesn’t however take remove from the fact that the action, gas flaring, is a glaring waste of a wasting resource. It also impacts negatively on the environment, human health and the cost of gas. It needs to be stopped.
Over the last couple of years, governments have sought to curtail incidents of gas flaring, increase the use of gas and boost revenue from it, all with varying degrees of success.
To highlight the commitment of the federal government to boost the domestic use of gas among Nigerians as the primary energy source President Muhammadu Buhari declared the ‘Decade of Gas’ (January 1, 2021, to 2030). An integral part of the process is the development of gas infrastructure, with the construction of the 614km Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano gas pipeline the number one starting point.
The goal is simple, to increase the domestic utilisation of LPG and CNG, commercialise gas flares, develop industrial gas markets and increase gas-to-power. Related policies which are already in the works include the National Gas Expansion Programme and the Autogas policy.
Experts argue, however, that despite the government’s best efforts to increase the distribution of liquified petroleum gas (LPG), also known as cooking gas, a large number of Nigerians still rely on firewood and charcoal for cooking with the attendant damage to the environment and impact on the climate.
Now one of the main reasons for this is the lack of infrastructure and distribution networks for LPG. Many areas in the country do not have access to gas pipelines, making it difficult for residents to obtain cooking gas.
We’ll require a study to explore the risk associated with the current gas tank retail marketing method. Additionally, the cost of LPG is prohibitively high for low-income households, who make up the bulk of the population.
Figures from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show how deep the poverty is – 63 per cent of persons living in Nigeria (133 million people) are multidimensionally poor. It’s a grim picture.
GlobalData reports that by flaring, rather than utilising gas for power generation or other domestic needs, Nigeria and other nations involved in such acts, could lose up to $82 billion a year globally. Other countries in this unholy group include Algeria, Angola, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Malaysia, Mexico, Russia, the US and Venezuela. They accounted for over 87 per cent of all flared gas in 2020.
Independent sources reveal that Nigeria flared an average of 11.1m3/bbl of gas in 2021. The issue here is that the Nigeria Gas Flare Commercialisation Programme (NGFCP), which seeks to curb the act, has loopholes along with low and weakly enforced penalties. It needs to be tightened and strengthened to make it more effective.
Nigeria had 208.62 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of gas reserve as of January 2022, according to the Commission Chief Executive (CCE) of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Gbenga Komolafe, an engineer. However, the development of gas, especially for domestic use, is still relatively low.
The price is still in the skies for many potential users. Right now, the concern is that with the rising cost of cooking gas, the domestic utilisation of LPG may decline. It remains to be seen how this will impact the achievement of the ‘Decade of Gas’ objectives.
There are several steps that the government can take to increase access to cooking gas for Nigerians. As a concerned citizen and cooking gas user, here are my thoughts on five things that the government can do to improve access to natural gas:
Firstly, the government must invest in building pipelines and distribution networks to reach residential and business areas and improve access to LPG.
Secondly, while the country has significant natural gas reserves a lack of investment in the sector has led to low production of LPG. It is time for the government to encourage investment in the sector to increase domestic production and thus curb the importation of LPG.
In addition, to demonstrate the resolve to improve the use of gas among citizens, the government can look at providing subsidies for LPG to make it more affordable for low-income households. This will make it more accessible to those who currently are unable to afford it.
Furthermore, since reports indicate that Nigerians are unaware of the benefits of using LPG as a cooking fuel, the government can launch a campaign to educate citizens on the benefits of LPG and how to safely use it.
Finally, the government must create an enabling environment to encourage private sector participation and investment in the LPG industry. This will increase the availability of LPG and possibly help drive down prices.
With the implementation of these measures, Nigeria can truly increase access to cooking gas for a majority of its citizens and reduce the country’s dependence on firewood and charcoal. This will not only improve the quality of life for citizens, but it will also help the environment by reducing deforestation and air pollution caused by the burning of firewood.
Eromosele, a Corporate Communication professional and public affairs analyst lives in Lagos.
Energy
AVEVA Showcases Role of Digital Technologies in Achieving Zero-Carbon Economy at COP27
Industrial software leader returns to annual UN Climate Change Conference to show how digital technologies are driving responsible use of global resources to build net-zero economies


AVEVA, a global leader in industrial software, driving digital transformation and sustainability, will highlight how digital technologies can support public-private partnerships and unlock innovation to close the implementation gap on climate change at COP27.
The United Nations Climate Change Conference 2022 is being held on November 6-18 in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt. A sponsor of the parallel Climate Action Innovation Zone, AVEVA believes trusted data-led technologies are essential to decarbonization, driving responsible use of the world’s resources and delivering innovative, climate-forward products in the net-zero economy. AVEVA is one of the first 50 companies in the world1 to have its net-zero commitments validated by the Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi).
AVEVA’s presence at COP27 will be led by some of its most prominent climate advocates: Amish Sabharwal, Executive Vice-President – Engineering and Simulation and member of AVEVA’s Executive Leadership Team; Lisa Wee, Global Head of Sustainability; and Nayef Bou Chaaya, Vice-President – Middle East, Africa & Turkey.
During a number of thought-provoking sessions at the Sustainable Innovation Forum 2022, being held alongside COP27, the AVEVA executives will use real-life examples to showcase how digital technologies are unlocking opportunities in the net-zero economy.
Global opportunities in climate change mitigation
Sabharwal will join a plenary panel on November 10. Alongside UN executives, he will seek to explain why climate change mitigation represents our biggest opportunity yet.


“UN data shows that immediate action can halve greenhouse gas emissions (GHG emissions) by 2030 and put us on track to achieving our goal of keeping global temperature increases to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. At the same time, we are facing our biggest opportunity yet. Climate change is accelerating the fourth industrial revolution and nowhere is that more obvious than in the communities and industries here in Africa.,” Sabharwal said. “The decisions we take at COP27 and beyond will put the global economy on track to building resilient net-zero economies that drive the adaptation and mitigation agenda. Digital technologies are integral to building the new industries and supply chains that will deliver sustainable growth and create new jobs.”
Sabharwal added: “Closing the implementation gap on the world’s ambitious decarbonization commitments presents a major source of economic opportunity for businesses and communities.”
Move towards sustainability handprint thinking
On November 9, broadcaster Nik Gowing will interview Wee in the context of her role as a climate leader.


She will share insights from the frontline of climate change mitigation and offer real-life examples of how AVEVA and its partners are paying it forward by co-innovating climate-responsive technological solutions to help usher in a zero-carbon economy.
“At AVEVA we recognize that we can drive exponential impact through the products we bring to market while supporting our customers on their decarbonization journey,” Wee said. “Now, our thinking has moved beyond measuring and managing our carbon footprint to considering our sustainability handprint. This positive contribution to sustainability through business activities and partnerships is a way of paying it forward to secure a better future for humanity and our planet.”
Role of partnerships in decarbonization
Also on November 9, Bou Chaaya will amplify the discussion around innovation in the face of climate change in a high-level spotlight session, with case studies of how global organizations are responding to – and taking advantage of – the opportunities arising from the focus on net-zero targets.


“Public-private partnerships can speed up delivery of the next-generation of low-carbon technologies by 2030 and break down silos in the development of new low-emission products to meet the world’s net-zero goals,” Bou Chaaya said. “AVEVA’s expertise has already demonstrated the role of digital technology in developing and scaling green grids and accelerating sustainable development through smart cities and smart water applications. We are convinced of the importance of driving private-sector collaboration on scope 3 upstream and downstream mitigation activities. We believe an open and connected industrial economy based on free-flowing data networks will be essential to hasten and scale up those sectors that are hardest to decarbonize.”
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