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FXTM Analysis – Investors on high alert as trade tensions intensify

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Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst at FXTM, comments on investors’ mood as US – China trade tensions intensify.

Donald Trump’s latest threat to impose fresh tariffs on China has roiled financial markets and left investors on high alert.

In a shocking development, Trump yesterday warned of his intention to impose tariffs on an additional $200 billion worth of Chinese goods.

This undesirable move is likely to worsen US-China trade relations and fuel concerns of a potential global trade war.

The ongoing friction between the two nations has clearly kept market players on edge, with global stocks sliding amid the growing caution.

With the escalating ‘tit-for-tat’ trade war seen as a major risk to global stability, investors may offload riskier assets for safe-haven investments.

More pain ahead for emerging markets?

Emerging market currencies have been treated without mercy by a broadly stronger Dollar.

The intensifying trade tensions between the United States and China simply added to market jitters, consequently weighing heavily on emerging markets.

While the prospect of higher US interest rates is likely to stimulate fears of capital outflows from emerging markets, global trade concerns present a major risk.

Intensifying trade tensions may trigger fears of increasing global protectionism negatively impacting growth in developing nations – ultimately spelling more trouble for EM currencies and stocks.

South African Rand crumbles

The South African Rand has tumbled to its lowest levels in over six months as escalating trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies eroded appetite for riskier currencies.

An appreciating Dollar simply compounded to the Rand’s woes with price punching above 13.90 as of writing.

It must be kept in mind that the Rand was not alone, as other major emerging market currencies were under attack from a broadly stronger Dollar. The Rand has scope to weaken further if the Dollar continues to strengthen and global trade fears dent risk sentiment.

Oil slips on eroding risk appetite

A lack of appetite for risk amid the US-China trade dispute has resulted in Oil prices depreciating today.

Market expectations over OPEC and Russia easing supply curbs to counterbalance falling output from Venezuela as well as production outages from Iran have eroded appetite for the commodity.

Although a hike in production output seems to be priced in, Oil remains at risk of depreciating further if Friday’s OPEC meeting in Vienna ends in an impasse. It must be kept in mind that Iran, Venezuela and Iraq are expected to veto any decision made by Saudi Arabia and Russia to raise production levels.

Any disagreements or infighting between cartel members during the talks may trigger fears over the future of OPEC’s production cut deal.

WTI Crude is currently bearish on the daily charts with prices breaking below $65.00 this afternoon. Sustained weakness below this region could encourage bears to target $64.35 and $64.00, respectively.

Commodity spotlight – Gold

Gold has descended into the abyss despite intensifying trade tensions rattling financial markets and leaving investors on edge. The driver behind Gold’s depreciation remains an appreciating US Dollar.

With the Dollar likely to find ample support amongst the bullish sentiment towards the US economy and heightened expectations of higher US interest rates, Gold could be poised for further punishment.

While the argument for the precious metal to potentially rebound may be based around trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty, an appreciating Dollar could continue obstructing any upside gains.

Focusing on the technical picture, Gold is under pressure on the weekly timeframe. Sustained weakness below $1,280 level could be an early indication that bears are back in the game.

Previous support at this level could transform into a dynamic resistance that opens a path towards $1,264.

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Finance

AISA Has Refunded The Fees Paid By Yahaya Bello To EFCC

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The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) says the American International School Abuja (AISA) has refunded the fees paid by the immediate past governor of Kogi state, Yahaya Bello, for his children attending the school.

In response to a letter addressed to the Lagos zonal commander of the EFCC, the school said $845,852 was paid in tuition “since the 7th of September 2021 to date”.

AISA said the sum to be refunded is $760,910 because it had deducted educational services already rendered.

“Please forward to us an official written request, with the authentic banking details of the EFCC, for the refund of the above-mentioned funds as previously indicated as part of your investigation into the alleged money laundering activities by the Bello family.

Since the 7th September 2021 to date, $845,852.84 (Eight Hundred and Forty-Five Thousand, Eight Hundred and Fifty Two US Dollars and eighty four cents) in tuition and other fees has been deposited into our Bank account.

We have calculated the net amount to be transferred and refunded to the State, after deducting the educational services rendered as $760,910.84. (Seven Hundred and Sixty Thousand, Nine Hundred and Ten US Dollars and Eighty Four cents).

No further additional fees are expected in respect of tuition as the students’ fees have now been settled until they graduate from ASIA.”

In a chat with The Cable, the spokesperson of the EFCC, Dele Oyewale, confirmed that the school has refunded the money.

‘’The money has been paid into public account,” Dele Oyewale was quoted as saying

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Finance

Godwin Emefiele Disobeyed Direction Of Law With Intent To Harm The Public, He Printed ₦684.5M Using ₦18.9B Says EFCC in fresh charge

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The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission has filed a fresh charge at the High Court of the Federal Capital Territory against the embattled former governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Godwin Emefiele.

EFCC in the charge accused Emefiele of approving the printing of N684,590,000 at the rate of N18.96 billion.

EFCC also alleged that Emefiele broke the law with intent to harm the public during his implementation of the naira swap policy of the administration of former President Muhammadu Buhari.

The anti-graft agency also accused Emefiele of unlawfully approving the withdrawal of N124.8 billion from the Consolidated Revenue Fund of the Federation.

EFCC’s top prosecutor, Rotimi Oyedepo, SAN revealed that Emefiele will be arraigned on a new four-count charge before Justice Hamza Muazu

Counts one to four of the charge, read,

“STATEMENT OF OFFENCE: Public Servant disobeying direction of law with intent to cause injury to the public contrary to and punishable under Section 123 of the Penal Code Law, Cap. 89 Laws of the Federation, 1990.

“PARTICULARS OF THE OFFENCE: That you GODWIN IFEANYI EMEFIELE between the 19th day of October 2022 and 5th March 2023 in Abuja, knowingly disobeyed the direction of Section 19 of the CBN Act, 2007, by approving the printing of N375,520,000.00 pieces of colour swapped N1, 000, at the total cost of N11,052, 068,062 without the recommendation of the Board of Central Bank and the strict approval of the President, Federal Republic of Nigeria which conduct of yours caused injury to the public and you thereby committed an offence.”

This and three other charges were stated against him. They read;

“COUNT 2: “That you, GODWIN IFEANYI EMEFIELE, between the 19th of October 2022 and 5th March 2023 in Abuja, knowingly disobeyed the direction of Section 19 of the Central Bank of Nigeria Act, 2007, by approving the printing of 172,000,000 pieces of colour swapped N500 (Five Hundred Naira) Notes, at the total cost of N4, 471,066,040 without the recommendation of the Board of Central Bank and the strict approval of the President, Federal Republic of Nigeria which conduct of yours caused injury to the public and you thereby committed an offence.

“COUNT 3: “That you GODWIN IFEANYI EMEFIELE between the 19th day of October 2022 and 5th March 2023 in Abuja, knowingly disobeyed the direction of Section 19 of the CBN Act, 2007, by approving the printing of 137,070,000 pieces of colour swapped N200 (Two Hundred Naira) Note, at the total cost of N3, 441, 005, 280 without the recommendation of the Board of Central Bank and the strict approval of the President, Federal Republic of Nigeria which conduct of yours caused injury to the public and you thereby committed an offence.”

“COUNT 4: “That you, GODWIN IFEANYI EMEFIELE, on or about the 7th day of October 2020, in Abuja, within the jurisdiction of this Honorable Court, knowingly disobeyed the direction of Section 80 of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, 1999 (As Amended), by approving the withdrawal of the total sum of N124, 860, 227, 865.16 from the Consolidated Revenue Fund of the Federation in a manner not prescribed by the National Assembly, which conduct of yours caused injury to the public and you thereby committed an offence.”

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Transport

Federal Government To Launch Out 2700 CNG Buses, Tricycles Ahead Of First anniversary Of Tinubu’s Administration

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The Presidency on Sunday said it was ready to launch about 2,700 CNG-powered buses and tricycles before May 29 when President Bola Tinubu turns one year in office.

“All is now ready for delivery of the first set of critical assets for deployment and launch of the CNG initiative ahead of the first anniversary of the Tinubu administration on May 29.”

It said the Federal Government is set to deliver 100 conversion workshops and 60 refuelling sites spread across 18 states before the end of 2024.

The Special Adviser to the President on Information and Strategy, Mr. Bayo Onanuga, revealed this in a statement he signed Sunday titled ‘Presidential CNG initiative set for rollout.’

“From the end of May, Nigeria will take some baby steps to join such nations that already have large fleets of CNG vehicles.

The CNG tricycle
The CNG buses

“All is now ready for delivery of the first set of critical assets for deployment and launch of the CNG initiative ahead of the first anniversary of the Tinubu administration on May 29.

“About 2,500 of the tricycles will be ready before May 29, 2024…working towards delivering 200 units before the first anniversary of the Tinubu administration,” said the Presidency.

He also said that over 600 buses are targeted for production in the first phase which will be accomplished in 2024.

In October 2023, about five months after the removal of the petrol subsidy, President Tinubu launched the Presidential CNG Initiative to deliver cheaper, safer and more climate-friendly energy.

The CNG Initiative was designed to deliver compressed natural gas, especially for mass transit.

The Federal Government earmarked N100bn (part of the N500bn palliative budget) to purchase 5500 CNG vehicles (buses and tricycles), 100 Electric buses and over 20,000 CNG conversion kits, with plans to develop CNG refilling stations and electric charging stations nationwide.

The FG had said the initiative would ease the burden of the increased pump price on the masses.More information added that the creation of a new plant on the Lagos-Ibadan Expressway that will assemble the tricycles while Brilliant EV will assemble electric vehicles when it receives the Semi Knocked Down components.

The Presidency explained further, “The SKD parts manufactured by the Chinese company LUOJIA in partnership with its local partner to support the consortium of local suppliers of CNG tricycles are set for shipment to Nigeria and expected to arrive early in May.

It is expected that before 2027, There’ll be a considerable wave of these buses and tricycles in use.

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