Energy
EXPERT’s VIEW: Oil looking oversold heading into latest OPEC meeting
Jameel Ahmad, Global Head of Currency Strategy & Market Research at FXTM, comments on the markets’ mood in the run-up to the OPEC meeting.
There is a feeling of change within the strategy of how OPEC operates. This uncertainty has played a leading role behind the price of Oil coming under relentless pressure over the past couple of weeks, in anticipation of the cartel’s meeting in Vienna this week.
Concerns that OPEC and its non-member allies will increase production for the first time since late 2016 is a major contributor behind the sharp selling of Oil in recent weeks.
Back in late 2016, OPEC famously announced production cuts in a desperate measure to reduce the volume of oversupply in the market, the major catalyst behind Oil falling from above $110 to below $30 between mid-2014 and early 2016.
Speculation that OPEC could now reposition its strategy in the opposite direction has encouraged WTI Oil to decline nearly $10 in less than a month.
Anticipation of a drastic shift in OPEC’s mindset is quite puzzling to most when you consider that the previous theme heading into meetings was how much production output could possibly be cut from the market.
This focus has suddenly been replaced with anxiety over how much supply could potentially be added back into the market.
This suggests that there has been a rebalancing after years of an overwhelming oversupply of the commodity; equally, it could also point to underlying concerns that have been evident for some time, that some members no longer wish to comply with OPEC’s production cut deal.
Either way there is a shift in play, with previous global demand-side concerns being substituted to specific supply-side actions where the market is now expecting an increase in production.
The recent price action in the Oil markets suggests that investors are confident that OPEC will announce an increase in production output, but I do not expect that it will be to the degree that articulates WTI falling $10 in less than a month.
The commodity is at risk to being oversold as the OPEC get-together commences and could be in line for a rebound.
A hike in production output has already been priced in, but I am not ruling out a modest rebound over the upcoming trading sessions as the exact increase in production volume remains to be seen.
There is a risk that traders are expecting a little bit too much heading into the meeting and could reshuffle their positions upon speculation that OPEC will not increase production to the amount currently being priced in by the market between 500,000 to 1 million barrels a day.
After all, it did take a very long time to persuade OPEC committee members to agree to the historic production cuts all the way back in 2016, and it will not be a straightforward task to encourage a reverse in action.
If the expected rise in production is less than 300,000 barrels a day, we can’t rule out the possibility that there could be a rebound in prices.
Although both Saudi Arabia and Russia are thought to be actively encouraging an increase in production behind the scenes, this will likely be opposed by Iran, Venezuela and Iraq.
While none of these three nations has anywhere near the amount of influence over OPEC as either Saudi Arabia or Russia, there will be power in numbers if other producers in the cartel reject the proposal to increase supply.
This potential scenario does provide some light that traders would be mistaken to consider the OPEC outcome as a “done deal”.
One other factor that investors will need to carefully monitor is whether President Trump is now attempting to exert some influence over OPEC.
The United States President has used social media to attack OPEC, and has in the past repeatedly called out the cartel for “artificially” inflating the value of Oil.
If the market does attempt to appreciate on the OPEC meeting’s outcome, it could encourage Trump to lash out at OPEC once again.
Energy
NNPC, Dangote Strengthen Strategic Partnership
Bot partners reaffirmed commitment to Healthy Competition Towards National Prosperity, reports SANDRA ANI
As part of ongoing efforts to promote mutually beneficial partnerships and foster healthy competition, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd.) and Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals (DPRP) have pledged to deepen collaboration aimed at ensuring Nigeria’s energy security and advancing shared prosperity for Nigerians.
This commitment was made during a courtesy visit by the President/Chief Executive of Dangote Group, Mr. Aliko Dangote, and his delegation to the Group CEO of NNPC Ltd., Mr. Bashir Bayo Ojulari, and members of the company’s Senior Management Team at the NNPC Towers, on Thursday.
During the visit, Dangote pledged to collaborate with the new NNPC Management to ensure energy security for Nigeria.
“There is no competition between us, we are not here to compete with NNPC Ltd. NNPC is part and parcel of our business and we are also part of NNPC. This is an era of co-operation between the two organizations.” Dangote added.
While congratulating the GCEO and the Senior Management Team on their “well-deserved appointments,” Dangote acknowledged the enormity of the responsibility ahead, noting that the GCEO is shouldering a monumental task, which he expressed confidence that, with the capable hands at his disposal in NNPC, the task is surmountable.
In his remarks, the GCEO, Mr. Bashir Bayo Ojulari assured Dangote of a mutually beneficial partnership anchored on healthy competition and productive collaboration.
Ojulari highlighted the exceptional caliber of talent he met in NNPC Ltd., describing the workforce as a dedicated, highly skilled and hardworking professionals who are consistently keen on delivering value for Nigeria.
Expressing the company’s readiness to build a legacy of national prosperity through innovation and shared purpose, Ojulari said NNPC will sustain its collaboration with the Dangote Group especially where there is commercial advantage for Nigeria.
Both executives also committed to being the relationship managers for their respective organisations through sustained productive collaboration and healthy competition, thereby envisioning limitless opportunities for both organizations.
Energy
AVEVA is providing data management support for renewable natural gas projects
Reporter: Godwin Ezeh
Key Highlights
● AVEVA’s industrial information infrastructure has been selected by Archaea Energy to provide key data management support
● AVEVA’s industrial software to optimize performance across Archaea’s RNG plants
AVEVA, a global leader in industrial software driving digital transformation and sustainability, has been selected by Archaea Energy, the largest renewable natural gas (RNG) producer in the US, to build a comprehensive operations data management infrastructure.
Using AVEVA’s software, Archaea Energy can collect, enrich and visualize its real-time operations data, enabling performance analysis across its growing network of plants.
Using AVEVA PI Data Infrastructure, a hybrid solution with cloud data services, the plants will be able to share data to highlight operational opportunities and optimize efficiency.
Caspar Herzberg, CEO, AVEVA, stated,
“Through this collaboration and the use of AVEVA PI Data Infrastructure, Archaea’s growing network of plants will have streamlined operations with accurate performance analysis throughout the expansion. AVEVA’s CONNECT software platform leverages industrial intelligence from a central location, making it easier to deploy additional digital solutions in the future.”
“As the largest RNG producer in the United States, we are dedicated to delivering reliable, clean energy,” said Starlee Sykes, chief executive officer of Archaea Energy. “This relationship will allow us to optimize operations and offer detailed performance analysis as we continue to expand across the country.”
…OML 13 Asset Eyes 80,000 bpd by End of 2025
In a major boost for Nigeria’s crude oil production, revenue generation and economic growth efforts, the NNPC Ltd has officially unveiled its latest crude oil grade, the Utapate crude oil blend, before the international crude oil market.
It would be recalled that in July, 2024, NNPC Ltd and its partner, the Sterling Oil Exploration & Energy Production Company (SEEPCO) Ltd introduced the Utapate crude oil blend, following the lifting of first cargo of 950,000 barrels which headed for Spain.
During a ceremony held at the Argus European Crude Conference taking place in London, United Kingdom, on Wednesday, the Managing Director, NNPC E & P Limited (NEPL), Mr. Nicholas Foucart described the introduction of the Utapate crude oil blend into the market as a significant milestone for Nigeria’s crude oil export to the global energy market.
“Since we started producing the Utapate Field in May 2024, we have rapidly ramped up production to 40,000 barrels per day (bpd) with minimum downtime. So far, we have exported five cargoes, largely to Spain and the East Coast of the United States; while two more additional cargoes have been secured for November and December 2024, representing a significant boost to Nigeria’s crude oil export to the global market,” Foucart told a packed audience of European crude oil marketers.
He added that since its introduction into the global market, the Utapate crude oil blend has enjoyed a positive response from the international crude oil market, due to its highly attractive qualities.
Foucart said the Oil Mining Lease (OML) 13, fully operated by NEPL and Natural Oilfield Services Ltd (NOSL), a subsidiary of SEEPCO Ltd, boasts a huge reserves of 330million barrels of crude oil reserves, 45 million barrels of condensate and 3.5 tcf of gas.
“We have a number of ongoing projects to increase our production from the current 40,000bopd to 50,000bopd by January 2025 and 60,000bopd to 65,000bopd by June 2025. Essentially, we are targeting opportunities to increase production to 80,000bopd by the end of 2025,” Foucart added.
He said the Utapate crude oil terminal is sustainable, affordable and fully compliant with the rigorous environmental regulations and sustainability principles especially those aimed at reducing carbon emissions and other ecological effects.
Also speaking, the Managing Director of NNPC Trading Ltd (NTL), Mr. Lawal Sade said the pricing structure of the Utapate crude oil blend is similar to that of Amenam crude as it is a light sweet crude which is highly sought after by refiners across the world due to its low sulphur content, efficient yield of high-value products, API gravity and other similarities.
He said in bringing the new crude oil blend to the global market, NNPC Ltd wanted to optimise value for both its producers and counterparties across the globe.
He added to ensure predictability and sustainability of supply, the NNPC Trading intends to run a term contract on the Utapate crude oil blend cargoes, principally targeting off-takers from the European and the US East Coast refineries.
Produced from the Utapate field in OML 13 in Akwa Ibom State in Nigeria, the Utapate crude oil blend is similar to the Nembe crude oil grade. It has a low sulphur content of 0.0655% and low carbon footprint due to flare gas elimination, fitting perfectly into the required specification of major buyers in Europe.
The NNPC E&P Ltd and NOSL partnership is also committed to operating in a manner that is safe, environmentally responsible, and beneficial to the local communities.
The Utapate field development plan, executed between 2013-2019 and approved in October, included converting wells and facilities from swamp/marine to land-based operations.
The plan involved a multi-rig drilling campaign for 40 wells and the development of significant infrastructure such as production facilities, storage tank, a subsea pipeline and an offshore loading platform to facilitate crude oil evacuation and loading.
The entry of the Utapate crude oil blend into the market is coming barely a year after the NNPC Ltd announced the launch of Nembe crude oil, produced by the NNPC/Aiteo operated Oil Mining Lease (OML) 29 Joint Venture (JV).
This remarkable achievement signals the commitment of the NNPC Ltd to increasing Nigeria’s crude oil production and growing its reserves through the development of new assets.
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