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EXPERT’s VIEW: Oil looking oversold heading into latest OPEC meeting

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Jameel Ahmad, Global Head of Currency Strategy & Market Research at FXTM, comments on the markets’ mood in the run-up to the OPEC meeting.

There is a feeling of change within the strategy of how OPEC operates. This uncertainty has played a leading role behind the price of Oil coming under relentless pressure over the past couple of weeks, in anticipation of the cartel’s meeting in Vienna this week.

Concerns that OPEC and its non-member allies will increase production for the first time since late 2016 is a major contributor behind the sharp selling of Oil in recent weeks.

Back in late 2016, OPEC famously announced production cuts in a desperate measure to reduce the volume of oversupply in the market, the major catalyst behind Oil falling from above $110 to below $30 between mid-2014 and early 2016.

Speculation that OPEC could now reposition its strategy in the opposite direction has encouraged WTI Oil to decline nearly $10 in less than a month.

Anticipation of a drastic shift in OPEC’s mindset is quite puzzling to most when you consider that the previous theme heading into meetings was how much production output could possibly be cut from the market.

This focus has suddenly been replaced with anxiety over how much supply could potentially be added back into the market.

This suggests that there has been a rebalancing after years of an overwhelming oversupply of the commodity; equally, it could also point to underlying concerns that have been evident for some time, that some members no longer wish to comply with OPEC’s production cut deal.

Either way there is a shift in play, with previous global demand-side concerns being substituted to specific supply-side actions where the market is now expecting an increase in production.

The recent price action in the Oil markets suggests that investors are confident that OPEC will announce an increase in production output, but I do not expect that it will be to the degree that articulates WTI falling $10 in less than a month.

The commodity is at risk to being oversold as the OPEC get-together commences and could be in line for a rebound.

A hike in production output has already been priced in, but I am not ruling out a modest rebound over the upcoming trading sessions as the exact increase in production volume remains to be seen.

There is a risk that traders are expecting a little bit too much heading into the meeting and could reshuffle their positions upon speculation that OPEC will not increase production to the amount currently being priced in by the market between 500,000 to 1 million barrels a day.

After all, it did take a very long time to persuade OPEC committee members to agree to the historic production cuts all the way back in 2016, and it will not be a straightforward task to encourage a reverse in action.

If the expected rise in production is less than 300,000 barrels a day, we can’t rule out the possibility that there could be a rebound in prices.

Although both Saudi Arabia and Russia are thought to be actively encouraging an increase in production behind the scenes, this will likely be opposed by Iran, Venezuela and Iraq.

While none of these three nations has anywhere near the amount of influence over OPEC as either Saudi Arabia or Russia, there will be power in numbers if other producers in the cartel reject the proposal to increase supply.

This potential scenario does provide some light that traders would be mistaken to consider the OPEC outcome as a “done deal”.

One other factor that investors will need to carefully monitor is whether President Trump is now attempting to exert some influence over OPEC.

The United States President has used social media to attack OPEC, and has in the past repeatedly called out the cartel for “artificially” inflating the value of Oil.

If the market does attempt to appreciate on the OPEC meeting’s outcome, it could encourage Trump to lash out at OPEC once again.

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Energy

Boost for Nigeria’s Oil Production, As NNPC’s Utapate Crude Grade Hits Global Oil Market

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Utapate Crude Roadshow

…OML 13 Asset Eyes 80,000 bpd by End of 2025

In a major boost for Nigeria’s crude oil production, revenue generation and economic growth efforts, the NNPC Ltd has officially unveiled its latest crude oil grade, the Utapate crude oil blend, before the international crude oil market.

It would be recalled that in July, 2024, NNPC Ltd and its partner, the Sterling Oil Exploration & Energy Production Company (SEEPCO) Ltd introduced the Utapate crude oil blend, following the lifting of first cargo of 950,000 barrels which headed for Spain.

During a ceremony held at the Argus European Crude Conference taking place in London, United Kingdom, on Wednesday, the Managing Director, NNPC E & P Limited (NEPL), Mr. Nicholas Foucart described the introduction of the Utapate crude oil blend into the market as a significant milestone for Nigeria’s crude oil export to the global energy market.

“Since we started producing the Utapate Field in May 2024, we have rapidly ramped up production to 40,000 barrels per day (bpd) with minimum downtime. So far, we have exported five cargoes, largely to Spain and the East Coast of the United States; while two more additional cargoes have been secured for November and December 2024, representing a significant boost to Nigeria’s crude oil export to the global market,” Foucart told a packed audience of European crude oil marketers.

He added that since its introduction into the global market, the Utapate crude oil blend has enjoyed a positive response from the international crude oil market, due to its highly attractive qualities.

Foucart said the Oil Mining Lease (OML) 13, fully operated by NEPL and Natural Oilfield Services Ltd (NOSL), a subsidiary of SEEPCO Ltd, boasts a huge reserves of 330million barrels of crude oil reserves, 45 million barrels of condensate and 3.5 tcf of gas. 

“We have a number of ongoing projects to increase our production from the current 40,000bopd to 50,000bopd by January 2025 and 60,000bopd to 65,000bopd by June 2025. Essentially, we are targeting opportunities to increase production to 80,000bopd by the end of 2025,” Foucart added.

He said the Utapate crude oil terminal is sustainable, affordable and fully compliant with the rigorous environmental regulations and sustainability principles especially those aimed at reducing carbon emissions and other ecological effects.

Also speaking, the Managing Director of NNPC Trading Ltd (NTL), Mr. Lawal Sade said the pricing structure of the Utapate crude oil blend is similar to that of Amenam crude as it is a light sweet crude which is highly sought after by refiners across the world due to its low sulphur content, efficient yield of high-value products, API gravity and other similarities.

He said in bringing the new crude oil blend to the global market, NNPC Ltd wanted to optimise value for both its producers and counterparties across the globe.

He added to ensure predictability and sustainability of supply, the NNPC Trading intends to run a term contract on the Utapate crude oil blend cargoes, principally targeting off-takers from the European and the US East Coast refineries.

Produced from the Utapate field in OML 13 in Akwa Ibom State in Nigeria, the Utapate crude oil blend is similar to the Nembe crude oil grade. It has a low sulphur content of 0.0655% and low carbon footprint due to flare gas elimination, fitting perfectly into the required specification of major buyers in Europe.

The NNPC E&P Ltd and NOSL partnership is also committed to operating in a manner that is safe, environmentally responsible, and beneficial to the local communities.

The Utapate field development plan, executed between 2013-2019 and approved in October, included converting wells and facilities from swamp/marine to land-based operations.

The plan involved a multi-rig drilling campaign for 40 wells and the development of significant infrastructure such as production facilities, storage tank, a subsea pipeline and an offshore loading platform to facilitate crude oil evacuation and loading.

The entry of the Utapate crude oil blend into the market is coming barely a year after the NNPC Ltd announced the launch of Nembe crude oil, produced by the NNPC/Aiteo operated Oil Mining Lease (OML) 29 Joint Venture (JV).

This remarkable achievement signals the commitment of the NNPC Ltd to increasing Nigeria’s crude oil production and growing its reserves through the development of new assets.

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NNPC Ltd Set to Supply 100mmscf/d Gas to Dangote Refinery

…10-year Deal to Boost Local Production, Revamp Industrial Growth, reports Ikenna Oluka

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NNPC and Dangote
L-R: Managing Director, Nigeria Gas Marketing Limited (NGML), Barr. Justin Ezeala and President/CEO of the Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote display a signed Gas Sale and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) for the supply of natural gas to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals FZE, on Tuesday, in Abuja.

The NNPC Gas Marketing Limited (NGML), a subsidiary of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited, has successfully executed a Gas Sale and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) with Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals FZE.

The agreement, signed by the Managing Director, NGML, Barr. Justin Ezeala and the President/CEO of the Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote on Tuesday at the Corporate Head Office of Dangote in Falomo, Lagos State, outlines the supply of natural gas for power generation and feedstock at the Dangote Refinery, in Ibeju-Lekki, Lagos State.

This major milestone is in line with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s policy of utilizing Nigeria’s abundant gas resources towards revamping the nation’s industrial growth and kickstarting its economic prosperity.

This development, which sees a huge investment of this nature penned with zero capital expenditure (CAPEX) outlay, has been described by many as unprecedented in the history of NGML or any gas Local Distribution Company (LDC) in the country.

Under the terms of the agreement, NGML will supply 100 million standard cubic feet per day (MMSCF/D), 50MMSCF/D being firm supply and the rest 50MMSCF/D interruptible natural gas supply to the refinery for an initial period of 10 years, with options for renewal and growth.

This collaboration is a significant step toward ensuring the operational success of the Dangote Refinery and enhancing Nigeria’s domestic gas utilization.

NNPC Ltd, through NGML, its gas marketing subsidiary, continues to lead efforts in promoting the use of domestic gas to support industries and businesses nationwide.

The agreement represents a milestone for both NNPC Ltd and Dangote Refinery, aligning with their shared commitment to boosting local production and providing vital products for the benefit of all Nigerians.

It is also a further proof of NGML’s unwavering commitment to business excellence and fulfilling NNPC Ltd’s core mandate of ensuring Nigeria’s energy security through the execution of strategic gas projects across the country.

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AVEVA Unveils Key Learnings from its 2023 Sustainability Progress Report and first AVEVA Industrial Intelligence Index

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Caspar Herzberg, CEO of AVEVA
Caspar Herzberg, CEO of AVEVA

AVEVA, a global leader in industrial software, launches AVEVA’s 2023 Sustainability Progress Report and the first edition of the AVEVA Industrial Intelligence Index at London Tech Week 2024 where the company advocates for an ethical and impact-driven AI aimed at increasing creativity and efficiency for a more sustainable world.

AVEVA 2023 Sustainability Progress Report: key learnings

In 2023, AVEVA continued to make progress on its core ESG framework objectives, including enabling the sustainable transformation of industry through its software, modelling environmental stewardship and ethical best practice, and fostering an inclusive workplace culture where every employee feels engaged and empowered to learn and grow.

This fourth edition of the report is AVEVA’s first publication of ESG data and workstream advancements aligned to a calendar year reporting period. It details progress made in 2023 to AVEVA’s three key pillars: Technology handprint, Operational footprint, and Inclusive culture.

Technology handprint

“Beyond our efforts to reduce our own carbon footprint, we recognize that our biggest opportunity to make a positive impact and accelerate our journey towards NetZero is through our core products, digital solutions that can help industries improve efficiency, circularity, traceability and resilience” declared Lisa Wee, Global Head of Sustainability, AVEVA.

Lisa Wee, Head of Global Sustainability, AVEVA
Lisa Wee, Head of Global Sustainability, AVEVA

With this regard, the company has developed a green new logo program that has supported in the first six months the deployment of clean tech activities for 25 customers. In addition, with 13 new case studies quantifying the reduction of emissions AVEVA software enables for customers, the company demonstrates how it walks the talk through tangible achievements contributing to sustainability. Last but not least, hackathons run in 2023 generated 80 sustainability-led technology ideas for future innovations.

2023 also saw the launch of AVEVA’s Sustainability Accelerator program the purpose of which is to advance sustainability use cases and capabilities across the company’s portfolio and partner ecosystem, including via AVEVA’s industrial intelligence platform, CONNECT.

“AVEVA’s Sustainability Accelerator program aims to enable faster uptake of existing sustainability solutions across the industrial landscape, while we continue to invest in product capabilities and partnerships that will push out the frontiers of sustainability innovation for industry” said Joana Mainguy, Director of Sustainability in charge of the program.

Finally, AVEVA has pioneered a new standard for green software: since the end of 2023, 31% of its portfolio has built-in power consumption measurement technology.

Operational footprint

In 2023, AVEVA met 4 out of the 15 2025 ESG targets including 93% reduction in scope 1 and scope 2 emissions through a combination of measures: the company procured 100% of renewable electricity in all global markets as per RE100 criteria, reduced its overall fleet of 21% over the year, and counted hybrid or electric vehicles for 25% of the remaining fleet. Notable achievements related to upstream emissions include a 36% decrease in purchased goods and services and a 49% decrease in business travel emissions. The latter goes beyond our 2025 ESG goal of a 20% reduction.

Regarding the scope 3, AVEVA has integrated e-waste data in the inventory under the waste category to report another significant achievement: “Our initial target of diverting 5 tons of e-waste from landfill in 2025 was surpassed by 22.75 tons in 2023. 100% of e-waste sent to our disposal partner is now diverted from landfill,” explained Lisa Wee.

Inclusive culture

AVEVA’s commitment to developing a workplace environment where all employees feel included and are treated with dignity and respect is also highlighted in the report.

“Globally, with 39.9% of new hires, 29% of managers and 26,5% of leaders being women, AVEVA has significantly increased gender representation in 2023 and will continue in this direction to raise these numbers to 50% of new hires, 40% of managers and 30% of leaders by 2030. Besides, we have reached our goal of less than 1% pay equity, and it currently stands at 0.5%”,commented Lisa Wee with enthusiasm. In addition, AVEVA demonstrated its commitment to society donating £ 310,000 to causes supported by AVEVA employees’ communities around the world. 

AVEVA also achieved key milestones in regions: In the US, the company has developed a partnership with two Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs) for an ‘AVEVA Scholars Program. Spanning three years, the program includes scholarships and immersive onsite experiences, ultimately paving the way for talented Black scholars in Engineering and Computer Science to join the AVEVA team upon graduation. The pilot will kick-off mid-June 2024 and count 12 students.

AVEVA INDUSTRIAL INTELLIGENCE INDEX REPORT: A 2-in-1 publication to report on industrial needs and to give guidance on existing solutions through inspiring examples of successful and sustainable digital transformation:

At London Tech Week 2024, AVEVA launched its first annual AVEVA Industrial Intelligence Index:

“AVEVA has been supporting the industrial world for more than half a century. Listening to our customers’ needs and understanding their challenges is how we innovate and develop tailored solutions that will help them cope with current and future challenges. With more than 25 000 customers across all industries, we have built a unique expertise. Today I’m delighted to introduce our first AVEVA Industrial Intelligence Index Report. Our ambition is to issue this report every year to help C-suite executives, business unit leaders, and strategic decision-makers leverage industrial intelligence and succeed in the digital age, with inspiring insights about how industries transform towards a more sustainable future” declared Caspar Herzberg, AVEVA CEO.

Drawing on research conducted with 500 global industry executives across Europe, North America and Asia Pacific, this first edition gives valuable and actionable insights into the power, manufacturing, infrastructure, and chemicals industries. Including comments from AVEVA’s experts and leaders, the report unveils macro trends and describes the forces that drive change and innovation. It also presents case studies showcasing successful digitalization initiatives, and strategies for driving innovation and efficiency to chart a course towards a more sustainable and profitable future.

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