Energy
EXPERT’s VIEW: Oil looking oversold heading into latest OPEC meeting


Jameel Ahmad, Global Head of Currency Strategy & Market Research at FXTM, comments on the markets’ mood in the run-up to the OPEC meeting.
There is a feeling of change within the strategy of how OPEC operates. This uncertainty has played a leading role behind the price of Oil coming under relentless pressure over the past couple of weeks, in anticipation of the cartel’s meeting in Vienna this week.
Concerns that OPEC and its non-member allies will increase production for the first time since late 2016 is a major contributor behind the sharp selling of Oil in recent weeks.
Back in late 2016, OPEC famously announced production cuts in a desperate measure to reduce the volume of oversupply in the market, the major catalyst behind Oil falling from above $110 to below $30 between mid-2014 and early 2016.
Speculation that OPEC could now reposition its strategy in the opposite direction has encouraged WTI Oil to decline nearly $10 in less than a month.
Anticipation of a drastic shift in OPEC’s mindset is quite puzzling to most when you consider that the previous theme heading into meetings was how much production output could possibly be cut from the market.
This focus has suddenly been replaced with anxiety over how much supply could potentially be added back into the market.
This suggests that there has been a rebalancing after years of an overwhelming oversupply of the commodity; equally, it could also point to underlying concerns that have been evident for some time, that some members no longer wish to comply with OPEC’s production cut deal.
Either way there is a shift in play, with previous global demand-side concerns being substituted to specific supply-side actions where the market is now expecting an increase in production.
The recent price action in the Oil markets suggests that investors are confident that OPEC will announce an increase in production output, but I do not expect that it will be to the degree that articulates WTI falling $10 in less than a month.
The commodity is at risk to being oversold as the OPEC get-together commences and could be in line for a rebound.
A hike in production output has already been priced in, but I am not ruling out a modest rebound over the upcoming trading sessions as the exact increase in production volume remains to be seen.
There is a risk that traders are expecting a little bit too much heading into the meeting and could reshuffle their positions upon speculation that OPEC will not increase production to the amount currently being priced in by the market between 500,000 to 1 million barrels a day.
After all, it did take a very long time to persuade OPEC committee members to agree to the historic production cuts all the way back in 2016, and it will not be a straightforward task to encourage a reverse in action.
If the expected rise in production is less than 300,000 barrels a day, we can’t rule out the possibility that there could be a rebound in prices.
Although both Saudi Arabia and Russia are thought to be actively encouraging an increase in production behind the scenes, this will likely be opposed by Iran, Venezuela and Iraq.
While none of these three nations has anywhere near the amount of influence over OPEC as either Saudi Arabia or Russia, there will be power in numbers if other producers in the cartel reject the proposal to increase supply.
This potential scenario does provide some light that traders would be mistaken to consider the OPEC outcome as a “done deal”.
One other factor that investors will need to carefully monitor is whether President Trump is now attempting to exert some influence over OPEC.
The United States President has used social media to attack OPEC, and has in the past repeatedly called out the cartel for “artificially” inflating the value of Oil.
If the market does attempt to appreciate on the OPEC meeting’s outcome, it could encourage Trump to lash out at OPEC once again.


… Plant to create 5,000 jobs, produce 100 cubic metres of oxygen, 45 cubic metres of acetylene per hour
… Nitrogen, argon gas; carbon dioxide, CNG Stations in the pipeline
… Dr. Uduji: Mbah, Nehemiah of our time, rebuilding broken walls
…Kanayo O. Kanayo: Security is working in Enugu


Governor of Enugu State, Dr. Peter Mbah, on Thursday, unveiled Nigergas Company Limited, revamped and upgraded by his administration after over three decades of dormancy.
Mbah said Nigergas had so far created direct employment for over one hundred skilled and semi-skilled workers, and would further create over 5,000 indirect jobs across distribution, fabrication, transport and supplies chain.
He stressed that the revival of Nigergas company, which was established in 1962 as part of Dr. Michael Okpara’s after decades of abandonment, was another proof of his administration’s commitment to reviving state-owned moribund assets and grow Enugu State’s economy from $4.4bn to $30bn.
“What we have revived and unveiled today is not simply metal and a network of pipes; it is the restoration of purpose, dignity and productivity to a site that once symbolised Eastern Nigeria’s industrial promise.
“When we speak of the goal to grow our GDP from $4.4bn to $30bn, it is not mere posturing. It is rooted in the conviction that Enugu can become a truly diversified, self-reliant economy, if we muster the will to do things differently to launch us to the future we dream of,” he stated.
On Nigergas’ rehabilitation model, capacity, and expansion plan, Mbah said, “we approved a full rehabilitation scheme and a management model that blends public ownership with private-sector performance discipline.
“The intention was clear: retain public ownership, but run the facility on modern, accountable, commercially viable lines.
“So, today, Nigergas returns to production with modernised equipment and clear technical specifications designed to meet immediate healthcare and industry needs.


“The plant’s installed capacity has been upgraded to produce significant volumes of medical and industrial gases, ensuring steady local supply and reducing dependence on distant, expensive suppliers.
“Crucially, the plant will supply liquid oxygen, medical and industrial oxygen, and acetylene gas to our hospitals, welders, agro-processors and manufacturers, improving clinical outcomes and reducing production costs for businesses that are the backbone of local livelihoods.
“The new plant has a capacity to produce 100 cubic metres of oxygen per hour; and 45 cubic metres of acetylene per hour.
“We will soon bring on stream these additional products: nitrogen; argon gas; carbon dioxide; and CNG stations,” he said.
He maintained that Nigergas’ revival would guarantee access to reliable medical oxygen saves lives, on-demand industrial gases to lower operating costs, speeds turnaround and keeps workshops and factories turning.
“These improvements ripple outward: increased industrial activity strengthens our revenue base, and deepens opportunities for MSMEs,” he said.
He commended the Managing Director of the Enugu State Investment Authority, and the Commissioner for Trade, Investment and Industry, Dr. Sam Ogbu-Nwobod; the engineering firm, Ten Gas Development Ltd (a division of INDEV GROUP and the community leaders of Emene for their roles in resurrecting Nigergas.
speaking, Dr. Ogbu-Nwobodo expressed joy that although the firm established by Dr. Okpara Administration in partnership with Siad Machine Impianti was abandoned for over three decades due to mismanagement, misappropriation of revenue, abuse of company resources, nepotism, and weak corporate governance, Governor Mbah had restored the lost dreams.
The Managing Director, Ten Gas Development Ltd., Chief Chike Madueke, noted that the restored Nigergas would provide training and thousands of employments for the youths of the state.
The Chairman, Enugu State Traditional Rulers Council, Igwe Samuel Asadu; community leader and health consultant, Dr. Joy Uduji; Chairman of Enugu East LGA, Pastor Beloved Dan Anike and a businessman, Engr. George Ndubeze Ugwu, also commended Mbah for not only breathing life into dead state-owned assets, but for also building infrastructure that make lives better and enable businesses to thrive.


“You are the Nehemiah of our time. Like Nehemiah, who came and supervised the rebuilding of the walls of Jerusalem, you have also come to rebuild Enugu State,” Dr. Uduji said.
Speaking, Nollywood veteran actor and movie produce, Kanayo O. Kanayo, said, “It is not praise-singing, security is working here because when I come to make movies here, we usually stay out late into the night at Nike, and we are safe.”
Energy
President Tinubu Commissions WAGL’s 40,000 CBM LPG Vessel in South Korea
…Lauds Company’s Partners for Expanding Africa’s Role in Clean Energy


President Bola Ahmed Tinubu says Nigeria is poised to deliver clean and sustainable energy solutions not just in-country but also across Africa and beyond.
The President made the remarks today at the commissioning ceremony of a 40,000 cubic meters (CBM) Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) vessel, christened “MT Iyaloja (Lagos),” in Ulsan, South Korea.
The vessel owned by WAGL Energy Limited (an NNPC Ltd. /Sahara Group Joint Venture) is a dual-fuel, fully refrigerated LPG carrier. This latest addition brings WAGL’s total LPG vessel capacity to 162,000 CBM. Other vessels in the fleet include MT Africa Gas, MT Sahara Gas, MT BaruMK, and MT Sapet.
Represented by the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Gas), Rt. Hon. Ekperikpe Ekpo, the President commended WAGL Energy Limited, NNPC Limited and Sahara Group, for their strategic foresight, technical excellence and unwavering dedication to expanding Africa’s role in the global clean energy value-chain.
In his remarks, Group Chief Executive Officer (GCEO) of NNPC Ltd., Engr. Bashir Bayo Ojulari, described WAGL’s LPG Vessel as a great addition to gas development efforts in Nigeria.
The GCEO, who was represented by the Executive Vice President, Gas, Power & New Energy, Mr. Olalekan Ogunleye, added that the vessel will be crucial in realising the impact of gas in Nigeria’s economic development.
According to him, NNPC Ltd. is deepening its commitment to ensure LPG affordability, availability and access, nationwide.
“NNPC Ltd. is proud to be a major shareholder in this indigenous Company which in addition to the newly commissioned MT Iyaloja (Lagos), owns four (4) other LPG vessels in its growing fleet, delivering over 6 million MT of LPG across West Africa over the last 5 years,” he added.
Also speaking, WAGL’s Chairman/Executive Director at Sahara Group, Mr. Temitope Shonubi, noted that the company’s expansion demonstrates its vision of responsibly driving efforts aimed at bridging the continent’s critical energy infrastructure gap.”
“The addition of MT Iyaloja (Lagos) embodies the spirit of progress and empowerment championed by the iconic Alhaja Abibatu Mogaji, whose legacy we honour. Sahara Group is proud of its partnership with NNPC Ltd. and reaffirms its commitment to partnerships that drive energy access in Africa,” he added.
WAGL’s Managing Director, Mr. Mohammed Sani Bello stressed that the company is dedicated to expanding its integrated supply network across the entire energy value chain.
“WAGL already has plans to further expand the fleet within the next two years with the addition of a Small Gas Carrier and a Very Large Gas Carrier (VLGC),” he added.
The symbolic ribbon cutting of MT Iyaloja (Lagos) named in honour of Alhaja Abibatu Mogaji, MFR, (the late mother of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu), was performed by her grand-daughter, the Iyaloja-General of Nigeria, Alhaja Folasade Mujidat Tinubu-Ojo.


Key players and experts in Nigeria’s oil and gas and power sectors have called for concerted measures and actions that will lead to property utilization of the country’s vast gas reserves.
Key players and experts in Nigeria’s oil and gas and power sectors have called for concerted measures and actions that will lead to property utilization of the country’s vast gas reserves.
They expressed the opinion that Nigeria’s gas reserves are critical asset towards achieving the ongoing energy transition that will be affordable and sustainable.
Speaking at the 4th Oriental News conference in Lagos on Thursday July 24,2025 themed’ , “Integrating Nigeria’s Gas Potentials into Strategic Energy Transition Initiatives,” the Manager, Energy Transition NLNG, Temitope Ogedengbe, advised that Nigeria must avoid adopting a “copy-paste” approach to energy transition, insisting that the country must tailor its strategy to reflect local realities, including the urgent need for economic growth, energy security, and national development.
“Our transition must leverage our unique strengths and resources to grow our economy,” Ogedengbe said. “Energy transition should not be a copy-paste exercise.
“Nigeria must design its own, since we need economic development, energy security, and to address developmental issues.”
Ogedengbe, while highlighting challenges around gas utilisation, lamented that despite Nigeria’s abundant natural gas resources, a large portion is still being flared or reinjected due to the absence of viable commercial arrangements.
“We’re not taking nearly the amount we should be. We are still failing and reinjecting because there is no commercial arrangement to optimise this; for many reasons,” he stated.
He noted that while marginal fields hold potential, they are difficult to produce economically.
“The issues there are marginal fields, which are difficult to produce,” he said, adding that the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission’s (NUPRC) Gas Flaring Commercialisation Programme is trying to address this.
According to him, a significant chunk of Nigeria’s gas is still either exported or flared, while domestic utilisation and value addition remain underdeveloped.
“We are not investing enough, and we are not examining the right approaches,” he added.
Speaking on the global LNG market, Ogedengbe noted that although there is still a market for LNG produced by Nigeria, demand patterns are shifting, particularly in Europe, where buyers now favour lower-carbon LNG options.
He said, “There is still a market for LNG produced in Nigeria, but what is happening is that Europe is asking for lower-carbon LNG.
“There’s a need to use operational levers to reduce carbon, attract premium markets, and unlock funding opportunities, including through reduced taxes and levies.”
He further stated the NLNG remains central to Nigeria’s gas future, revealing that the company plans to expand its capacity to 30 million tonnes per annum.
” As part of its energy transition strategy, the company is integrating technologies and processes aimed at reducing emissions and generating carbon credits.
“We’re using offsets to reduce our emissions, both at the national and international levels, to take carbon out of the atmosphere and promote our operations,” he explained.
Ogedengbe emphasized the need for a multi-pronged, well-coordinated approach to decarbonising the country’s gas sector to ensure long-term viability and global competitiveness.
Also, at the same conference, former Power Minister, Prof. Bart Nnaji said that shortage of gas supply and infrastructure deficit has continued to act as disincentive to investment and growth of the power sector.
Nnaji, said in the next two decades power generation in the country will be dominated by gas fired plants.
He attributed Nigeria’s persistent gas shortage to inadequate investment in gas infrastructure and called for more support from both government and the private sector.
Nnaji, who chaired the event, addressed stakeholders from across the oil and gas value chain, including key government officials.
He said the country’s gas sector remains underdeveloped due to insufficient investment in extraction, transmission, and transportation.
“The focus should not rest solely on government-led efforts — the private sector must also play a vital role,” the former minister said.
“What we need is for the government to act as a true enabler, offering the necessary support for infrastructure and gas harvesting. It’s baffling that with over 210 trillion cubic feet of gas, we still face local shortages.
“We’re unable to produce sufficient quantities to support operations across the country. Though operations improved this year, they weren’t previously at full capacity. A seventh train is underway, but we need more gas.”
He said Nigeria’s history of mining and exporting coal before abandoning it reflects a wider pattern of resource neglect.
Nnaji said gas-fired plants are critical to Nigeria’s power generation, emphasising the need for a reliable supply to ensure thermal plants operate effectively.
He noted that Geometric Power Ltd, which he chairs, is among the companies generating electricity through thermal sources.
“For effective supply from thermal plants, an adequate and reliable gas supply is vital. While we have hydro power, gas-fired plants remain dominant and will likely stay that way for the next ten to twenty years,” he said.
Nnaji acknowledged the role of renewable energy in rural electrification but maintained that Nigeria’s baseload power must continue to come from gas or hydro sources.
He noted that hydro power, however, comes with limitations that require regional cooperation.
In her submission, Engr. Chichi Emenike, Acting Managing Director and Gas Asset Manager of Neconde Energy Limited, sounded alarm over the consequences of some policies of Government that has undermined the ongoing energy transition.
According to her, unpaid gas supplies, dollarised operations, and policy inconsistencies are discouraging investment in the sector.
Emenike, said Neconde, for instance, has gas that has been produced and supplied to the electricity generation companies (GenCos) and that has not been paid for almost two years now.”
“This is a serious conundrum, whereas we have sourced funds from somewhere to produce these gas molecules from our facilities. How am I going to pay back?”
Emenike further explained that Nigeria’s upstream gas production is highly dollarised, making it costlier than crude oil development and difficult to sustain without a commercially viable framework.
“Don’t forget that the gas production industry is highly dollarised, including the requisite inputs. There is no part of the operation, including the technology, that is produced locally. The bulk of it has to be imported in US$.
“The O&M, well drilling, and accessories to drill a gas well are all dollarised. So, it costs more than what it costs to drill a crude oil well. The handling of a gas well is highly sophisticated, unlike that of crude oil.”
Speaking on systemic issues within the gas-to-power value chain, Engr. Emenike said, “Over 500 million standard cubic feet (scf) of gas are being transported with the NGIC pipeline.
“If you multiply this figure by one dollar, you will understand the cost. Whereas so much money went into drilling some of these wells, it costs $35,000 plus or minus, and that is outside other assumptions of fees.”
Commenting on the financing and investment environment, Emenike called for a pragmatic national energy plan that begins with achievable goals, rather than lofty ambitions.
“Let us start with what is doable; I mean the low-hanging fruit. Let us stop with big numbers. We should tidy up small fields that are struggling to juggle both CAPEX and OPEX.
“We need to sit down once as a nation to be selfish enough to determine what is needed to take care of Nigeria’s economy alone in the Gulf of Guinea.”
She called for urgent clarity on Nigeria’s position in the energy transition and a realistic approach to funding.
“Where do we sit as Nigerians today on this energy transition plan? Where is the money to run the transition?
“Presently in Nigeria, it is difficult for a gas investor to determine end-to-end where the funds would be coming from. We need a strategy; we need to be serious. Or else, gas investors would rather take what they should have invested in the Nigerian economy to Mozambique or elsewhere.”
Emenike further warned about the economic risks associated with policy instability.
“Gas economics is such that it must be end-to-end. Even before you draw down the first financing, you have tied that investment to a commercial arrangement.
“When you have a business, as much as you think you know, in the case of Nigeria, once you put your leg out in this economy, you will see so many things flood in unexpectedly. Your IRR (rate of return) goes down the drain due to policy flip-flops and multiplicities of levies and fees.”
She insisted that the sector needs regulatory reforms and an end to what she described as rent-seeking behaviour by government agencies.
“We have to deal with the rent-seeking attitude of our regulators to enable investors repatriate their investment financing.
“They should stop flogging investors with all forms of regulations and later charge them with potential incidents of non-conformity, which translates to fines, even for not operating, after they have created the crisis.”
Calling for collaborative efforts, she advocated infrastructure sharing and coordination within the value chain.
“We need to leverage infrastructure to unlock the stranded assets across the country. We need to look at how to put together our war chest to achieve a lot for the industry. We need to set the rules of the game.”
She emphasised the importance of investor confidence and a market-driven approach.
“Every investor wants to see a clear line of sight. Market forces should be allowed to play out. The government should not create a monopolistic environment that stifles investment. They should allow it to have that flexibility.”
“None of these government officials understand how investors raise capital to finance their projects and the terms of it. Government has no business in business. They should stop the rent-seeking attitude and stop looking for short-term benefits. Quick fixes will not work.”
She has therefore challenged the FG to focus inwardly and begin with achievable solutions.
According to her, “There is much more to be gained if we have a very selfish Nigerian plan that focuses on Nigerian interests alone. This can service the entire Gulf of Guinea if we are serious. Let us start with the small gas fields.
She further urged the FG to stop putting benchmarks on gas for power, adding that the market forces should be allowed to dictate the price.
Engr. Emenike charged the Nigerian government to allow flexibility in the market and encourage alliances within the value chain operators.
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