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Analysis: Nigeria’s economy under Buhari…for better or worse?

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Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst at FXTM, comments on Nigeria’s economy under Buhari…for better or worse?

It is quite thought-provoking how this month marks just over three years since President Muhammadu Buhari secured a historic victory in Nigeria’s state elections.

There was a high degree of optimism over Buhari changing Nigeria for the better by reviving economic growth and fighting corruption &insecurity.

Much has happened over the past few years under the Buhari regime, with the nation going through various trials and tribulations. Confidence over the health of Nigeria’s economy was dealt a painful blow after a currency crisis threatened to cripple the nation. Inflation skyrocketed to worrying levels as the Naira tumbled and economic growth slowedfor the first time in 25 years. While it could be easy to blame the APC for Nigeria’s woes, it must be kept in mind that falling oil prices may have played a leading role.

What remains highly worrying is that the National Assembly has just recently passed a record N9.2 trillion budget for 2018. Such a development could negatively impact confidence over the nation’s political landscape, especially when considering how this budget was the most delayed in 19 years. It is worth noting that the 2017 budget followed a similarly disappointing pattern of delays which could have negatively impacted economic growth.

Speaking about economic growth, for the first time in over two decades Nigeria experienced a recession thanks to the combination of falling oil prices, political uncertainty and a sharply depreciating local currency. A strong suspicion remains that Buhari’s six-month delay to select a cabinet after being sworn in as President on 29 May 2015 weighed heavily on the nation.

His refusal to allow the Central Bank of Nigeria to devalue the Naira when falling oil prices were eroding the nation’s external reserves compounded to Nigeria’s woes. When the CBN eventually de-pegged the Naira in June 2016, the local currency depreciated so badly that the economy and citizens felt the pain.

The ripple effect ultimately created restrictions on international payments while crippling liquidity and repelling foreign investors.

Focusing on the macro economics, Nigeria’s unemployment rate has jumped 18.8% over the past three years, while youth unemployment rate is currently around 33.1%. Inflation rose to gravity-defying levels, from 9.8% in May 2015 to a 12-year high of 18.72% in January 2017.

Although inflation has moderated, dropping to 12.5% April thanks to the CBN’s efforts to promote FX stability, the effects can still be felt on the economy. While the country displayed its resilience againstthe global arena by staging a rebound in 2017 thanks to higher oil prices, the latest GDP report for Q1 of 2018 disappointed, by sliding 0.16%.

The truth is, Nigeria needs to implement more fiscal and monetary measures with a strong focus on agricultural development to boost economic growth.

Today, the nation proudly boasts foreign exchange stability and moderating inflationary pressures;this could be off the back of recovering oil prices.

Painful lessons fromthe past regarding falling oil prices should act as a wake-up call for the nation to break away from oil reliance and diversify into a self-sustaining economy.

The World Bank Group has expressed satisfaction over the performance of the Nigerian economy, while Fitch Ratings has affirmed Nigeria’s long-term foreign currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at B+ with a negative outlook.

With the implementation of the new Economic Growth and Recovery Plan (EGRP) supporting trade and capital flows, the outlook for Nigeria remains encouraging.

The Central Bank of Nigeria has the ability to boost economic growth by cutting interest rates. With inflationary pressures slowly becoming a theme of the past and economic data improving, it becomes a matter of when, rather than if, interest rates are cut.

President Buhari will be seeking a second term in office in elections next year and it will be interesting to see if he secures another historic victory. Whatever the outcome of the election, the future remains bright for Nigeria.

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Energy

Equatorial Guinea Boosts Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Production with Chevron Aseng Agreement

The agreement aims to unlock additional gas reserves offshore Equatorial Guinea, supporting the country’s goals to become a regional gas processing hub, reports ISRAEL ORJI

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Equatorial Guinea LNG Production with Chevron Aseng Agreement
Equatorial Guinea LNG Production with Chevron Aseng Agreement

The Government of Equatorial Guinea has taken a decisive step to advance its natural gas agenda, signing an Incentives Agreement with energy major Chevron for the development of the Aseng Gas Project in Block I.

The landmark agreement – signed between the Ministry of Hydrocarbons and Mining Development the Ministry of Finance and Chevron – underscores the country’s long-term strategy to consolidate its position as a premier hub for natural gas in Africa. 

The Aseng Gas Project represents an initial investment of approximately $690 million. The development will unlock new volumes of natural gas that will be directed toward domestic power generation and processing at the EGLNG facility.

In doing so, it secures feedstock for one of the country’s most important industrial assets, the Punta Europa Gas Complex, while creating new opportunities for value addition and energy security.  

This agreement signals more than a single project milestone. It demonstrates the government’s commitment to advancing the Gas Mega Hub (GMH) initiative – a bold strategy that leverages Equatorial Guinea’s existing infrastructure to monetize regional gas resources.

The integration of gas produced from the Aseng field represents the third phase of the GMH. By ensuring reliable supply to midstream facilities, the Aseng development positions the country as a critical partner in the continent’s energy future. 

“The Aseng Gas Project will provide a reliable supply of LNG to global markets while serving as a catalyst for advancing strategic developments such as the Punta Europa complex. In addition, it will enhance national and regional energy security, support clean cooking initiatives and drive economic growth through a sustainable energy supply,” stated Antonio Oburu Ondo, Minister of Hydrocarbons and Mining Development of Equatorial Guinea. 

Equatorial Guinea’s GMH has been a focal point of regional cooperation since its inception. The initiative seeks to aggregate stranded or associated gas resources from domestic fields and neighboring countries, processing them through existing infrastructure at Punta Europa.

By doing so, the country is transforming potential flared or underutilized resources into export revenue, domestic power and industrial growth.

In recent years, the government has signed a series of agreements aimed at expanding the scope of the hub. Partnerships with international operators have allowed Equatorial Guinea to process gas from the Alen Field and other regional assets.

The Aseng Gas Project adds further momentum, with Chevron consolidating its position as a strategic partner committed to the long-term success of the initiative. 

Chevron’s agreement follows key milestones in Equatorial Guinea’s gas market. Notably, ConocoPhillips exports its first cargo from the Punta Europe facility in June 2025, representing a critical step towards advancing the GMH initiative.

The Aseng Gas Project represents a cornerstone for the next phase of the country’s energy development.

By combining strategic partnerships, progressive reforms and visionary infrastructure planning, Equatorial Guinea is demonstrating how gas can serve as both an export revenue generator and a catalyst for broad-based economic transformation.

As the GMH advances, the country is solidifying its reputation as a model for African energy development – one where resource monetization, investor confidence, and sustainable growth converge. 

Building on this momentum and to reinforce its attractiveness as an investment destination, the government is undertaking comprehensive regulatory reforms.

The Hydrocarbons Law, Tax Law, Labor Law and the Special Economic Zones framework are all under review, reflecting a deliberate effort to create a modern, transparent, and competitive environment for investors.

These reforms will not only strengthen Equatorial Guinea’s credibility as a reliable partner but also lay the foundation for sustained project development across the oil and gas value chain.

The reforms complement a drive by the Ministry of Hydrocarbons and Mining Development to attract new investment across the market.

The country is preparing to launch its 2026 licensing round, featuring key assets that will support the country’s production goals.

By working closely with foreign operators, introducing new investment prospects and revisiting its regulatory environment, Equatorial Guinea is positioning itself for long-term growth.  

The African Energy Chamber (AEC), the voice of the African energy sector, supports the Aseng Gas Project agreement as it secures new gas supply, strengthens the Punta Europa complex, and drives the success of the Gas Mega Hub. 

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Energy

Ogoni Re-entry is a Beacon of Reconciliation through Collaboration – NNPC Ltd

By ORJI ISRAEL

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Group Chief Executive Officer of NNPC Ltd, Engr. Bashir Bayo Ojulari
Group Chief Executive Officer of NNPC Ltd, Engr. Bashir Bayo Ojulari

The re-entry into Ogoniland marks a historic turning point for Nigeria, not just in terms of oil production, but more broadly, this milestone reflects the spirit of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda, which commits to building a stronger country, attracting responsible investment, and ensuring that community development is at the heart of national progress.

Speaking during the presentation of the Ogoni Consultations Report at the State House in Abuja on Wednesday, President Tinubu acknowledged that the Ogoni people have endured long years of pain, and that this re-entry reflects the government’s recognition of their sacrifices.

“We are not, as a government, taking lightly the years of pain endured in Ogoniland. We recognise that, otherwise we would not be here today…We declare with conviction that hope is here and is back with us,” the President said.

The Group Chief Executive Officer of NNPC Ltd, Engr. Bashir Bayo Ojulari, echoed the President’s sentiments, calling the development a re-affirmation of the company’s unwavering commitment to the Ogoni re-entry plan and a bold step towards justice, healing, and national prosperity. He emphasized that the re-entry demonstrates that Nigeria can confront its past, honour the sacrifices of its communities, and forge a new path with a vision of prosperity and justice for all.

“The re-entry into Ogoniland is not just about oil and gas. It is about justice, healing, and charting a new future for our nation,” Ojulari said.

Ogoni re-entry can be seen as both a test and an opportunity for the country. It demonstrates that equity can exist in national development, and oil can co-exist with environmental stewardship and inclusive nation-building. This milestone is a practical example of how President Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda translates into reality by strengthening our country, creating conditions for responsible investment, while prioritising the prosperity of host communities.

Ojulari acknowledged the pivotal leadership of the National Security Adviser, Mallam Nuhu Ribadu, in convening a committee that brought diverse stakeholders together, creating the platform for dialogue and consensus that made this breakthrough possible. He also praised the work of Professor Don Baridam and members of the Presidential Committee, who engaged tirelessly and transparently with all relevant parties to produce a report that tells a story of fairness and inclusivity that will ultimately bring closure and renew hope for the Ogoni people and all Nigerians.

“The lesson is that this journey cannot be driven solely by production volumes. It must be anchored on justice, equity, sustainability, and most importantly, collaboration with the very people whose land bears this wealth,” he stated.

To that end, Ojulari was categorical that in resuming operations in Ogoni, NNPC Ltd will continue to build trust by prioritising community engagements with key stakeholders, investing in infrastructure, and empowering local enterprise.

He confirmed that NNPC has already began initiatives in road construction, infrastructure upgrades, and economic empowerment programs designed to rebuild trust and demonstrate accountability in an inclusive manner. “NNPC Ltd is determined to transform Ogoniland from a symbol of conflict into a beacon of reconciliation, renewal, and sustainable progress,” he concluded.

In his remarks, the National Security Adviser, Mallam Nuhu Ribadu, echoed the general sentiments that sustainable progress is possible and proven through collaboration with all parties concerned. He said the report was the outcome of an intensive, methodical, and transparent engagement, while Professor Baridam, on behalf of the Committee, thanked the President for his unwavering commitment to the well-being of the Ogoni people, stressing that through diplomacy and relentless insistence on dialogue, host community trust was earned, and hope restored.

This restored hope is also a message for the international community— Ogoni re-entry is more than a Nigerian milestone. It is a classic example of how a resource-rich nation like Nigeria can reconcile environmental protection with energy security. By placing community benefit at the centre, Nigeria is rewriting the global playbook on how oil and gas operations can co-exist with local aspirations, sharing a global example of how energy development can be reconciled with environmental protection and community inclusion.

For Nigeria, it signals progress is being redefined as a partnership between government, industry, and the people.

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Energy

Sahara Group Highlights Collaborative Approach to Africa’s Energy Transition at AEW 2025

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Sahara Group

Sahara Group, a leading global energy and infrastructure conglomerate, will spotlight “cooperation, innovation and sustainability” as crucial elements for Africa’s energy transition during the 2025 Africa Energy Week (AEW) in Cape Town.

For three decades, Sahara Group has powered growth and broadened access to energy across Africa and will through its delegation to the AEW urge the continent’s stakeholders, policy makers, and governments to join forces towards driving Africa-centric solutions for all sectors in the energy value chain. 

The 2025 Africa Energy Week (AEW), scheduled for Cape Town, South Africa, from September 29 to October 3, will focus on the theme: “Invest in African Energies: Positioning Africa as the Global Energy Champion.”

Speaking ahead of the event, Ade Odunsi, Executive Director, Sahara Group, said “Sahara Group believes Africa can shape a future that secures energy access for Africans safely, reliably, and sustainably by leveraging technology, innovation, and collaborating on policies to drive affordable, reliable, and cleaner energy across the continent.”

Sahara Group’s delegation to AEW 2025 include Leste Aihevba, Chief Technical Officer, Asharami Energy, a Sahara Group Upstream Company, Bethel Obioma, Head Corporate Communications, Sahara Group, Dr. Tosin Etomi, Head of Commercial and Planning, Asharami Energy, and Mariah Lucciano-Gabriel, Head of Integrated Gas Ventures, Asharami Energy.

Aihevba, who is leading the charge for advancing digital oilfield technologies to drive triple digit growth ambitions, will showcase how domestication of international best practices can help shape the local capacity building narrative to deliver significant improvements in operational efficiency and climate conscious sustainability initiatives in Africa.

“Asharami Energy is aligning global best practices with local realities, building capacity, and driving operational excellence across our portfolio. This synergy of innovation and responsibility is what ensures we deliver value today while safeguarding the energy future of tomorrow.”

Etomi will highlight the critical role data should play in harnessing opportunities for growing the energy sector in Africa. “Data has become the most powerful currency in building efficiency and resilience. By applying advanced analytics to our operations across Africa, we are improving asset performance, enhancing transparency, and unlocking financing pathways that ensure African energy projects compete on a global stage.”

Lucciano-Gabriel will speak on gas commercialisation, highlighting Gas as Africa’s bridge to a cleaner energy future. “With projects focused on capturing and monetizing flare gas, Asharami Energy is at the helm of efforts that are not only boosting domestic energy availability and driving the Nigerian Decade of Gas strategy but also curbing emissions and accelerating sustainable growth across the continent.”

Obioma, who will moderate the AEW 2025 session on “Rethinking Utility Models to Build Resilient and Affordable Electricity Markets,” said “The future of electricity in Africa will be defined by models that support a mix of micro grids, mini grids, national grids and renewable solutions, designed to serve communities and industries sustainably.”

With an integrated energy model spanning upstream, midstream, downstream, power, and infrastructure in Africa, Asia, Europe and the Middle East, Sahara Group remains committed to delivering value across the energy value chain.

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