GRBusiness
Analysis: Nigeria’s economy under Buhari…for better or worse?
Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst at FXTM, comments on Nigeria’s economy under Buhari…for better or worse?
It is quite thought-provoking how this month marks just over three years since President Muhammadu Buhari secured a historic victory in Nigeria’s state elections.
There was a high degree of optimism over Buhari changing Nigeria for the better by reviving economic growth and fighting corruption &insecurity.
Much has happened over the past few years under the Buhari regime, with the nation going through various trials and tribulations. Confidence over the health of Nigeria’s economy was dealt a painful blow after a currency crisis threatened to cripple the nation. Inflation skyrocketed to worrying levels as the Naira tumbled and economic growth slowedfor the first time in 25 years. While it could be easy to blame the APC for Nigeria’s woes, it must be kept in mind that falling oil prices may have played a leading role.
What remains highly worrying is that the National Assembly has just recently passed a record N9.2 trillion budget for 2018. Such a development could negatively impact confidence over the nation’s political landscape, especially when considering how this budget was the most delayed in 19 years. It is worth noting that the 2017 budget followed a similarly disappointing pattern of delays which could have negatively impacted economic growth.
Speaking about economic growth, for the first time in over two decades Nigeria experienced a recession thanks to the combination of falling oil prices, political uncertainty and a sharply depreciating local currency. A strong suspicion remains that Buhari’s six-month delay to select a cabinet after being sworn in as President on 29 May 2015 weighed heavily on the nation.
His refusal to allow the Central Bank of Nigeria to devalue the Naira when falling oil prices were eroding the nation’s external reserves compounded to Nigeria’s woes. When the CBN eventually de-pegged the Naira in June 2016, the local currency depreciated so badly that the economy and citizens felt the pain.
The ripple effect ultimately created restrictions on international payments while crippling liquidity and repelling foreign investors.
Focusing on the macro economics, Nigeria’s unemployment rate has jumped 18.8% over the past three years, while youth unemployment rate is currently around 33.1%. Inflation rose to gravity-defying levels, from 9.8% in May 2015 to a 12-year high of 18.72% in January 2017.
Although inflation has moderated, dropping to 12.5% April thanks to the CBN’s efforts to promote FX stability, the effects can still be felt on the economy. While the country displayed its resilience againstthe global arena by staging a rebound in 2017 thanks to higher oil prices, the latest GDP report for Q1 of 2018 disappointed, by sliding 0.16%.
The truth is, Nigeria needs to implement more fiscal and monetary measures with a strong focus on agricultural development to boost economic growth.
Today, the nation proudly boasts foreign exchange stability and moderating inflationary pressures;this could be off the back of recovering oil prices.
Painful lessons fromthe past regarding falling oil prices should act as a wake-up call for the nation to break away from oil reliance and diversify into a self-sustaining economy.
The World Bank Group has expressed satisfaction over the performance of the Nigerian economy, while Fitch Ratings has affirmed Nigeria’s long-term foreign currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at B+ with a negative outlook.
With the implementation of the new Economic Growth and Recovery Plan (EGRP) supporting trade and capital flows, the outlook for Nigeria remains encouraging.
The Central Bank of Nigeria has the ability to boost economic growth by cutting interest rates. With inflationary pressures slowly becoming a theme of the past and economic data improving, it becomes a matter of when, rather than if, interest rates are cut.
President Buhari will be seeking a second term in office in elections next year and it will be interesting to see if he secures another historic victory. Whatever the outcome of the election, the future remains bright for Nigeria.
Energy
NNPC Ltd Set to Supply 100mmscf/d Gas to Dangote Refinery
…10-year Deal to Boost Local Production, Revamp Industrial Growth, reports Ikenna Oluka
The NNPC Gas Marketing Limited (NGML), a subsidiary of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited, has successfully executed a Gas Sale and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) with Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals FZE.
The agreement, signed by the Managing Director, NGML, Barr. Justin Ezeala and the President/CEO of the Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote on Tuesday at the Corporate Head Office of Dangote in Falomo, Lagos State, outlines the supply of natural gas for power generation and feedstock at the Dangote Refinery, in Ibeju-Lekki, Lagos State.
This major milestone is in line with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s policy of utilizing Nigeria’s abundant gas resources towards revamping the nation’s industrial growth and kickstarting its economic prosperity.
This development, which sees a huge investment of this nature penned with zero capital expenditure (CAPEX) outlay, has been described by many as unprecedented in the history of NGML or any gas Local Distribution Company (LDC) in the country.
Under the terms of the agreement, NGML will supply 100 million standard cubic feet per day (MMSCF/D), 50MMSCF/D being firm supply and the rest 50MMSCF/D interruptible natural gas supply to the refinery for an initial period of 10 years, with options for renewal and growth.
This collaboration is a significant step toward ensuring the operational success of the Dangote Refinery and enhancing Nigeria’s domestic gas utilization.
NNPC Ltd, through NGML, its gas marketing subsidiary, continues to lead efforts in promoting the use of domestic gas to support industries and businesses nationwide.
The agreement represents a milestone for both NNPC Ltd and Dangote Refinery, aligning with their shared commitment to boosting local production and providing vital products for the benefit of all Nigerians.
It is also a further proof of NGML’s unwavering commitment to business excellence and fulfilling NNPC Ltd’s core mandate of ensuring Nigeria’s energy security through the execution of strategic gas projects across the country.
Women in Maritime Africa (WIMAfrica), in a significant step forward for female representation in the Maritime field, held a strategic meeting with SIFAX Group at the SIFAX headquarters on November 12th, 2023.
The two organizations aim to foster mentorship, sponsorship, and skills development programs that will empower women to pursue and excel in maritime careers, where female representation remains below 1%. Key figures from WIMAfrica, including Continental Vice President Mrs. Carolyn Ufere and Nigeria’s President Mrs. Rollens Macfoy, emphasized the need for corporate partnerships to expand access to training and professional networks for women. SIFAX’s Coordinating Director, Mrs. Wunmi Eniola-Jegede, expressed the Group’s commitment to gender inclusivity and highlighted the presence of women in leadership roles across its various sectors.
In closing, WIMAfrica extended an invitation for SIFAX Group to support its upcoming conference in Lagos, themed “New Economy and Moving Forward for the Next Generation,” which seeks to inspire young women to explore maritime career paths like engineering and marine security. The collaboration between WIMAfrica and SIFAX Group marks a crucial move toward an inclusive future in Africa’s maritime industry.
… Mbah is godsent to Nsukka zone- Igwe Asadu
… You’ve proven yourself more Nsukka than any Nsukka man- Ezenta Ezeani
… Enugu has suddenly become a reference point for transformational projects – Dennis Agbo
… We’ll deliver on schedule and quality – Contractor
Governor of Enugu State, Dr. Peter Mbah, has flagged-off the construction and dualisation of the 43.7km Penoks-Abakpa Nike-Ugwogo-Nike-Opi Nsukka Road with streetlights and 18-month completion timeframe in line with his administration’s vision to make the state the premier destination for investment, business, tourism, and living.
Speaking during the flag-off ceremony at Opi attended by political heavy weights and leaders of Nsukka Zone, Mbah stressed that the the project, which includes straightening the of many bends, would drastically reduce accidents and criminality on the road.
“In the build-up to the election and in my acceptance speech after my election, we made a pledge that we are going to dualise the Penoks-Abakpa-Ugwogo-Opi-Nsukka Road because . we realised from the outset that if we had to grow this economy to an exponential height, no section of this state should be left behind, more so an economic hub like Nsukka Zone. So, all we are doing here today is connecting those dots,” he said.
Mbah regretted that a trip from Enugu to Nsukka presently takes over an hour, hence the decision to do the 3.6km from the Penoks Junction all the way to the T-Junction flyover in addition to the 41km Abakpa Nike-Opi Nsukka Road to reduce travel time to about 30 minutes and make it possible for the people to comfortably live and work in Enugu and vice versa.
He also noted that his administration’s grassroot-based development and economic model placed the Enugu North Zone at an advantage.
“We are doing projects based on electoral wards. Guess who are the greatest beneficiaries of this model? It is the Nsukka zone. You have 102 electoral wards. That means you will end up with 102 smart schools, 102 Type 2 Primary Healthcare Centres, over 1,000km of roads based since we are additionally going to do at least 10km of roads per ward,” he remarked.
In his remark, the traditional ruler of Edem-Ani and Chairman, Enugu State Traditional Rulers Council, Igwe Samuel Asadu, said, “The people of Nsukka cultural zone and Enugu North Senatorial District never imagined the possibility of this life-time project. The only way we can pay you back is that you do not need to come to campaign here for your second tenure because we are all going to do that for you. You are Godsent to the people of Nsukka, Enugu State and Nigeria at large.”
Also speaking, the Deputy Speaker of the Enugu State House of Assembly, Hon. Ezeani Ezenta, noted that the governor had shut the mouths of naysayers.
“I feel emotional because a lot of things were said during the election. But today, by your good work, you have proved yourself even more Nsukka than any other Nsukka man,” he emphasised.
On his part, former Deputy Governor of Enugu State, Chief Okechukwu Itanyi, described the project as “gigantic, huge, unbelievable and marvelous,” noting that it would open Nsukka Zone and the state to the world.
“This is a legacy project. Your name will never die. Your spirit shall never die. We will continue to give you support,” he added.
Other speakers, including the Chairman of Nsukka Nsukka LGA, Hon. Jude Asogwa, former Secretaries to the State Government, Dr. Dan Shere and Prof. Simon Ortuanya, among others extolled the initiative.
Significantly, in a press statement he personally issued on Monday, Member representing Igboeze North/Udenu Federal Constituency on the platform of the Labour Party, Hon. Dennis Agbo, described the road as “a transformational project, which will greatly facilitate commerce, ease mass transit and evacuation of farm produce by our hard working farmers as well as fight crime and criminality.“
“Our governor has clearly demonstrated his uncanny ability to see and unleash the enormous potential of our dear state and people. It is heartwarming to note that Enugu has suddenly become a frontline state and a reference point for transformational project initiatives,” he stated.
The Member representing Nkanu East/Nkanu West Federal Constituency and Leader of the Enugu State Caucus of the National Assembly, Hon
Nnoli Nnaji, expressed the total delight of the federal lawmakers at the governor’s development initiatives and pledged their total support for him to move the state forward.
Meanwhile the CEO of COMAG Construction Company, Cosmas Agu pledged to deliver a high quality project and on schedule.
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