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Analysis: Investors in cautious mode as U.S.-China trade war set to kick off

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Hussein Sayed, Chief Market Strategist at FXTM, comments on the looming U.S. tariffs.

Global equity and foreign exchange markets were relatively quiet on Wednesday as the U.S. financial markets were closed in observance of Independence Day. However, the looming U.S. tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese imports and the expected retaliation from China are keeping investors on edge.

The decision by the U.S. administration is expected to be taken on Friday and China is expected to retaliate immediately.

These tariffs will not take investors by surprise as they have had sufficient time to price them in; given that these measures are considered only a small portion of the U.S.- China trade’s value, the impact on growth and corporate earnings will be minimal.

The critical question markets need an answer on is – where is this trade war heading towards?  President Donald Trump had threatened to impose a further $200 billion in tariffs on Chinese imports, which China will respond to in equal measure.

If such measures are implemented, it will certainly lead to a meltdown in global equities, emerging markets currencies and debt.

With the current environment of uncertainty, expect risk-averse behavior to continue in the coming weeks.

Away from the political trade tensions, traders will be looking closely at the Fed minutes scheduled for release later today. In his last press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell was optimistic about the U.S.’s economic performance.

He expected gradual increases in the federal funds to resume, given the low unemployment levels and accelerating inflation. However, investors are keen to know whether the imposition of trade tariffs and similar reactions from trading partners will threaten his outlook.

On a different note, the dollar has appreciated 6.8% since its February lows. Such strength is expected to have a negative impact on price levels and exports.

Meanwhile, the yield curve has continued to flatten over the past several months, increasing the risk of a recession.

These factors have been ignored by the Fed so far, so today we will get to know whether any of these risks will hinder the Fed’s policy path, and whether the dollar will move accordingly.

On the data front, the U.S. ADP employment report is expected to show that 190 thousand jobs have been added to the economy, while the ISM non-manufacturing PMI for June is anticipated to retreat slightly to 58.3, down from 58.6 in the previous month.

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Finance

Godwin Emefiele Disobeyed Direction Of Law With Intent To Harm The Public, He Printed ₦684.5M Using ₦18.9B Says EFCC in fresh charge

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The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission has filed a fresh charge at the High Court of the Federal Capital Territory against the embattled former governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Godwin Emefiele.

EFCC in the charge accused Emefiele of approving the printing of N684,590,000 at the rate of N18.96 billion.

EFCC also alleged that Emefiele broke the law with intent to harm the public during his implementation of the naira swap policy of the administration of former President Muhammadu Buhari.

The anti-graft agency also accused Emefiele of unlawfully approving the withdrawal of N124.8 billion from the Consolidated Revenue Fund of the Federation.

EFCC’s top prosecutor, Rotimi Oyedepo, SAN revealed that Emefiele will be arraigned on a new four-count charge before Justice Hamza Muazu

Counts one to four of the charge, read,

“STATEMENT OF OFFENCE: Public Servant disobeying direction of law with intent to cause injury to the public contrary to and punishable under Section 123 of the Penal Code Law, Cap. 89 Laws of the Federation, 1990.

“PARTICULARS OF THE OFFENCE: That you GODWIN IFEANYI EMEFIELE between the 19th day of October 2022 and 5th March 2023 in Abuja, knowingly disobeyed the direction of Section 19 of the CBN Act, 2007, by approving the printing of N375,520,000.00 pieces of colour swapped N1, 000, at the total cost of N11,052, 068,062 without the recommendation of the Board of Central Bank and the strict approval of the President, Federal Republic of Nigeria which conduct of yours caused injury to the public and you thereby committed an offence.”

This and three other charges were stated against him. They read;

“COUNT 2: “That you, GODWIN IFEANYI EMEFIELE, between the 19th of October 2022 and 5th March 2023 in Abuja, knowingly disobeyed the direction of Section 19 of the Central Bank of Nigeria Act, 2007, by approving the printing of 172,000,000 pieces of colour swapped N500 (Five Hundred Naira) Notes, at the total cost of N4, 471,066,040 without the recommendation of the Board of Central Bank and the strict approval of the President, Federal Republic of Nigeria which conduct of yours caused injury to the public and you thereby committed an offence.

“COUNT 3: “That you GODWIN IFEANYI EMEFIELE between the 19th day of October 2022 and 5th March 2023 in Abuja, knowingly disobeyed the direction of Section 19 of the CBN Act, 2007, by approving the printing of 137,070,000 pieces of colour swapped N200 (Two Hundred Naira) Note, at the total cost of N3, 441, 005, 280 without the recommendation of the Board of Central Bank and the strict approval of the President, Federal Republic of Nigeria which conduct of yours caused injury to the public and you thereby committed an offence.”

“COUNT 4: “That you, GODWIN IFEANYI EMEFIELE, on or about the 7th day of October 2020, in Abuja, within the jurisdiction of this Honorable Court, knowingly disobeyed the direction of Section 80 of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, 1999 (As Amended), by approving the withdrawal of the total sum of N124, 860, 227, 865.16 from the Consolidated Revenue Fund of the Federation in a manner not prescribed by the National Assembly, which conduct of yours caused injury to the public and you thereby committed an offence.”

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Transport

Federal Government To Launch Out 2700 CNG Buses, Tricycles Ahead Of First anniversary Of Tinubu’s Administration

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The Presidency on Sunday said it was ready to launch about 2,700 CNG-powered buses and tricycles before May 29 when President Bola Tinubu turns one year in office.

“All is now ready for delivery of the first set of critical assets for deployment and launch of the CNG initiative ahead of the first anniversary of the Tinubu administration on May 29.”

It said the Federal Government is set to deliver 100 conversion workshops and 60 refuelling sites spread across 18 states before the end of 2024.

The Special Adviser to the President on Information and Strategy, Mr. Bayo Onanuga, revealed this in a statement he signed Sunday titled ‘Presidential CNG initiative set for rollout.’

“From the end of May, Nigeria will take some baby steps to join such nations that already have large fleets of CNG vehicles.

The CNG tricycle
The CNG buses

“All is now ready for delivery of the first set of critical assets for deployment and launch of the CNG initiative ahead of the first anniversary of the Tinubu administration on May 29.

“About 2,500 of the tricycles will be ready before May 29, 2024…working towards delivering 200 units before the first anniversary of the Tinubu administration,” said the Presidency.

He also said that over 600 buses are targeted for production in the first phase which will be accomplished in 2024.

In October 2023, about five months after the removal of the petrol subsidy, President Tinubu launched the Presidential CNG Initiative to deliver cheaper, safer and more climate-friendly energy.

The CNG Initiative was designed to deliver compressed natural gas, especially for mass transit.

The Federal Government earmarked N100bn (part of the N500bn palliative budget) to purchase 5500 CNG vehicles (buses and tricycles), 100 Electric buses and over 20,000 CNG conversion kits, with plans to develop CNG refilling stations and electric charging stations nationwide.

The FG had said the initiative would ease the burden of the increased pump price on the masses.More information added that the creation of a new plant on the Lagos-Ibadan Expressway that will assemble the tricycles while Brilliant EV will assemble electric vehicles when it receives the Semi Knocked Down components.

The Presidency explained further, “The SKD parts manufactured by the Chinese company LUOJIA in partnership with its local partner to support the consortium of local suppliers of CNG tricycles are set for shipment to Nigeria and expected to arrive early in May.

It is expected that before 2027, There’ll be a considerable wave of these buses and tricycles in use.

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Finance

Immigration Office Place Ex Governor, Yahaya Bello On Watchlist While IG Of Police Withdraws All Police Officers Attached To Him

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The Inspector General of Police, Olukayode Egbetokun, has withdrawn all police officers attached to the embattled former Governor of Kogi State, Yahaya Bello.

The order for the withdrawal was contained in a police wireless message. The document with reference number:

“CB:4001/DOPS/PMF/FHQ/ABJ/VOL.48/ 34 reads in part;“IG has ordered the withdrawal of all policemen attached to His Excellency and former Executive Governor of Kogi State, Alhaji Yahaya Bello. Acknowledge compliance and treat with utmost importance.

Please, above, for your information and strict compliance.”

Meanwhile, the Nigerian Immigration Service has placed the former governor on its watchlist.

This comes after the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission on Thursday, April 18, declared him wanted in connection to an alleged case of money laundering to the tune of N80.2bn.

From EFCC

In a circular signed by an Assistant Comptroller of Immigration, DS Umar, for the Comptroller-General, Kemi Nandap, the NIS detailed the former governor’s name, nationality, and passport number.

From National Immigration Office

And read;

“I am directed to inform you that the above-named person has been placed on the watch list.

Suffice to mention that the subject is being prosecuted before the Federal High Court Abuja for conspiracy, breach of trust, and money laundering vide letter Ref; CR; 3000/EFCC/LS/EGCS.1/ TE/Vide/1/279 dated April 18, 2024.

If seen at any entry or exit point, he should be arrested and referred to the Director of Investigation or contact 08036226329/07039617304 for further action.” the circular reads in part.

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